You probably haven't seen it on CNN, but here's some info on ill-fated ukrainian offensive:

Over 100 strikes by Vihr' ATGM from helicopters in June (more than in the previous 15 months, 220 in total), 4 minutes clip https://tempclip.com/en/Kyavw1aljYFPX6o/watch

Over 350 lancet strikes collected by the guys from Lostarmour for your convenience, 55 in June and 61 in May
https://lostarmour.info/tags/lancet

Over 100 hits of M777 easy-burning howitzers
https://lostarmour.info/tags/m777

28 destroyed Bradleys in less than a month so far. Likely the worst performing tech based on rate of disposal.
https://lostarmour.info/stats/bradley

Fpv drones - 91 strikes in June, 60 in May
https://lostarmour.info/tags/fpv

I don't know what's on CNN because I don't watch CNN, but I've heard that the Ukrainian offensive isn't doing very well. The Russians have really had so long to dig themselves in that Ukraine isn't making any headway yet.

I have also heard the Ukrainian offensive is a disappointment after how much of an opportunity they had during the short lived Wagner rebellion

It only lasted a day, lol. I'll let them off for not being able to do much in such a short space of time.

You won't hear it on CBS, but Russian economy is doing quite well thanks to sanctions (I hope there's more as we've finally given up on the 90s model of selling resources cheap, investing profits in US and EU at 2%, borrowing from them at 5% and calling it "integration into global economy").

Some info on consumer goods market.
Top FMCGs of $1-2 billion sales – Pepsico, Nestle, Mars, Danone, Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Unilever, P&G, Carlsberg, ABInbevEfes – never stopped production, some rebranded global brands as local, changed logistics, got local sourcing, stopped imports, etc.

Companies that stayed:
• USA – Kraft-Heinz, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson&Johnson, Colgate-Palmolive, Hill's, SC Johnson, Purina
• Germany – Beiersdorf, Hochland, Ehrmann, Stork, DMK, Ritter Sport, Lorenz, Knauf
• Italy – Ferrero, Perfetti Van Melle, Barilla, De Cecco
• France – Lactalis-Parmalat, Bonduelle, Savencia, Groupe SEB, L’Oreal, LVMH Cosmetics
• Netherlands – Jacobs, Nutricia
• Austria – Red Bull, Kotanyi, Julius Meinl
• UK – Reckitt Benckiser
• Sweden – Lantmannen
• Mexico – Mission Foods
• South Korea – Lotte, Orion
• Singapore – McCoffee
• Pharma: Bayer, Novartis-Sandoz, GSK, Teva, Sanofi, Stada, Abbott, Alcon, AstraZeneca
• Tobacco: Philip Morris (#1), JTI (#2). BAT (distant #3) says it’s gonna leave by the end of 2023, but we’ll see.

Left: Imperial Tobacco, Wella, Coty, Nespresso, Hasbro, Mattel, Lego, Duracell, Lindt, Bunge, Essity, Kellogg’s, Finnish companies Valio, Fazer, Paulig. All their local production facilities (if any) were sold (at 50% and less) and continue to operate. Henkel sold business (11 plants) to local investors for $600 m, rebranded most of the brands (now written in Cyrillic). Adidas wants to come back later this year.
Sold to management: Arla, Tchibo, Leroy Merlin. Selling: Heineken.
Carlsberg and Danone had both billions of euros invested in Russia (acquired local beer and dairy leaders Baltika and Unimilk years ago), tried to sell and leave, but were essentially nationalized last week by Putin's presidential order. Before that only Finnish and German energy companies Fortum and Unipro have been nationalized. Just like with Russian assets "temporarily frozen" abroad (i.e. stolen), this can be a game for two.

Great news for Russia! I'm very pleased for them how they've insulated themselves against sanctions. So there's no need for Russia to retaliate. They should be thanking the west instead. I wonder why Putin keeps complaining about the sanctions in his regular public addresses. Hmm. Yeah. I wonder. It must be because the Russian economy is doing so well, lol ... says Mr. Russia.

