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2024 election - Second Republican debate
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=87779		 Page 12 of 28
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
I really hope Trump loses the primary if he runs lol. Regardless of the J6 hearings, there are a million Republicans who are as effective policy wise without the drama and baggage that comes with him.
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
zwackerm wrote:
I really hope Trump loses the primary if he runs lol. Regardless of the J6 hearings, there are a million Republicans who are as effective policy wise without the drama and baggage that comes with him.


Agreed
Author:  Rev [ Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
zwackerm wrote:
I really hope Trump loses the primary if he runs lol. Regardless of the J6 hearings, there are a million Republicans who are as effective policy wise without the drama and baggage that comes with him.


YES!!!! :hahaha: That would be hilarious
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Jul 26, 2022 11:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Democrats should want Trump to win the primary. He has among the worst chances to win in the general, and even if he managed to win in 2024, he'd guarantee the party loses in 2028 like they lost in 2020 since he does so much damage to the Republican party in the eyes of moderates.
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
So…DeSantis 2024?
Author:  Shack [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Trump's chances of both running and winning have gone up as a result of the raid
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Shack wrote:
Trump's chances of both running and winning have gone up as a result of the raid


I would have agreed with you prior to Thursday, but now it just seems like a delusion.
Author:  Excel [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
These are serious things, and this now the 3rd serious criminal investigation angle into DT after 1/6 and Georgia.

Republicans will no doubt wait until after midterms to make a real decision. But seeing as things have decisively swung back in favor of the Dems as of late, if midterms do not go so hot for them, I think there will be more enthusiasm for turning there page.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Shack wrote:
Trump's chances of both running and winning have gone up as a result of the raid


I would have agreed with you prior to Thursday, but now it just seems like a delusion.


I'm assuming that that nuclear codes story has no legs. That was merely the left wing biased media desperately trying to run cover for the Democrats and throwing red meat to the Trump derangement syndrome lunatics in places like r/politics so they click on their articles. In my mind WaPo is one of the many previously trusted media outlets that have long since transitioned from journalism to one party propaganda.

As I alluded to in the other thread, I'd like to hope that the pool of people who actually believe stuff like this, "Trump grabbed the steering wheel", "Trump called the military losers and suckers", "Trump asked why his generals aren't more like Hitler's" (Washington Post just put this out this week!) etc. decreases a little bit every year. There is only so long you can run the same game on people before SOME of them catch on each time.

Removing that story, it sounds like it's pretty normal for all presidents to keep records, and he had the power to declassify anything he wanted before he left. If there was a mistake taking back classified things, it was as likely to be a packing mistake by his staff, and the FBI treating this as to be dealt with by subpoenas earlier this year and being met with a fully cooperate Trump at the time was all they needed to do to get them back.

Edit - As for the whole "Espionage Act" thing going around now, my impression is that the warrant says he was under investigation for "Gathering, transmitting or losing defence information" and then some people are interpreting that as Espionage Act. So I guess they could try to come up with something. If it's a reach though like something like trying to charge him for espionage act for accidentally losing a defense document, the majority of people would be able to see through it that the Democrats are just looking for any opportunity to eliminate their main political rival third world country style. They would need to have something legitimate or else they would be destroying themselves in the process.
Author:  Excel [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Shack, I believe the warrant actually references the espionage act specifically.

So many of DT's former scandals have been omore issues with optics and things in poor taste. This is, without question, the most serious legal predicament a former President has faced in a long, long time. They only "raided" Mar-a-lago because DT did NOT turn off these docs when they were initially requested.

This is a very, very bad look for him. If/when these items escalate, any GOPer who stands by is going to look really bad.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Excel wrote:
Shack, I believe the warrant actually references the espionage act specifically.


My impression is this is what it says in the warrant



Reporters like an MSNBC guy then read the 793 one as being the Espionage Act, which I think it kind of is but not exactly, if I'm not mistaken.

Still it's not a surprise that they would have searching for defense documents in the warrant, so I'm not sure if it means anything.
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
So, you haven’t read it, but assume you know what it says based off a Tweet summary
Author:  Excel [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
Shack, I believe the warrant actually references the espionage act specifically.


My impression is this is what it says in the warrant



Reporters like an MSNBC guy then read the 793 one as being the Espionage Act, which I think it kind of is but not exactly, if I'm not mistaken.

Still it's not a surprise that they would have searching for defense documents in the warrant, so I'm not sure if it means anything.


What? The exact laws are noted in the warrant. So much of the hate trump gets is exaggerated, as it is for every politician. This is not. Are you ever going to learn to view these things for what they are through the reality lens?

