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 GOP 2024 
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Post Re: GOP 2024
The amount of Anti Trump people in America is much larger than the hardcore democrats base, running him is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:16 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
zwackerm wrote:
The amount of Anti Trump people in America is much larger than the hardcore democrats base, running him is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.


95% of the orange man bad people are never going to vote Republican anyways and CNN and co. is going to convince them the next Republican candidate is worse than Trump

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:44 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Shack wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
The amount of Anti Trump people in America is much larger than the hardcore democrats base, running him is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.


95% of the orange man bad people are never going to vote Republican anyways and CNN and co. is going to convince them the next Republican candidate is worse than Trump


Disagree, I know tons of Romney/McCain voters that voted for Biden this election.

You think Biden got 81m votes because the Democrats are that popular? No the Democratic base is probably about the 66-69m that Clinton/Obama got. Trump is just so hated by everyone that didn’t vote for him that they voted Biden just to get him out of office, not because they like Democrats.

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:56 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
The media already treats Desantis like he’s terrible but the worst dirt they’ve been able to get on him is that he vaccinated Republican seniors instead of letting them die because he just wants their votes, and made fun of the python catching competition he sponsored in the Everglades. His Covid response is the most popular in the nation, he is the main reason everyone is moving there.

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 3:02 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
zwackerm wrote:
Shack wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
The amount of Anti Trump people in America is much larger than the hardcore democrats base, running him is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.


95% of the orange man bad people are never going to vote Republican anyways and CNN and co. is going to convince them the next Republican candidate is worse than Trump


Disagree, I know tons of Romney/McCain voters that voted for Biden this election.

You think Biden got 81m votes because the Democrats are that popular? No the Democratic base is probably about the 66-69m that Clinton/Obama got. Trump is just so hated by everyone that didn’t vote for him that they voted Biden just to get him out of office, not because they like Democrats.


Ideally both Trump and DeSantis would run along with other people like Pence Haley Cruz etc. then and if there is so much anti-Trump voters then DeSantis or someone else should beat Trump. I don't love the idea of the Republicans just clearing out of the way of defacto nominee Trump which it looks like they're going to do cause they don't want to make an enemy of Trump voters for future elections. Reminds me of Democrats in 2016 trying to coronate Hillary which was their biggest mistake as if f Biden ran in 2016 he would have beat Hillary in primary and probably beaten Trump in general.

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 3:56 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Doubt Biden would have defeated Clinton in 2016 since Clinton likely would have edged him out with the black voter (and minorities in general) support as Obama would have stayed out of it. If anything, it might have given Sanders more of an opportunity to have won it since Clinton and Biden would have been splitting some votes in the southern states. It almost certainly would have been a contested convention that year if Biden had ran since neither Clinton or Biden would have won by big enough margins in the south on Super Tuesday.

For Democrats, their primary is decided by the south. The candidate that is able to get the support of black voters are incredibly likely to win already, but this is especially true if they run up big margins in the south.

The 2016 and 2020 DEM primary weren't too different from one another in the end, just with Biden looking weaker than Clinton versus Sanders before reaching South Carolina. But as soon as the primary hit South Carolina, and especially during Super Tuesday thereafter, with includes many southern states, Clinton and Biden ran away with the race from winning by considerable margins in the south thanks to their black voter support.

The 2024 GOP Primary is in an interesting place. I don't think Trump will run, so expect many candidates to run, but if Trump does run, it changes the entire race and probably ends up looking similar to the 2016 DEM Primary with the base splitting off by supporting Trump and "not Trump." But unlike 2016 GOP Primary, where that eventually ended up happening too but too late, the "not Trump" half won't be caught off guard and will be able to unite behind a single candidate early on versus multiple ones a dozen states later.

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:58 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
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Doubt Biden would have defeated Clinton in 2016 since Clinton likely would have edged him out with the black voter (and minorities in general) support as Obama would have stayed out of it. If anything, it might have given Sanders more of an opportunity to have won it since Clinton and Biden would have been splitting some votes in the southern states. It almost certainly would have been a contested convention that year if Biden had ran since neither Clinton or Biden would have won by big enough margins in the south on Super Tuesday.

For Democrats, their primary is decided by the south. The candidate that is able to get the support of black voters are incredibly likely to win already, but this is especially true if they run up big margins in the south.


Both Hillary and Biden won the primary due to black voters, not convinced Hillary has an edge over Biden there. While it's debatable whether 2020 Trump or 2016 was easier to beat, Biden beat Bernie more easily than Hillary did. Biden in 2016 would've also been seen as "Obama 3rd term" similar to George HW Bush in 1988 and -4 years would've softened his biggest weakness in old age. It's hard for me to see him losing to Trump in 2016 general election like Hillary did.

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:28 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
I have no doubt Biden would have beaten Trump in 2016. It likely would have been a convincing landslide, honestly.

Hillary was a weak general election candidate, but she was a very strong primary candidate due to how the DEM primary is structured. Versus basically any Democrats, she's very strong in the south, strong in the higher populated states like CA and NY, and able to contend in the northeast and many other parts of the country. She nearly defeated Obama in 2008 and only lost because he picked off some of the southern states. (Yes, she had less baggage and no email nonsense then, but very impressive nonetheless given the movement around Obama).

In general, it's very difficult for a more progressive, non-traditional/establishment candidate to win the DEM primary since they're mostly just strong up in the northeast, along the west coast, and in a couple other states. (Although this is beginning to shift as the party becomes more progressive.) And this is sort of a flawed process for DEMs since the winning candidate is usually the one that wins in the south, but those states are very difficult to win, most being out of play, in the general (NC, FL, and now GA possibly, really being the only toss-ups).