Russia releases data via its Ministry of Finance. Only a fool gets all their information from CNN. Who even does that anymore? Anyway, The MOF of the Russian Federation releases data, and it clearly shows the economy is in the shitter. Sorry Mr. Russia, there's no way to claim that it's all foreign propaganda when your own Ministry of fucking Finance announces that until June 2023 the Russian economy is at a 15 trillion ruble deficit.

I remember you bragging about Russia's budget deficit early in the year and how you "expertly" multiplied it by the number of remaining months to point out that Russia is going down the drain. You didn't know they moved the costs to Q1 to provide early financing.
Russia's budget deficit in January-June is 2.6 trillion, same as it was in Jan-Feb. Russia's income YTD is -12% to 12.4 trillion, expenditure is +19% to 15 trillion. Non oil and gas income is 7 trillion and 18% up (used to be +9% in Jan-May, +5% Jan-Apr), oil and gas income is 3.4 trillion and 47% down (used to be -50% in Jan-May, -52% Jan-Apr). Value added tax income is +17% (one of the main taxes in Russia that's included in all the goods and services sold), profit tax income is -4% (used to be -15% in Jan-May). Not to mention one of the lowest inflation (3.2%) and unemployment (3.2%) rates in the world, THE lowest food inflation in Europe (like 0), the lowest external debt in the last 15 years, and one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios in the world, manufacturing is +6% in Apr, +8% in May, +13% in June, GDP -0.7% in Mar, +3.4% in Apr, +5.4% in May, projected to grow +1.5-2.5% in 2023 after -2.1% in 2022, but gonna be more like +3%. Now tell us about US budget deficit, national debt, % of debt to GDP, inflation, unemployment...or you senile president who doesn't know he's alive and his corrupt junkie pedo son.

As I said, good for Russia that they're doing so well.

I'd better not hear any government official complaining about sanctions again then. They should be asking for more! And the west will oblige.

The sanctions will be gone in about 17 months.

Flava, you are really that confident in Trump?

Probably more confident in fewer Democrats coming out for Biden round 2 than Republicans coming out for Trump round 3.

I'd say Democrats have certainly become more tribal in recent years, but they're still a little more unreliable (staying home like with Clinton, favoring third party candidates more often than Republicans, etc.) to vote for their candidate than Republicans are who tend to fall in line more often behind their candidate almost no matter what.

Just look at the batch of GOP candidates last year. Most lost, but the fact candidates like Hershel Walker and Kari Lake were so competitive is pretty ridiculous.

I hope I'm wrong but yes. I think Trump will sweep the primaries. And then in the gen election all he really needs to do is flip Arizona and Georgia back to red (which shouldn't be too difficult) and then win one of the Virginia, Pennsylvania and Michigan trio.

And beyond, it really does feel like there is a cultural shift going on. The woke movement went a little too far and now the mantra of MAGA is sounding sweet to previously neutral ears.

Ukraine is Biden's one big triumph, but it also didn't really help anyone back home. Obama had healthcare which directly improved the lives of millions of Americans.

I think the Republicans will step up their game in vote by mail. In the midterms one of the few places that did well for Republicans was southern California where apparently they actually know how to work the system. The Republicans in last two elections were basically a modern day NBA team that still takes a lot of midrange shots instead of 3s.

Otoh I can see a scenario where the playing the J6 card over and over again will be effective enough on middle voters to make Trump hard to elect.

Re: Jan 6, obviously I'm not an independent, I'm gonna vote liberal 90% of the time (though I did vote for Gov. Dewine last year cause of the mostly sensible way he handled covid.) However, if I was a neutral voter thinking about January 6 ... wouldn't I rather have Trump as President than Trump as Supreme Leader? Cause if he loses that shit is 100% going to happen again.

I think you are ignoring how the Trump brand failed horribly in 2022 in general elections. The success of Barbie has shown that the general public is still okay with left leaning ideologies, and the conservative Supreme Court is still supremely unpopular. The key will be how well the Democrats can stay united again. Democrats are well known for the lack of cohesion. A third party candidate here can really fuck then up. The hidden narrative not unfurled yet is a legit third party conservative. I can totally see a this year being the year a conservative third party breaks out.

