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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm
Posts: 6665
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 2008 Election Voter Turnout I saw a long line of no less than 500 people waiting to cast their votes when we drove by the polling station this afternoon. With this election being a non-incumbent race and a record number of states allowing in-person early voting, I expect the turnout to be higher than 2004. But can it break 70%? Past Presidential Election Turnout Percentages*: 2004 60.1% 2000 54.2% 1996 51.7% 1992 58.1% 1988 52.8% 1984 55.2% 1980 54.2% *Based on voting-eligible population turnout Source: "US Elections Project" by George Mason University ( http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm)
Last edited by i.hope on Wed Nov 05, 2008 2:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:21 pm |
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kypade
Kypade
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:53 pm
Posts: 7908
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout wow. The highest turnout in the last thirty years is less than 2/3rds?
More than that, for sure.
I think 70% is a good guess.
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:28 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Voted 61-70. Over 70 would be absolutely huge, possible I suppose, but something in the mid/high 60's would be my guess.
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:30 pm |
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Timayd
The 5th B-Sharp
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:48 am
Posts: 1506
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Early voter numbers are hitting over 50% of 2004 total vote in some places. (Predominatly southern heavy African-American states) so really I think it might be unprecedented. I just don't know if our system can handle over 70%.
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:35 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Still not a national holiday. We'll be lucky if we break 2/3 (67%). I would be psyched to see that, but would still be happy with 65%. The upped numbers of registration in the primaries will definitely help.
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:42 pm |
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Jim Halpert
Stanley Cup
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 pm
Posts: 6981
Location: Hockey Town
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout i got 58%
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 10:05 pm |
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Floydboy
ha ha, charade you are
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:05 pm
Posts: 2210
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout It's going to be 66.6% and after Obama wins the religious right is going to say it's a sign of the Apocalypse.
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Floydboy
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 10:08 pm |
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Obi-Wan Kaboozee4
The Awesome
Joined: Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:12 pm
Posts: 238
Location: The Awesome
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout i'm thinking about 65%
_________________ "Cinematic Adventures."- Dane Cook
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 10:20 pm |
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Beeblebrox
All Star Poster
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:40 pm
Posts: 4679
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Floydboy wrote: and after Obama wins the religious right is going to say it's a sign of the Apocalypse. Good. Maybe they'll all go hide in a fucking cave for the next 8 years.
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 10:29 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Obi-Wan Kaboozee4 wrote: i'm thinking about 65% Same here, 70 is just tough. Anything over 65% would be great.
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| Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:03 pm |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm
Posts: 10266
Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Eeek, the US has a terrible voter turnout percentage. I honestly didn't realize it was that low.
Although, admittedly, I can't really judge right now. The turnout for our last Canadian election last month was pretty abysmal, too.
Peace,
Mike
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:36 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout 59% in Canada ^^^ if Obama wins and there is a large turnout, we have lost the moral high ground in Canada.  _________________The Dark Prince 
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:00 am |
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Argos
Z
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 2:20 pm
Posts: 7952
Location: Wherever he went, including here, it was against his better judgment.
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Germany:
Year - %
------------
1949 78,5
1953 86,0
1957 87,8
1961 87,7
1965 86,8
1969 86,7
1972 91,1
1976 90,7
1980 88,6
1983 89,1
1987 84,3
1990 77,8
1994 79,0
1998 82,2
2002 79,1
2005 77,7
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:45 am |
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misutaa
je vois l'avenir
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:33 pm
Posts: 3841
Location: Hollywood/Berkeley, CA
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout I think this year is going to be HUGE. Absentee and early voting has been big. I think it might be pushing 70%
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:48 am |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Well, I think there is some chance of hitting 70%, but up to 67% would be fantastic. I predict around 66%.
And most of it will single-handedly be because of Obama. Not only has he got his own followers riled up and voting in large numbers, he has inspired many others to vote probably solely for the reason of making sure he is NOT elected.
I really think the turnout would be at least around 3% lower if Hillary was the nominee.
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:00 am |
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Beeblebrox
All Star Poster
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:40 pm
Posts: 4679
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout The estimates I've heard from pundits range in the 120-130 million total. I don't know what % that is, but it's probably pretty high. I'm no prognosticator, so I'll go with something a hair below that the lower estimate.
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:04 am |
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snack
Extraordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:18 pm
Posts: 12159
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Yeah...I doubt the system can handle more than 2/3rds. Even if it just means long lines, not enough people get work off to be able to wait in those lines.
(my school gives it to us as a holiday though...instead of a real fall break)
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:16 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout I don't understand why in the States you have to wait in a line like your voting in India.
Imo I do not understand the huge lines.
Open more places!
_________________The Dark Prince
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:54 am |
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Floydboy
ha ha, charade you are
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:05 pm
Posts: 2210
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Potential problems that may occur due to the large voter turnout. Hopefully nothing catastrophic occurs like in 2000. Quote: Two-thirds of voters will mark their choice with a pencil on a paper ballot that is counted by an optical scanning machine, a method considered far more reliable and verifiable than touch screens. But paper ballots bring their own potential problems, voting experts say.
The scanners can break down, leading to delays and confusion for poll workers and voters. And the paper ballots of about a third of all voters will be counted not at the polling place but later at a central county location. That means that if a voter has made an error  not filling in an oval properly, for example, a mistake often made by the kind of novice voters who will be flocking to the polls  it will not be caught until it is too late. As a result, those ballots will be disqualified.
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Floydboy
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:29 am |
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snack
Extraordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:18 pm
Posts: 12159
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Another potential problem (at least in florida):
Polling locations in largely black areas are often given less than adequate numbers of polling machines (democracy at its finest). Large black turnout = disaster.
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:37 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm
Posts: 6665
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout I live in one of the most populated counties in Ohio. Today I went to the poll and waited in the long line for almost two hours to get my paper ballot. I am almost certain that given early voting of this scale in my county, the turnout in the state will beat 2004's 66.8%. I suspect we will see 70% (in Ohio).
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:15 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout I heard it will top 75% in Florida as we had 68% last time.
_________________The Dark Prince
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| Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:49 pm |
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Floydboy
ha ha, charade you are
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:05 pm
Posts: 2210
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout John McCain is getting the ultimate gift a Republican could ask for: rain on election day. The forecast is rain and storm in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and low turnout always helps Republicans as the people most discouraged from standing in the rain for hours are low-income voters. Whether this will be enough to swing those states is another matter though. They could be close. But turnout is crucial to determining who wins.
Hopefully it doesn't rain too much nor does it affect voter turnout too much.
_________________
Floydboy
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| Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:25 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Black turnout is huge, however there are long lines there....
_________________The Dark Prince
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| Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:43 am |
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Floydboy
ha ha, charade you are
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:05 pm
Posts: 2210
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Re: [Guess] 2008 Election Voter Turnout Some of my work acquaintances that work in VA e-mailed me this morning to tell me that there longer lines than they had ever seen in polling stations. One has voted at the same time and at the same place since '76. He has always walked in at 6am and walked out at 6:05 without any problems. Today he said there were already 300 people in front of him that were in the line waiting to vote. It still only took him ~30 minutes to make it through. Another said he made it to a polling station that was in a relatively small town in VA and he got there at 5:45am and had 100 people in front of him. Still haven't heard from anyone I know in NJ, CO or PA.
_________________
Floydboy
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| Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:29 am |
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