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 International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.) 
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Corpse wrote:
Bye-bye, Boris Johnson.

Scandal after scandal, sexual misconduct allegations, cabinet resignations (especially the last couple days), etc. eventually became too much. Should have resigned sooner, but at *least* he did it now, so there is a tiny bit of credit for him. At least his party had the decency to say when enough is enough, unlike in some countries when they have a leader(s) with similar (and more) damaging problems and turn a blind-eye and continue their support because "loyalty."


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Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:13 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Hey, he resigned. Doesn't make him a good guy, but at least he resigned and many in his party distanced themselves from him and aren't supporting another run for office (only 30% of Dems support him).

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Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:15 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Algren wrote:
Everything I'm seeing recently and for the last few months points toward a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year, and most likely this summer before Dictator Xi's third term approval. It is worrying stuff but all the signs indicate this will happen. Firstly, the most obvious sign is the recent leak of a War Mobilization Meeting between the PLA (People's Liberation Army) and Guangdong Province government officials; the province that is very close to the Taiwan Strait. This meeting talks of transitioning the area from what they refer to as "Normal State" to a "Wartime State". It also talks of short turnarounds such as one month and 45 days for certain immediate tasks. Then it goes into detail about recruitment, civilian conscription, etc. Another point to consider is the pandemic. Launching an offensive in winter would bring an additional problem that will hurt the potential of a CCP victory, so I get the impression China will try to get it done before the winter, and before the in-party vote on Xi's third term, so that he looks like a god to the people for bringing about the "great rejuvenation of the motherland" (seriously, this is how they talk!). Then there's the small matter of the pandemic and how that's been used as a stress test for war. The people haven't revolted. Propaganda and censorship has largely worked. So there's nothing stopping the CCP from moving forward in that regard. To top it off, I've been hearing about passports and visas being cancelled/not issued for a while now under the guise of pandemic control, but I fear this is another test and implementation of war policies. They're just not letting people leave. You don't want your people fleeing the country when you have instigated a war, it looks bad on the government. So how do they counter that? Easy. Don't let people leave. Let people get used to the idea of staying in China. And if they can't leave, they might as well enlist and help with the invasion effort.

I know it seems alarmist. I can hardly believe it myself, but it's just that all the signs I'm seeing and hearing about indicate that it's very close. I can't see why they would wait until, for example, next year. I believe they also want strike while the US and other countries are preoccupied with Ukraine. China was also over the moon that Russia launched an invasion. Russia acted like a teenager with OCD there, falling right into China's trap. Xi knew what he was doing. Putin believed his hype. I am sure Xi praised Putin so much that he thought he was invincible. That backfired, and now Xi has all the data. He now knows what will likely happen if he launches an attack on Taiwan with regards to sanctions and a military response from the west (slightly different situation, but still, good for Xi to get an idea of likely scenarios to barricade his country against). This is another area where the pandemic has been perfect for China to stress test disrupted supply chains (a tactic the west will likely use in the event of an invasion). China has been hoarding supplies in recent years and cutting off reliance on other countries to limit any effect of sanctions.

I'm racking my brains but not a single thing comes to mind that makes me question that it will happen, and particularly this year. It's also an operation that will probably not take very long to accomplish, just as Putin thought Ukraine would be, but with China I get the impression their modern militarization will prove to be far superior to that of Russia's old Soviet-era weaponry and mindset. So if Xi were to launch an attack this year, he probably believes he could get it done in a few months right in time for his third term and before the next wave of Covid. And though there's always unforeseen circumstances and hurdles, with the population on his side through brainwashing, even if it lasts longer, there's one thing China has in abundance that means it can fight a war of attrition better than anyone, and that's manpower. They can throw bodies at a problem and it will fix itself eventually.

So, yeah, I'm not sure what else to say. I'm hearing and seeing things on a daily basis that supports my theory. Fingers crossed I'm wrong.


You know more than me, but my impression is these things could dissuade them

- Invading Taiwan would legitimately be a bitch as a little island with one way in that's been waiting for them for decades. Basically have constructed a giant death trap gauntlet in the water route alone and then once they get on the island it's also hell. The only thing China can do is be willing to sacrifice enough of its own people to get through Taiwan's death machine, making it a potential pyrrhic victory even if they win, and maybe that's not even guaranteed.

- Could the microchip incentive be overrated based on the possibility that Taiwan could just destroy all their factories before China gets there?

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Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:23 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Corpse wrote:
Hey, he resigned. Doesn't make him a good guy, but at least he resigned and many in his party distanced themselves from him and aren't supporting another run for office (only 30% of Dems support him).


After months and months of allegations. His conduct was known way longer than that.


Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:42 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Algren wrote:
Everything I'm seeing recently and for the last few months points toward a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year, and most likely this summer before Dictator Xi's third term approval. It is worrying stuff but all the signs indicate this will happen. Firstly, the most obvious sign is the recent leak of a War Mobilization Meeting between the PLA (People's Liberation Army) and Guangdong Province government officials; the province that is very close to the Taiwan Strait. This meeting talks of transitioning the area from what they refer to as "Normal State" to a "Wartime State". It also talks of short turnarounds such as one month and 45 days for certain immediate tasks. Then it goes into detail about recruitment, civilian conscription, etc. Another point to consider is the pandemic. Launching an offensive in winter would bring an additional problem that will hurt the potential of a CCP victory, so I get the impression China will try to get it done before the winter, and before the in-party vote on Xi's third term, so that he looks like a god to the people for bringing about the "great rejuvenation of the motherland" (seriously, this is how they talk!). Then there's the small matter of the pandemic and how that's been used as a stress test for war. The people haven't revolted. Propaganda and censorship has largely worked. So there's nothing stopping the CCP from moving forward in that regard. To top it off, I've been hearing about passports and visas being cancelled/not issued for a while now under the guise of pandemic control, but I fear this is another test and implementation of war policies. They're just not letting people leave. You don't want your people fleeing the country when you have instigated a war, it looks bad on the government. So how do they counter that? Easy. Don't let people leave. Let people get used to the idea of staying in China. And if they can't leave, they might as well enlist and help with the invasion effort.

I know it seems alarmist. I can hardly believe it myself, but it's just that all the signs I'm seeing and hearing about indicate that it's very close. I can't see why they would wait until, for example, next year. I believe they also want strike while the US and other countries are preoccupied with Ukraine. China was also over the moon that Russia launched an invasion. Russia acted like a teenager with OCD there, falling right into China's trap. Xi knew what he was doing. Putin believed his hype. I am sure Xi praised Putin so much that he thought he was invincible. That backfired, and now Xi has all the data. He now knows what will likely happen if he launches an attack on Taiwan with regards to sanctions and a military response from the west (slightly different situation, but still, good for Xi to get an idea of likely scenarios to barricade his country against). This is another area where the pandemic has been perfect for China to stress test disrupted supply chains (a tactic the west will likely use in the event of an invasion). China has been hoarding supplies in recent years and cutting off reliance on other countries to limit any effect of sanctions.

I'm racking my brains but not a single thing comes to mind that makes me question that it will happen, and particularly this year. It's also an operation that will probably not take very long to accomplish, just as Putin thought Ukraine would be, but with China I get the impression their modern militarization will prove to be far superior to that of Russia's old Soviet-era weaponry and mindset. So if Xi were to launch an attack this year, he probably believes he could get it done in a few months right in time for his third term and before the next wave of Covid. And though there's always unforeseen circumstances and hurdles, with the population on his side through brainwashing, even if it lasts longer, there's one thing China has in abundance that means it can fight a war of attrition better than anyone, and that's manpower. They can throw bodies at a problem and it will fix itself eventually.

So, yeah, I'm not sure what else to say. I'm hearing and seeing things on a daily basis that supports my theory. Fingers crossed I'm wrong.


JUST GREAT :wacko:

WW3 is on the menu when that happens.

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Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:30 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Shack wrote:
Invading Taiwan would legitimately be a bitch as a little island with one way in that's been waiting for them for decades. Basically have constructed a giant death trap gauntlet in the water route alone and then once they get on the island it's also hell. The only thing China can do is be willing to sacrifice enough of its own people to get through Taiwan's death machine, making it a potential pyrrhic victory even if they win, and maybe that's not even guaranteed.


That's the thing the CCP is more than happy to do. Life has no value in China, particularly in the pursuit of political ambitions. The PLA (and by proxy, the people) are the Party's cannon fodder.

Shack wrote:
Could the microchip incentive be overrated based on the possibility that Taiwan could just destroy all their factories before China gets there?


Possibly. I'm also no expert. TSMC are moving some production to the U.S. (though not the super-super micro important genius next-level shit) so I'm sure that will somewhat incentivize China to invade sooner. But I don't think the invasion is primarily about the microchips, although that will certainly be a beneficial consequence of a successful invasion. It's more about China's imperialist ambition to rule and/or control Asia. It's more historical than for economic gain. It's about land and righting a wrong, because if the CCP takes over the island they will erode all of Taiwan's prosperity, firstly, by the war itself, but also by their cultural, political, and societal revolution. Taiwan will lose its creativity, becoming just another Chinese province that steals technology from the rest of the world.

The CCP is the best at playing the victim despite being the aggressor. So the narrative to the people is that Taiwan was stolen by these terrible nationalists (who just happened to build a great, productive country), and the CCP are the real China (despite being revolutionaries and only existing for 73 years). Taiwan has also never, ever belonged to the CCP. It has not been ruled even for one day by the CCP, so any military action would be a complete invasion of a sovereign country.