So about Russian alcohol market
• International companies (Diageo, Moet Hennessy, Brown Forman, Remy Cointreau, etc) left. Usual product stock is 2-3 months at retailer and 3+ months at distributor, so most products were out of stock by last Fall, then it took a few months until parallel import started working. Everything is now imported by Russian distributors and retailers. Pernod Ricard was the last big one to leave Russia officially a few months ago.
• Hundreds of new brands. Many retailers launched their own private labels. Most companies import distillates from Scotland, France, Dominicana, Armenia, Georgia, blend and bottle locally.
• Vodka is all local. One of the biggest producers Global Spirits (around $1 B turnover and 2 brands out of Top-5, “Khortytsa” and “Morosha”), is owned by Ukrainian oligarch. Key brand “Khortytsa” is named after biggest island on Dniepr river in Ukraine (and even written in Ukrainian), reached #1 a few years ago (long after 2014 – so much for Russians hating Ukrainians), I guess it’s about #2-3 now. The company is also a key player in cognac with Shustoff brand (originally from Odessa plant in Ukraine). A few weeks ago Russian government got involved – top management is arrested, production license is annulled, criminal case for financing of terrorism is initiated, owner is put into the list of terrorists.
• Beer is 2/3 internationals ABInbevEfes, Carlsberg and Heineken that produce locally. Baltika company owned by Carlsberg is “temporarily” nationalized.
• Major, double digit, growth in already huge local wines and cognacs (Crimea, Dagestan, South of Russia, also Armenia, Georgia). This week’s new tariff on wines from hostile countries will further fuel growth in Russian wines, and help wines from South America and Africa.
• Simply huge growth of local whiskey, rum, gin, brandy – double, triple growth in volumes last year and this year again, as prices dropped, these categories have become more affordable. Since whiskey production is challenging, quality is average, but fine, good enough to mix with Russian Coke, hahaha. Brandy is mostly cheap shit. Rums and gins are about the same in quality as foreign ones – made from the same imported distillate and juniper.
• Martini-Bacardi stayed, most of its regular assortment is available. It owns Russia's #1 whiskey brand William Lawson’s, produced at local contractor for many years, will rebrand Bacardi rum (used to be #1 in the market) as Oakheart and produce it locally as well. Campari stayed. Beam Suntory is sold to local management.
• Biggest Russian alcohol company Beluga Group reached $1.5 billion sales last year, which is +30%, and doubled profit. All key alcohol producers, importers, distributors, retailers are growing double digits, some 30-50% and more. Biggest Russian retailer X5 Group (22K stores) has also become the biggest alcohol importer.

Are you gonna apologize for your budget deficit fuckup so we can move on?
Key message here in Russia is that sanctions will stay forever, and relationships with the West will never recover. Everyone's working to overcome these sanctions via new import-export and insurance schemes, payment means, buying up hundreds of tankers, building railroads, bridges and terminals across the border, expanding sea and river port capacities, restructuring logistics, registering business outside in UAE, CIS, Serbia. The biggest issue is car and airplane production, but it's manageable within 3-5 years.

True but alot can change in a year and even more in two years. There weren't any country music songs in the top ten last November for instance and now there are 3. Perhaps I'm overreading that, but its the type of cultural shift I'm talking about.

Plus, I think Gen Z showing up en masse in 2022 could have just been for a single issue - student loans. And how did that work out? With democrats throwing their hands up and saying "hey we tried but those dastardly Republicans wouldn't let it happen. Oh well, just keep voting for us." Meanwhile conservatives are seeing direct results of their Trump pick even while he is (temporarily) out of office. Abortion gone. Gay rights obliterated (on a ruling based off a fake incident no less.) Racism rebranded as anti-woke and becoming publicly acceptable again. Who is gonna be more hyped to vote in the 2024 election?