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Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:42 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
The real statistics that should scare the shot out Republicans is that the vast majority of states are shifting to the Democrats including Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia as their urban and suburban area continue to expand and grow. I think Florida is the only significant state that is shifting the GOP’s way as the Cuban-American subculture continues to grow which is heavily shifting towards the GOP

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Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:07 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
The real statistics that should scare the shot out Republicans is that the vast majority of states are shifting to the Democrats including Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia as their urban and suburban area continue to expand and grow. I think Florida is the only significant state that is shifting the GOP’s way as the Cuban-American subculture continues to grow which is heavily shifting towards the GOP


That's why they need rust belt which is arguably shifting Republican in the bigger picture. Ohio is an example of the Republicans successfully shifting a state to counteract some of the southern ones.

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Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:42 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
The real statistics that should scare the shot out Republicans is that the vast majority of states are shifting to the Democrats including Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia as their urban and suburban area continue to expand and grow. I think Florida is the only significant state that is shifting the GOP’s way as the Cuban-American subculture continues to grow which is heavily shifting towards the GOP


Those three states definitely are in danger, which is why I think the Republicans need a new strategy besides running Trump again who struggles to appeal to suburban voters, even if he gets large rural turnout. Though I think the bleeding in Texas at least is slowing and could start reversing.

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Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:18 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
The real statistics that should scare the shot out Republicans is that the vast majority of states are shifting to the Democrats including Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia as their urban and suburban area continue to expand and grow. I think Florida is the only significant state that is shifting the GOP’s way as the Cuban-American subculture continues to grow which is heavily shifting towards the GOP
Thus why they are pushing through all these voter suppression laws.

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Mon Jun 07, 2021 2:42 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
zwackerm wrote:
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
The real statistics that should scare the shot out Republicans is that the vast majority of states are shifting to the Democrats including Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia as their urban and suburban area continue to expand and grow. I think Florida is the only significant state that is shifting the GOP’s way as the Cuban-American subculture continues to grow which is heavily shifting towards the GOP


Those three states definitely are in danger, which is why I think the Republicans need a new strategy besides running Trump again who struggles to appeal to suburban voters, even if he gets large rural turnout. Though I think the bleeding in Texas at least is slowing and could start reversing.


They can make up for Georgia, North-Carolina and Arizona with the rust belt, but the moment they lose Texas, which will probably happen by the mid 2030s at the latest, it's over for them anyway.


Mon Jun 07, 2021 2:51 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Cynosure wrote:
They can make up for Georgia, North-Carolina and Arizona with the rust belt, but the moment they lose Texas, which will probably happen by the mid 2030s at the latest, it's over for them anyway.


I think there would always be a competitive 2nd party if the elections continue to exist and are fair, it's just it would be an overall left wing country where the future Republicans would be as far left as the Biden and Pelosi types are now and the Democrats would be the AOC level socialists. That's if the US continues to go left, but the question is, is it guaranteed to? Left wing activists control nearly every institution in the US (media, big tech, education, etc.), however the awareness that they do is much greater than it was ten years ago which could make it harder for them to keep it.

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Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:50 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Jack Sparrow wrote:
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Once more for this discussion. :P


Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:58 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Texas will get redder in 2024 since Hispanics in the state are only getting redder, as are cities like Fort Worth and Arlington.

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Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:14 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Wishful thinking imo. Bush 43 won Texas by 22 points in 2004 and got 44% of the Hispanic vote in the country. Trump won Texas by 5.5 points in 2020 and didn't even get 44% of the Hispanic vote there (41%). In one generation people will not remember a red Texas just like millennials don't remember a red California despite it voting for Nixon, Reagan twice and Bush 41.


Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:20 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Prediction. The GOP candidate wins Nevada, New Mexico, Maine and Minnesota in 2024

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Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:54 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
If Harris is the Dem candidate, the GOP could sweep. She's awful.


Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:22 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
I think she’d only become the candidate if she runs unopposed

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Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:00 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Who is Democrats nominee if Biden doesn't run and Harris flops in the primary?

Abrams becomes Georgia governor and then aims for 2028 or 2032 presidential run imo

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Fri Jun 11, 2021 11:47 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Shack wrote:
Who is Democrats nominee if Biden doesn't run and Harris flops in the primary?

Abrams becomes Georgia governor and then aims for 2028 or 2032 presidential run imo


Warren or Buttigieg, perhaps?


Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:51 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Warren lol. She is even less likable than Harris

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Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:05 pm
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Cynosure wrote:
Shack wrote:
Who is Democrats nominee if Biden doesn't run and Harris flops in the primary?

Abrams becomes Georgia governor and then aims for 2028 or 2032 presidential run imo


Warren or Buttigieg, perhaps?


The key for Hillary and Biden winning the Democrat primary was black voters so I think people like Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren could be at a disadvantage.

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Sat Jun 12, 2021 1:57 am
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Post Re: GOP 2024
Shack wrote:
Cynosure wrote:
Shack wrote:
Who is Democrats nominee if Biden doesn't run and Harris flops in the primary?

Abrams becomes Georgia governor and then aims for 2028 or 2032 presidential run imo


Warren or Buttigieg, perhaps?


The key for Hillary and Biden winning the Democrat primary was black voters so I think people like Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren could be at a disadvantage.


That's true, but with the way demographics are going it probably won't be long now until hispanic voters outnumber black voters for the first time in a democratic primary. Not to mention young black voters are more progressive than their elders too.


Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:10 am
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