The invasion is also about Dictator Xi. He has to cement himself into Chinese lore. He wants to be bigger than Mao, and the only way he's really going to do that is by taking Taiwan, and "returning it to the Chinese people" (yuck!) because no matter how much he spouts about poverty alleviation, it ain't getting him up to the deity levels of Chairman Mao.

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Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:27 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Ultimately China is just so jealous of the British Empire or American dominance post-WW2. It so badly wants its own era of dominance because it firmly believes it is the oldest civilization in the world and thus power over the world is rightly theirs.

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Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:59 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
The assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was a Chinese hit job because of his stance on Taiwan.. :noway: or not

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Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:33 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
No, or I guess incredibly unlikely. The "gun" (two metal pipes, or barrels, taped together over a flat surface) and ammunition were all homemade, and the shooter was a member of the SDF from back in 2005. NDTV reports he admitted to holding a grudge against Abe for being a member of an unnamed (for now) organization (presumably Nippon Kaigi, Japan's largest far-right nationalist group of around 40,000 members).

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“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
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Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:55 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
That's also not China's style. Believe it or not, they are incredibly cowardly. They're not North Korea. And Abe was not in office anymore, although I'm sure he still had political influence (I hear he was out campaigning when he was shot) I doubt China would care about him enough to order a hit. So no, this was not a Chinese hit job.

Not to mention that China is incredibly incompetent. Everything they put out there about the might of their army or navy and the advanced technology etc. etc. etc., it's all bluster because they are inferior to the U.S. and other nations. China is like the guy at the bar telling you how tough he is while the real tough guy is quiet because he doesn't need to tell people, you just know.

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Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:43 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
RIP Shinzo

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Fri Jul 08, 2022 1:13 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Algren wrote:
That's also not China's style. Believe it or not, they are incredibly cowardly. They're not North Korea. And Abe was not in office anymore, although I'm sure he still had political influence (I hear he was out campaigning when he was shot) I doubt China would care about him enough to order a hit. So no, this was not a Chinese hit job.

Not to mention that China is incredibly incompetent. Everything they put out there about the might of their army or navy and the advanced technology etc. etc. etc., it's all bluster because they are inferior to the U.S. and other nations. China is like the guy at the bar telling you how tough he is while the real tough guy is quiet because he doesn't need to tell people, you just know.


China also seems wise enough to know the insane cost that any type of large scale conflict would bring. China no doubt learning from Russian missteps.

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Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:16 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Excel wrote:
China also seems wise enough to know the insane cost that any type of large scale conflict would bring. China no doubt learning from Russian missteps.


My impression is the war is going better for Russia than the people who think left wing activists are reliable sources of info would realize, and they seem to have bounced back economically from any initial damage such as the ruble now doing well

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Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:40 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
I dunno, the fact that Russia couldn’t take over a country with that small of an army swiftly is a pretty damn big failure if you ask me

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Sat Jul 09, 2022 7:21 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
There is no definitive answer or result. The invasion has had its ups and downs, but Russia is generally achieving its aims, albeit taking longer than anticipated. Nobody truly knows if they originally intended to overthrow the government and occupy the whole of Ukraine or just the Donbas area. If the former, then sure, they failed. But if the latter, then they made strategic losses in order to achieve their goals - the Donbas is almost all under Russian occupation. What I don't understand, and what I find worrying, is their occupation of areas outside of the Donbas, such as Melitopol and Kherson. This would suggest more than just the Donbas is expected by Putin, unless it again occupies Ukrainian forces away from their desired goal of the Donbas.

But it's hard to look at something like casualties or dead soldiers being upwards of 14,000 and say that's a Russia fail because, much like with China, this means nothing to them. But I would say that Russia has been embarrassed in terms of their reputation for being a global military power, and they've been repelled by a country that has only existed for 31 years.

I believe Russia miscalculated Ukraine's resistance capability, and Putin is most likely surrounded by 'yes men' that don't report the truth. So he makes decisions based on bad intel, such as Russia having stockpiles of capable missiles and ammunition when in reality it's mostly out-of-date Soviet-era munitions that aren't sufficient for modern warfare. Which is why they went back to the basics of shelling/war of attrition/indiscriminate bombing to capture cities.

Russia's standing in the world and the respect (or fear) they once earned is greatly reduced.