Again hope I'm wrong. I just see it as an unstoppable train at this point. My potentially irrational fears surrounding the situation is that he says something like "because I was cheated in 2020, I get to also run in 2028" and then Natalie Portman comes in like "So this is how liberty dies- With thunderous applause."

lol, I've already moved on, dude. You can keep spouting Russian propaganda if you want, though.

July update:
Over 500 lancet strikes so far. 136 in July, more than in 2 previous months (there was 142 strikes in Jul-Feb to give you an idea). They've build a whole production plant in the former shopping mall, where thousands of them are being produced right now.
https://lostarmour.info/tags/lancet

266 ATGM strikes from helicopters. 45 in July and I'm guessing this hasn't been updated
https://airtable.com/shrF70VkLCRqUzsuo/ ... RGPpsw551J

125 hits of M777. 18 in July https://lostarmour.info/tags/m777

43 Bradleys lost in 2 months.
https://lostarmour.info/stats/bradley

Over 300 FPV-drone strikes so far. 118 in July. Clearly not enough.
https://lostarmour.info/tags/fpv

Thanks to recent attacks on Moscow City (right where the most liberal pro-Western soyboys sit), even the most stupid motherfucker will start donating money for the front.

You're welcome to disprove my evil totalitarian Russian propaganda with your good democratic Western one. I'm sure punchcard Biden mostly tells you the truth.

Insulting Joe Biden isn't a great way to get back at the west. Not even liberals like him very much. If you want to get back at Algren you can saying something like "the Rambo sequels completely ruined the point of the first movie."

Insulting him is like beating a dead cow, but I'm not good at US politicians - they're old, ugly and sad (like in USSR in the 80s). Or stupid like Kamala. But Trump is funny and has a pretty wife.

I believe if Trump wins the White House there will be a new Axis of Power where the USA switches sides and begins to align itself with countries that are against the Liberal West which will lead it to a partnership with Russia over Western Europe who Trump despises their current leaders.

A few words about Russian movie market.
• All the majors have cut ties with Russia. 2022 box-office was down 42% to 24 billion RUR (but going down since 2019’ 56 B RUR). Last year cinemas struggled due to lack of content, they say about 10% of them were shut down.
• 2022 entire total was passed in 6 months, so far 2023 is +64% with clear untapped demand for bigger hits. It surely is outperforming pre-war 2021’ 41 B RUR.
• Noticeably not enough domestic blockbusters, but in 1-2 years there will be plenty. Family films, animation and comedies currently dominate. Local phenomenon Cheburashka sold 22.3 m tickets Vs Avatar’s record 13.5 m in 2009, more than doubled grosses of the previous Russian record holders. Vyzov (the one filmed in space) has 6.3 m tickets so far and an enormous staying power.
• Since early 2023 they are showing US blockbusters unofficially (but legally, just not paying US companies anymore), masked as Russian shorts, which is <10% of the box-office. Avatar 2 grossed over $20 m, but they say it’s over $50 m with illegal showings.
• There’s still big official releases John Wick 4 (2.4 m tickets), Operation Fortune (1.8 m), Amazing Maurice (1.2 m), The Covenant, Jeanne du Barry, Hypnotic, Plane being the biggest grossers, and a lot of second-rate genre films such as The Black Demon. Last pre-war official US blockbusters were Uncharted (5.4 m tickets) and Death on a Nile (2 m).
• That being said, the market relies on new domestic productions and US/EU films. No re-releases of the previous Russian hits, very few Asian imports (2 Jackie Chan films and some animation).
• Online cinemas rose 5-17% to 63-68 billion RUR in 2022, depending on the source. They would lose most of western hits, but still expect 10-20% growth this year. Local online content (series mostly) is inexpensive and is on the rise. Netflix was 8% of the market, Ukrainian Megogo was 6%, so nobody cared about them leaving. Major TV channels are focused on local content for many years anyway.
• Current trend is that intellectual rights on all Western property will be ignored by the state either officially by law or unofficially. Local torrent Kinozal was unblocked after 8 years (biggest ones are still blocked).
• Biggest local distributor developed its own IMAX format.