DT appears to broken numerous high-consequence laws. The FBI, DOJ, and numerous others are in agreement about this. Hellen Keller could read the writing on the wall for what is likely ro come next. This is remarkably bad for him.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
So, you haven’t read it, but assume you know what it says based off a Tweet summary


On second thought I don't think my original point about it not literally saying "Espionage Act" in it was a very meaningul one anyway. It seems like it's valid to just read "18 USC 793" as meaning Espionage Act or close enough at least.

The only reason the search warrant would matter though is if you trust the FBI to be doing it for legitimate reasons. If they're just doing it for political witchhunt reasons as Trump claims or to throw a hail mary hoping to catch anything that could be used to ban him from running, it doesn't really matter what they put in the warrant. They're going to want to put something strong in it anyways to justify themselves.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Excel wrote:
DT appears to broken numerous high-consequence laws. The FBI, DOJ, and numerous others are in agreement about this. Hellen Keller could read the writing on the wall for what is likely ro come next. This is remarkably bad for him.


Well last I checked nothing has come out about what they actually found

I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats try to charge him or ban him from running as they are clearly desperate to do anything to eliminate their top polling rival for 2024, but if they do my guess it would be on flimsy means to all sane people, like finding some random classified document that snuck through that it's unclear was on purpose. Why would Trump intentionally take any classified documents back on purpose when he had the power to declassify them?
Author:  Excel [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
DT appears to broken numerous high-consequence laws. The FBI, DOJ, and numerous others are in agreement about this. Hellen Keller could read the writing on the wall for what is likely ro come next. This is remarkably bad for him.


Well last I checked nothing has come out about what they actually found

I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats try to charge him or ban him from running as they are clearly desperate to do anything to eliminate their top polling rival for 2024, but if they do my guess it would be on flimsy means to all sane people, like finding some random classified document that snuck through.


What are you talking about? I think the dems would love is Trump was the 2024 nominee. Trump lost the GOP the presidency, senate, and house in a span of 4 years- and this was before 1/6. He was and is remarkably unpopular.
Author:  Corpse [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Well... Trump's side of the GOP has been very successful voting out the party members who voted for his impeachment (I think only 2 have survived). And Trump has a comfortable lead over DeSantis and others in polling and the straw votes.

Now... primaries aren't representative of the party as a whole. And you can argue the straw votes from CPAC and such aren't either. They've been overrun with the MAGA crowd. But, the more traditional Republicans have done little/nothing to push back against it because they fear losing their seats (like those that voted to impeach Trump). Hell, if reports are correct, Liz Cheney isn't being allowed to even campaign in Wyoming due to safety concerns ahead of her primary next week.

Since his loss, despite being unfavorable, Trump has at least maintained his grip over the GOP, if not extended his reach further.

We'll see how this plays out in the midterms where many of his picks that won their primaries are expected to do poorly in the general. Take the Senate. PA, GA, OH, and AZ nominated crappy candidates just because they're MAGA and were Trump endorsed. They might be the worst group of nominees ever. If the GOP fails to win the Senate, traditional Republicans they can blame it on Trump and MAGA supporters and *maybe* try to move away from them. You probably wouldn't want the guy who endorsed unelectable candidates, costing you the Senate (again), at the top of the ticket... or at least you shouldn't. Same goes for big Governor races like in PA and AZ, too, where some wackos got nominated.

Now, IF the majority of the MAGA candidates win in the general this year, Trump will further cement himself as the only choice in 2024 (assuming he runs, is eligible, etc.).
Author:  Excel [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Biden just had a gigantically successful month. The stock market, jobs report, inflation report, numerous major pieces of legislation. Factor in the exceptionally unpopular ruling against Roe and the GOP enthusiasm has been decisively blunted, Yes, we are 2 months from midterms so a lot can happen, but the dynamic has without swung away from GOP as of late.

538 is now somewhat optimistic that Dems keep the senate while odds of Dems keeping the house have doubled, though they are still not great.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Excel wrote:
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
DT appears to broken numerous high-consequence laws. The FBI, DOJ, and numerous others are in agreement about this. Hellen Keller could read the writing on the wall for what is likely ro come next. This is remarkably bad for him.


Well last I checked nothing has come out about what they actually found

I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats try to charge him or ban him from running as they are clearly desperate to do anything to eliminate their top polling rival for 2024, but if they do my guess it would be on flimsy means to all sane people, like finding some random classified document that snuck through.


What are you talking about? I think the dems would love is Trump was the 2024 nominee. Trump lost the GOP the presidency, senate, and house in a span of 4 years- and this was before 1/6. He was and is remarkably unpopular.


He is easily polling the best and has clear impact on endorsements (and the Republicans who go against him get voted out). He probably just has to maintain his 2020 popularity to win since the odds are 2024 Biden/Harris/Buttigieg/Newsom/etc. will be weaker candidate than 2020 Biden. I don't think it's worth it for them to go all out like this against him since there's pros and cons to him in 24 instead of DeSantis, but they're not guaranteed to be acting rationally. Trump to me is the ultimate matador. He has exposed so much about the dark part of the left and the Democrats just by making them so mad that their mask comes off.
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Excel wrote:
Shack wrote:
Excel wrote:
DT appears to broken numerous high-consequence laws. The FBI, DOJ, and numerous others are in agreement about this. Hellen Keller could read the writing on the wall for what is likely ro come next. This is remarkably bad for him.


