I think if its weekend is in the $80-85 million range (my original prediction), it will have a 3.1 or so multiplier. But if the hype continues to build and it reaches $90+ million for the weekend and possibly even $100 million, that is a definite sign of more frontloading even if it's a very good movie. If it gets to around a $100 million opening, a 2.6 or 2.7 is likely.

I dont see how it will drop under 100 million opening weekend unless it moves to a Wednesday. Its marketing has been too effective and seen by too many people. Barring some collapse-like no tv spots or something-its breaking 100 million 3 day no problem. The media frenzy surrounding the release will give way to annoyance-level of awareness. The films opening weekend will be the climax of the circus that has been the dark knight's promo campaign.

man, he more i watch this trailer the more i love it. My only real complaints would be:

1. lack of REAL money shots. the only one would be the truck flip, the tumblers crashing down infront of us in the tunnel ater being blown up from behind, and the final one of bats gluiding.

2. poor joke. for real, that lamborghini line aint that good.

However, the feel is just soooooo good! I looks more like a huge crowd pleertan superhero epic

There are some insane predictions around here. Is this really the Dark Knight thread? The movie's going to be far too dark to do business similar to PotC and Spider-Man.

I think people have to be a bit more realistic - its a darker film and though the opening will be huge - Its no lock for $300m. At this stage i'd say $275m is a lock, from there it will depend on how good the film is.

However, I think its biggest advantage is that its released late in the summer with minimal competition. I think that will help it greatly.

$275 million is a lock? I think THAT is pretty optimistic. The only thing I'll call a lock at this point is $225 million, which is what Begins adjusts to in 2008.

buzz for this is 100x that of begins. it is a lock for 250 millionn, 275 is very probable.

400m+

So is this opening on a Friday or a wed?

Im thinking that if Begins opened on a Friday it probably would have opened around 70 million. I think this film is a little too dark to hit 100 million, but I think it does have a chance. I will say that unlike Begins, this does have A LOT of demographic competition in the following weeks.

X-Files 2, Step Brothers, and the new Mummy.

95-105 open
255-285 close

I really think this is one of the easier films to predict this year.

110 / 300

The trailer kicked my ass to the curb. I'm gonna wait to see Iron Man over the next few weeks before revising my total prediction, but I'm gonna say a $110+ million opening now.

My current prediction:

Opening Weekend - $115.5 million

Total Gross - $316 million

Lecter, that would be fan-fucking-tastic if it could pull that off.

Opening Weekend - $100 million

Total Gross - $265 million

The Iron Man performance has me thinking this can probably pull in slightly higher numbers than I've been expecting.

$110 million Opening Weekend
$315 million Domestic Total

The increase over Begins would be in between the X-Men-to-X2 and Matrix-to-Matrix Reloaded increases, which have both been brought up as comparisons in the thread. And considering that the trailer has "July 18" at the end of it, I think it's probably a good bet that it's staying on Friday.

Batman Begins was moved at the last second. So was Superman Returns. So was Iron Man. So was Potter last year. And on and on. I don't trust studios anymore, particularly WB. But hey, the earlier the better I guess.

Oh, I'd love for it to be on Wednesday, especially seeing as I'm leaving for California for a week that weekend. I could still go on Friday, but I'd rather have a couple more days to see it before I leave that Saturday.

It will make it easier to see it on the weekend, that's for sure. I'm probably going to fly to Houston to see my parents so I can see the movie in IMAX. No way in hell am I going to bother with a regular theater the first time I see this movie, not after I paid $13 just to see the prologue in IMAX (left as soon as it was over lol).

I just noticed something while watching the trailer with my speakers cranked. Listen closely to the music in the background when Bruce is talking to Rachel on the balcony and she rejects him. That music is NOT from Begins so it's bound to be TDK music. Sounds kickass to me. I was blown away by Zimmer's AWE score and I hope he and Howard have pulled another great one with TDK just like they did with BB.

I think there is some low-balling going on in here.

OW- 140 mil
Total- 375 mil (with great % drops and July weekdays)

I think $335 million is the ceiling for this. That's the same percentage Matrix Reloaded increased over The Matrix, which I think is the most Dark Knight can increase over Batman Begins. And at this point, I don't think it will get there.

I don't either, but what is your reason?

I think it's just too huge an increase. It could get there, but at this point, I just see it being too frontloaded to pass the $315-320 million range (which is already pretty close to the 335 mark anyway). The Bourne sequels have proven that huge late summer openers can be very leggy, but neither one of them opened over the $100 million mark that Dark Knight could definitely pass.

Yes, it is a huge increase. Matrix probably had slightly better WOM than BB so I would expect a bigger increase for its sequel, though Matrix Reloaded was insanely frontloaded for a 2003 movie. If TDK can pull a miracle and exceed its genre by being a sweeping crime drama, which is what it looks like to me, it could have some decent legs considering. But overall it's bound to be frontloaded as hell no matter how good it is.

130M OW/330M . it will be front loaded for sure bcos of tremondous awarness and so people would be flocking to see it 1st weekend.