Who's going to win?.....
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| Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=68209 |
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| Author: | i.hope [ Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Who do you think will be the POTUS for the next four years? Stewart Alexander (Socialist), Virgil Goode (Constitution), Gary Johnson (Libertarian), Barack Obama (Democratic), Mitt Romney (Republican), Jill Stein (Green), Or someone else |
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| Author: | i.hope [ Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
With Obama slipping in national polls but still leading in many battleground state polls, I think the race is really tightening and momentum is turning in favor of Romney. But I still think the president can win if his campaign manages to get his target demographics to come out and vote. |
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| Author: | erikdean [ Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
i.hope wrote: With Obama slipping in national polls but still leading in many battleground state polls, I think the race is really tightening and momentum is turning in favor of Romney. But I still think the president can win if his campaign manages to get his target demographics to come out and vote. Romney's momentum was two weeks ago. Obama should win this handily. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Who's going to win?.....
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| Author: | Groucho [ Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
My electoral college prediction: Obama - 303 to 235 http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/201 ... annaajenae You can make your own map here: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/201 ... ection-map |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
^we have the same map. Obama could lose the popular vote, and still clear 300 electoral votes. erikdean wrote: i.hope wrote: With Obama slipping in national polls but still leading in many battleground state polls, I think the race is really tightening and momentum is turning in favor of Romney. But I still think the president can win if his campaign manages to get his target demographics to come out and vote. Romney's momentum was two weeks ago. Obama should win this handily. Mitt leads 3 out of every 4 national polls. But, he seems to be gaining in state polls. |
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| Author: | i.hope [ Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
One thing that could prove worrisome for Obama is the level of enthusiasm among his own electorates. Low enthusiasm level could mean low voter turnout, especially with groups whose turnout rates are already low: young people and low-income individuals. And these groups tend to favor Obama. Media attention seems to have picked up on the momentum change. Based on my non-scientific observation of the major broadcast news websites today, headlines dedicated to or favoring the Romney/Ryan campaign outnumber those for the Obama/Biden campaign. Talk about fair-and-balanced news reporting: Heavily Pro-Romney/Ryan: FOX News Slightly Pro-Romney/Ryan: ABC News, NBC News Slightly Pro-Obama/Biden: CBS News, CNN |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Obama basically got an inflated lead after the convention. After the 1st debate, he came back to earth, and the race tightened up, getting back to what it was pre debate. Popular vote wise, it is totally up in the air. But electoral college favors Obama right now, by a good 40-50 votes. |
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| Author: | torrino [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Obama can win without Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (aka, 'penis of the US') if he carries Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Just a thought. That said, the states are samey enough -- like they all fell for Obama in 2008, they can easily all fall for Romney in 2012. |
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| Author: | torrino [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Though, I really wonder what's best 4 years of continued economic distress and the outcome flips next time around. Can Obama accomplish anything these next four years (and by four, we really mean two)? Maybe not. Maybe it's best for the country long-term that Romney fails as president, he appoints his looney tunes justices, avoids climate change policies, and increases the debt. And then the Dems get credit for a turnaround in 2016. Unfortunately, Obama really need to hit it out of the park these next four years. This election is still close despite Mitt Romney being Mitt Romney. I would hate 2016 - 2024 to be the 'Ryan' years... I'm mostly kidding. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
torrino wrote: Though, I really wonder what's best 4 years of continued economic distress and the outcome flips next time around. Can Obama accomplish anything these next four years (and by four, we really mean two)? Maybe not. Maybe it's best for the country long-term that Romney fails as president, he appoints his looney tunes justices, avoids climate change policies, and increases the debt. And then the Dems get credit for a turnaround in 2016. Unfortunately, Obama really need to hit it out of the park these next four years. This election is still close despite Mitt Romney being Mitt Romney. I would hate 2016 - 2024 to be the 'Ryan' years... I'm mostly kidding. There isnt much evidence suggesting the next 4 years under obama would be overly similar to the past 4. |
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| Author: | Caius [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Excel wrote: torrino wrote: There isnt much evidence suggesting the next 4 years under obama would be overly similar to the past 4. Why is that? I assume the next Uwe Boll film will be awful. The Yankees will overspend. Lindsay Lohan will be dead or a whore. The sun will rise and set. I do think the economy will improve but I base that on our historical expirence as a nation and not on Obama (or Romney). The President does not control the economy. These seem like sure bets. I still think Obama will win. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
I refuse to give an answer in this thread for fear of jinx. lol |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 11:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
I'm visiting family in Pensacola FL this wknd and freaking Romney had a rally here yesterday at the Civic Center. It was a full house from the pictures my friend took. She's a Romney fan & I like her 1% less this year. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 11:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Caius wrote: Excel wrote: torrino wrote: There isnt much evidence suggesting the next 4 years under obama would be overly similar to the past 4. Why is that? no need for -massive stimulus bills -massive industry bail outs -dealing with healthcare -no more extending entitlements, rather looking to scale them back I used to think that 9/11 really made it really tough to gauge how W would govern under "normal circumstances", but the economic crisis which hits weeks before the 08 election was even worse. The fact that Obama is inheriting a growing economy, with a growing gdp, and growing employment rate, is reason enough to assume the next 4 years would be quite different than the 1st four. Any student of the great depression will find what Obama has been able to do quite impressive. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Obama 281 Romney 257 |
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| Author: | FILMO [ Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Obama |
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| Author: | resident [ Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Obama, after a $1 Trillion FEMA bailout of The East Coast and parts of NYC. |
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| Author: | FILMO [ Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
How about Sarah Nailin. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
So Bloomberg has endorsed Obama.  And this is on top of the effusive praise from Christie which of course has been making headlines. Also, the final pre-election jobs report: unemployment inched up 0.1% to 7.9% BUT 171,000 jobs were added in October AND 84,000 more jobs were added in August/September than previously thought. All good news for the Obama campaign. |
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| Author: | torrino [ Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Except when Fox News spins it like this... "US Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 7.9 pct, Latino Rate Inches Up to 10 pct" Read more: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2 ... z2B51PSrwg |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
torrino wrote: Obama can win without Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (aka, 'penis of the US') if he carries Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. |
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| Author: | torrino [ Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
New polls suggests CO is close and might be tipping Romney. So... |
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| Author: | Libs [ Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
torrino wrote: New polls suggests CO is close and might be tipping Romney. So... Even if CO does go Romney, I wouldn't call it the most important of the battlegrounds. That would still be Ohio. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Nov 02, 2012 4:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gut Check: Who Will Win the White House? |
Romney. I've been reading about how Obama's lead in the media right now is built on the assumption way more Democrats will vote than Republicans because it was +7% Democrat in 2008. However the history of the last 30 years indicates 08 was an outlier, 2004 and 2010 was even for the turnout and the average the last 30 years is around +3% Democrat. Considering everything is pointing towards the GOP being way closer to 2000/2004/2010 than 2008 in terms of enthusiasm/turnout, I wouldn't trust the polls showing Obama's "lead" which specifically rely on the assumption 6-10% more Democrats are voting. Right now Democrats winning relies on getting an even or higher % of turnout vs GOP in the swing states than 08, but that doesn't make a lot of sense to me with how much stronger GOP is this time, 2010 results, early voting, enthusiasm, independents, likely voter polls, etc. |
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