Esimated delegate counts after wyoming, Mississippi:
Obama: 1608
Clinton: 1480

In Pennsylvania, I will give Hillary 90 delegates to Obamas 68, a 57-43 win for Hillary.

In North Carolina, I will have them split. Obama leads polls big early, and Hillary has never won a state where Obama lead in polls early. She has 1 place where he lead in most polls leading up to , which was New Hampshire. Even Texas polls final averge on RCP had Hillary winning by 2% average. So, assuming Hillary does the so far impossible and catches Obama in North Carolina and they split the delegates, i touwld go 59 for Hillary, 57 for Obama.

Totals right now would be:

Obama: 1733:
Clinton: 1629

Now in Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, and Kentucky, I will give Hillary 56%-44% wins.
That adds 89 to Obama, and 114 to Hillary's.

Totals so far:
Obama: 1822
Clinton: 1743

I'll give her 60%-40% wins in South Dakota and Montana. Thats would give her an additional 18 delegates to Obamas 12.

The only remaining place would be Puerto Rico. If she win 65-35, that gives her 36 and Obama 19.

Final totals:
Obama: 1853
Clinton: 1797

Theres an estimates 500 super delegates left and Obama needs 172 while she needs 228. She would have to convince 65% of the super delegates to go AGAINST the voters. Which is not happening.

Just for fun, I will add in Florida and Michigan.

Florida has 210 delegates, Hillary got 50% to Obama 33% in January. Edwards took 14%. Now, obviously it would be closer. Given the demos, it screams another Cali. Ill give Hillary 56%-44%.

Michigan has 156 delegates and current polls have them tied. Ill say Hillary wins, 54-46. The 2 states would give hillary 191 more delagates, and would give Obama 165 more.

The totals would be the following:

Clinton: 1988
Obama: 2018

Again, its still OVER. Obama would only need 7 supers to go his way. There would not be very many left, but 7 would still be a smalle rnumber of that amount. And thats WORST case scenario really. NC wont go 59-57 for Hillary, it will likely go around 87-73 area for Obama. If polls right now have them tied in Michigan, it would seem unlikely Hillarys pulls out a big win. Also i assumed all were primaries. if there are any upcoming cuacus's, obama should win them.

Is there a Clintin supporter out there who can logically refute this? Again, if Florida and Michigan do indeed revote, it will defiently narrow the gap...but they would more than likely also push Obama over 2025.

EXACTEMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I've got 20$ with a parent on this and they think Hillary still has a chance to be the nominee even though I keep telling him it's not bloody likely at this point (I keep suggesting I be paid now too). Bravo for summing things up nicely and putting it as crystal clear as possible to the doubters. Obama is going to have a majority of the delegates, the popular vote and states won. He is going to be the dem nominee barring some unforeseen problem like a scandal (someone real, not the rezko non issue) or injury.

word, whats even better is how incredibly clinton favored it it is.

Chances of Hillary winning every other state? 0%
Chances of Hillary wining NC? Not good,
Chanes of Hillary winning by those margins everywhere? 0%
Chances of Hillary winning a Michan CUACUS when their tied in polls by 85? 0%

So, yes, please by all means, FLORIDA-MICHIGAN-REVOTE! Yall will be the ones who push Barack over 2025!!

i know yall looking too.... EAGLE, corpse, loyal, no country for old sam.

I await a response

You know I am kinda divided.

To me whoever wins is great.

If Obama wins then it would be a victory for the african-american community as he will be the first from that community to be the president of USA.

If Hilary wins then again it would be a very good thing since she will be the first female to become president of USA.

Yes, but neitehr of these are reasons for voting for either one.

I mean, Jesse Jackson would have been the 1st African-American President too but I never supported him, and I wouldn't vote for Elizabeth Dole either...

You fail to address a few things:

1) If things stay as they are, and Florida and Michigan don't have their delegates count, then Obama is just as mathematically implausible to win as Clinton. This would thus leave it to super delegates to decide, and super delegates favor Clinton.

2) If Florida and Michigan DO get to have their delegates count, the likely scenario says that there would still be a penalty of some sort, likely a 50% reduction in delegates, which again, makes it mathematically implausible for either candidate to win, again sending it to the super delegates who favor Clinton. Even worse is if these two states re-vote, and Clinton wins both. Because even with her behind, she will have won just about every major state, again, giving her more party leverage.

I could go on, but Obama supporters just keep blindly looking at their lead, and saying things like "You can't go against the popular vote," which, I have a funny feeling they may learn to be not true ... the hard way.

I wanna see you're super delegates stats Eagle...

I want EVERY voter.

Some interesting super delegate info:

If Florida and Michigan get seated, and their super delegates get to vote, they will likely break an estimated 2-1 for Clinton. 15 have endorsed Clinton already, compared to 5 for Obama. Others are expected to break similarly.

Its also interesting they all endorsed her about 6 months ago.; Now that shes losing they wont break similary for her n its honestly hilarious you expect them to. Whats more interesting is if these guys wont swich to him if Obama takes their counties. 6 of them did that last month; make the switch from hillary to obama because of their counties.

And no, she wont be taking them 2-1. like every other big state, the delegates are proportional. like cali, like ohio, like texas, obama owns big cities that have the most delegates therefore she wins less of a% of the delegates than she does votes.



No, he isn't. EITHER WAY he has the lead in delegates or votes, if fla n michigan count his lead is bigger but hes further away from 2025 if they count. And again, NO the super delelagtes done favor clinton. febuary he was +104 for them, she was -6...