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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
The Russian invasion has laid bare just how different perception is in 2022 than in 1915. My suspicion is the vast majority of the world, including the US, view this as much more of a "Putin" thing than a true "Russia" thing. I don't think anyone feels a big chunk of Russian people were aching for war and happily trading young mens lives & economic prosperity for the Donbas geographic region in the Ukraine :funny: . My bet is the US and others would rapidly forgive Russia and rebuild that relationship should a more friendly government form. Mind you, of course...this invasion isn't THAT different really from what the US did with the Iraq invasion, which pretty much everyone now openly admits we never should have done. People seemed to forgive us pretty quick though... :whistle:

Such are the complexities that come with such widespread globalization and prolonged peace (generally). Populations are more aware of governments true intentions and misinformation than ever before, as well as more empathic towards other populations.

China entering into a major military conflict is a true no-win for them, hopefully they understand that.

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Sat Jul 09, 2022 8:52 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Excel wrote:
China entering into a major military conflict is a true no-win for them, hopefully they understand that.


They definitely do understand that, otherwise they'd have already invaded Taiwan. The only reason they haven't is because the gains don't yet outweigh the potential losses. They are quietly becoming as self-sufficient as they can to better prepare themselves for the repercussions of said invasion, but this will take years, and it might not even be possible to the degree they would need to feel confident enough that they could both win and reduce economic disruption.

Anyway, Taiwan has an election in 2024, so that will probably be China's first port of call; to meddle in that and influence the electorate to appoint a CCP-friendly leader. If that plan fails, it's probably time to risk an invasion.

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Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:16 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Algren wrote:
Excel wrote:
China entering into a major military conflict is a true no-win for them, hopefully they understand that.


They definitely do understand that, otherwise they'd have already invaded Taiwan. The only reason they haven't is because the gains don't yet outweigh the potential losses. They are quietly becoming as self-sufficient as they can to better prepare themselves for the repercussions of said invasion, but this will take years, and it might not even be possible to the degree they would need to feel confident enough that they could both win and reduce economic disruption.

Anyway, Taiwan has an election in 2024, so that will probably be China's first port of call; to meddle in that and influence the electorate to appoint a CCP-friendly leader. If that plan fails, it's probably time to risk an invasion.


They’ll wait until America has major disruption domestically like say fall of the government/civil war. Invade Taiwan while the rest of the world is distracted with Americans none sense

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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
I dunno, the fact that Russia couldn’t take over a country with that small of an army swiftly is a pretty damn big failure if you ask me


If their main motivation is to take over the Russia separatist sides that Ukraine was at war with then it's possible things are going to plan. Apparently as of this week they have control of Luhasnk province which is about half the Donbass.

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Sat Jul 09, 2022 1:29 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Shack wrote:
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
I dunno, the fact that Russia couldn’t take over a country with that small of an army swiftly is a pretty damn big failure if you ask me


If their main motivation is to take over the Russia separatist sides that Ukraine was at war with then it's possible things are going to plan. Apparently as of this week they have control of Luhasnk province which is about half the Donbass.


I’m going to refer to Algren and Excel on this. They took the words right out of my mouth.

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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Quote:
The U.S. Navy on Wednesday sailed a destroyer close to China-controlled islands in the South China Sea in what Washington said was a patrol aimed at asserting freedom of navigation through the strategic seaway.

The guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold sailed past the Paracel Islands and continued thereafter with operations in the South China Sea.
The operation “upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea,” the 7th Fleet said in a news release.
Such operations are considered key to the U.S. Navy maintaining its presence in the Indo-Pacific, where China has grown its presence through a massive ship building campaign.
Beijing has also alarmed the U.S., Australia and New Zealand with the signing of a mutual defense agreement with the Solomon Islands, under which it could receive Chinese troops in emergencies and possibly establish a permanent Chinese military presence. In response to the Benfold’s passage, China’s Southern Theater Command tracked the vessel’s movements and ordered it to leave the area, Air Force Col. Tian Junli was quoted as saying on the Defense Ministry’s website.
“Our troops in the military area are on high alert at all times to safeguard national sovereignty, security and peace and stability in the South China Sea,” the ministry said.
China claims ownership over virtually the entire strategic waterway, through which passes around $5 trillion in global trade each year and which holds highly valuable fish stocks and undersea mineral resources. The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan also lay competing claims to the region.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

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Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:41 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
That's nothing new. The U.S. often does freedom of navigation exercises in the Taiwan Strait.

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Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:54 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Algren wrote:
That's nothing new. The U.S. often does freedom of navigation exercises in the Taiwan Strait.


One day it'll piss off China enough to start a war :death:

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Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:19 am
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
I think Algren is right in that Russia failures in Ukraine has deterred China, at least for now

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Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:15 pm
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Post Re: International politics (China, Russia, UK, etc.)
Scary when you see how countries like Sri Lanka committed seppuku by banning synthetic fertilizer for environmental reasons, and other countries like Netherlands and Canada are pushing their own anti fertilizer plan. Agriculture needs to be left alone.

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