Well last I checked nothing has come out about what they actually found

I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats try to charge him or ban him from running as they are clearly desperate to do anything to eliminate their top polling rival for 2024, but if they do my guess it would be on flimsy means to all sane people, like finding some random classified document that snuck through.


What are you talking about? I think the dems would love is Trump was the 2024 nominee. Trump lost the GOP the presidency, senate, and house in a span of 4 years- and this was before 1/6. He was and is remarkably unpopular.


Seriously! The GOP was doing great with their Youngskin types running on culture war bs and blaming the economy on Democrats. Now, for the first time, there seems to be a shift in the narrative going into the midterms. Trump lost the House, the Senate, and the Presidency. Particularly interesting is the Senate which seemed like a near lock following election night. His rhetoric led directly to that loss and it seems like history is starting to repeat itself.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Excel wrote:
Biden just had a gigantically successful month. The stock market, jobs report, inflation report, numerous major pieces of legislation.


Whether the legislation is a win depends who you ask. I am sure some of the voters who's number 1 issue is inflation are not happy that they're spending more money and raising taxes right now.

Meanwhile Trump is saying that he had a "standing order" that everything that goes from the white house to Mar a Lago was automatically declassified.
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
You can’t just declassify after the fact. I think he is starting to lose his mind. Considering this is coming from the courts and not elected officials, this is entirely different than the Mueller stuff.
Author:  Excel [ Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Shack wrote:
He is easily polling the best and has clear impact on endorsements (and the Republicans who go against him get voted out). He probably just has to maintain his 2020 popularity to win since the odds are 2024 Biden/Harris/Buttigieg/Newsom/etc. will be weaker candidate than 2020 Biden. I don't think it's worth it for them to go all out like this against him since there's pros and cons to him in 24 instead of DeSantis, but they're not guaranteed to be acting rationally. Trump to me is the ultimate matador. He has exposed so much about the dark part of the left and the Democrats just by making them so mad that their mask comes off.


The success of Trump's primary endorsements are the one of the reasons midterm polling has swung in their favor - like Trump, their appeal to suburban moderates is non-existent. Trump is now to the Republicans what Bernie Sanders was to the Dems 2017-2019. Their most famous candidate and one who does very well in many Republican based polls, but someone who most understand has zero chance in an open general election. That DT is ahead of DeSantis in primary polls right now is irrelevant. Trump is a known toxic commodity. DeSantis isn't. Desantis might turn out to be that way in the end, but he is not there yet. If Republicans want an actual chance to win, they will need a TV friendly moderate who can compete with Biden/Buttigieg in suburbs aka someone who is the antiTrump, otherwise it is highly likely they lose.
Author:  Excel [ Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Shack wrote:
Whether the legislation is a win depends who you ask. I am sure some of the voters who's number 1 issue is inflation are not happy that they're spending more money and raising taxes right now.


The legislation is universally popular. The loss of abortion right is universally unpopular and being blamed on Repubs. Whose taxes are you even referring to?

I am a independent moderate who does not hate Trump and just calls things like they clearly are to casual observer. This has been a brutal 8 week stretch for Republicans as the Dems have ran the table on major policy. Biden went from near death to basically triumphant very quickly.

The death of Covid. Roaring employment and stock markets. Infrastructure. Climate change. Gun legislation. Cheaper prescription drugs. Computer chips. Ukraine response a major success for American intelligence credibility. NATO much stronger. The right side of the abortion debate. Student loans likely incoming.

If one compared this to the 2017-2018 session for Republicans, who got virtually nothing accomplished aside from the big tax cut, the Dems have dramatically outperformed them to a frankly stunning degree. McConnell's feat with the Supreme Court is indeed an epic political accomplishment, but he was letdown by chaotic colleagues. Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, Manchin and co. have put their experience on display as of late and they get a lot of credit for that.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2024 election
Excel wrote:
Trump is now to the Republicans what Bernie Sanders was to the Dems 2017-2019.Their most famous candidate and one who does very well in many Republican based polls, but someone who most understand has zero chance in an open general election..


Unlike Bernie who never came close to a primary Trump already won an election and even if things were on the level, came pretty close in 2nd one to the point where you could claim covid messing up the strong economy which is normally the best way to get re-elected, may have been the difference.

He has a lower ceiling than DeSantis but a high floor being a proven commodity over 2 elections and having a loyal base. As I said my take would be this is potentially the right election to have a high floor if the Democrats 2024 candidate is not very strong.
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