The reality is they are her ONLY shot, you guys interpret that as they automatically likew her. As the number show from last month, thats not the case.



Again, the super delegatres dont favor clinton. thats yall living in lala land. last month he added 107, she lost 6. Thats a fact dont even try to argue it just admit yoru wrong and thats it.



Clinton sup-porters are far more blind and if the party goes against the voters and gives it clinton thinking that being the less popular candidate somehow translate to a white house win, theyll findits not true ... the hard way.

Bottom line, the reality is that heading into the convention, oabam will need around 50-75 of the supers while she'll; need atleast 150. She defiently convince some to comeover and close the gap, the fact is hell find 50 or 100 of em them.

If Obama winning 11 in a row didn't convince delegates to pledge for him, what makes you think losing a few more key states is going to help?

It did convince them, during that streak he was +107 and she -6, all 6 that went to him and there are atleast 50 that were ready to pldge but are now going to wait just to see if the voters make Hillary the winner. Again, those 50 would put him the super delegate lead, too. Shes had over 140 that went to her since before NOVEMBER because she was "inevitable". Since the caucus n primary season started....i believe shes in the negatives.

thats why to say they are breaking for is very incorrect, and if they are exoected to go as they have, that favors obama. bigtime.

Delegates can change their minds at any time. Don't you think it'd be dumb, Crazy, INSANE when they go to the convention and the person who has 1. the most delegates 2. the most votes 3. the most states and they say "No, I disagree with all the above and my money is on Clinton." This is preposterous to even think they would consider that At That Point. As a republican, however, if the dems want to blow themselves up then go right ahead but even I can see that dumb voter conscious politicians will make the right....no....OBVIOUS choice in the end and make Obama the nominee.

Look, I'm not trying to sit here and say "Clinton is gonna win!" I just think that a lot of the Obama supporters on this board are blind to reality. They seem to believe their candidate has the nomination 100% secured, and that Clinton has no chance, and it's just not true.

Could Obama win? Sure. But I think it's time a lot of you realize that he CAN go into the convention with a delegate lead and not walk out with the nomination.

by rule he could lose, but is it likely or realistic? hell no. math shows it. to lose hillarys have to get literally EVERY SINGLE SUPER DELEGATE and you have realize that a large amount wlil simply follow the vote, they have said they will.

I honestly think barring some dirty backdoor deals that would make James Blaine and Henry Clay proud the super delegates will break even and neither will have enough and there will be a brokered convention which helps no one. Also Howard Dean will not allow Michigan and Florida to count. I think he basically said over his dead body. He is up for a revote but at those two states expense.

I think we see it (or at least i do) not so much as he has it 100% secured but that he has it 100% secured unless the Democratic party wants to implode - which given their history of screwing up their chances they might.

Republicans could get away with this whole woo the superdelegates and crown the person who isn't leading strategy but Democrats have to live up to their self perception as the people's party.

Holy god man, get off the delegates!

Face reality, if they get to the convention and neither has enough to win, they might as well both have 0, because delegates no longer matter a lick!

It will be a brokered convention, the candidates negotiate with each other behind closed doors until a deal is reached and then direct their delegates on how to vote. Anything can happen once it gets to that point, anything, and the Clintons are a very powerful democratic family.

It will be the super delegates that are switching votes to swing it, and logic says if the majority favor Clinton, chances are better that the majority wins.

Again, you're not getting it. You keep talking about what technically could happen but you are ignoring the psychology of the situation.

If you're in a room where 600 people want one thing, and 400 want another, I don't care about the psychology, majority normally wins.

Well I think anything can happen and I wouldn't rule Obama out. We don't how much sway Al Gore, Howard Dean and John Edwards will play. All three men probably hate the Clintons. One of them could pull a James Blane and work it for Obama.

no, they mide as well not have 0. Thats where clinton supporters get it wrong because not the likely way but the ONLY way she can win.

whoever goes in with the most votes and pledged delegates will go in with a large advantage because the majorityof the delegates will be voting based on what the people hae said and even if the people say its close, ONE OF THEM will be winning in pledged delegates and votes. and the mathematical fact is, whoever that is wont need a smany super delegates to vote for em as the 2nd place. even if hillary can convince 60% of the super delegates to go against the popular vote n pldged delegates it still not be enough and the chances her actually getting that many are very slim.

the only way she can win is if people bu into this attitude of "whoever gets the most votes and pledged delegates dont matter". Thing is, that everyone country believes whoever gets the most points in anything wins. You guys can say and hope that at this point delegates dont matter but they do, they are the only way to get the nomination.

Oh, I don't rule Obama out at all. He has a great shot, I just get frustrated when people act like it's a done deal. It's not.

It'll be interesting if they seat the delegates from Florida and Michigan and neither has enough to win. Boy Obama and Clinton will both become Edwards best friend real quick.

wait what? You just said whoever has the most delegates doesnt matter if its close, but now you have said it doesnt matter how close, majority normally wins.

well thats not hypocritical...

Mista Nasty Time, there are hundreds of delegates that use the popular vote to decide. They will all be allocated by the time the convention starts. No one cares about them.

Super delegates will be the ones who switch from one side to the other, and decide the election, not the pledged delegates. The whole point of super delegates was so the democratic leadership could make the decision in the event of a close race, like this one.

They are not obligated in any way to vote based on the popular vote, the way their state voted, or the way you want them to vote.

Well I am not a big Obama supporter although he is my choice now. But I agree with you it could get either way at this point. It is now starting to resemble the old party elections before primaries when the Party bosses decided who the nominee would be.