I am writing from Costa Rica, where I am spending my semester (on a beach!).

The closest (Spanish) newspaper to me is 6km away, the closest New York Times is probably around 30km away. Roads here are replete with pot holes. Daring for most, even more for timid city drivers. Internet is shaky. It takes me about an hour to download a .pdf newspaper, if the connection is steady. That is rare.

That's a long digression, but for obvious reasons, I am not in touch with the election. Why is McCain gaining now? In states like WA? What should Obama's strategy be?

Virginia is not quite a lost cause, nor is Florida or Ohio. But the truth is, if he gets Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, with everything Kerry had in '04, he wins. He should be most active in those states -- instead of the bigger ones where the statistical discrepancy is greater and anything can happen on Election Day.

The candidate known as McSame is gainging due to his post convention bounce, and said bounce has him tied with Obama in most recent national polls. Give it 2 weeks, Obama will back in the lead.

A lot of it is something new that has excited people -- his VP pick. This campaign has been going on for years now literally and the VP pick has made people pay attention again.

It will die down soon -- especially as more allegations come out about her (the latest: apparently she padded her expense sheet and billed the state for "trips" that occurred in her own house).

But I agree that she is exciting -- she has a good personality, even though I disagree with her on everything. That helps, because people stupidly tend to vote on who they like (see: Bush v. Kerry). It worries me a bit, because we Democrats tend to vote based on our brains while Republicans vote based on their hearts, and the hearts usually win.

You live for juicy gossip

To me, that's much less egregious than her repeated lying about the Bridge To Nowhere, reforms, and claims to fiscal conservatism.

Her home town went from being debt free to $20 million in debt by the time she left (despite getting $27 million in federal earmarks) in a town of just 6500 people. She lobbied for the Bridge To Nowhere and only opposed it AFTER the project was ridiculed, then canceled by Congress. But she KEPT THE MONEY that was given to Alaska for the bridge and used it on other projects. And that's on top of all of the other federal money she's requested for Alaska DESPITE a state budget surplus of $5 billion from oil revenue.

Obama chose VP on the basis of who would be best and most qualified for the job. Biden is a good choice for the WH and would work in the case of a pres. replacement. But he's boring and doesn't bring much excitement or further inclination to vote for the Dems this year.

McCain chose VP on the basis of who will help him win the election. Palin has 0 foreign policy experience and a lot of rough patches in her career. She was a mayor of a town of 8,000 2 years ago and went through college hoping to work for ESPN. Considering McC could die, that's a sketchy person to be put in a presidential position. But she has the woman factor and is pretty and charismatic and has ignited the campaign, she's become a media rock star and more than makes up for McC being so old and feeble... they found someone who can combat Obama's speaking and crowd ability.

The Dems have fallen to the trap of the last 8 years... Gore and Kerry lost because even though they were good fits for the job, they were boring, while people liked Bush. Obama won because he was more exciting than Hil, even though for years before that they were more than prepared to wrongly embrace her as the choice, before he rose up. They made the same mistake again. There's a lot of time left, but nevertheless I think in terms of the VP choice, the Republicans one upped them. The race is really more like McC/Palin vs Obama than vs Obama/Biden.

McCain will win with 275 electoral votes. My prediction.

Just to clarify, Palin changed her position on the Bridge to Nowhere (from for to against); Obama and Biden stayed the course (for it)?

Is that correct?

No. Palin is saying that she was against it, which isn't true. She lobbied for the bridge, kept the money for the bridge, and only came out against it after it was already dead. She has not thus far admitted to flip-flopping on it or that she kept the money for it.

And neither Obama nor Biden are basing their experience on opposing earmarks. Palin is, even though as mayor and governor she has requested hundreds of millions of dollars in federal earmarks.

There was so much negative press around her when she first came out, the lady freaked you out and now she became a rockstar.

Imo she has become greater then her criticisms.

She has won over a ton of white voters and imo it would take a really serious scandal to hurt her.

Why didn't Obama get destroyed by the Pastor controversy because he was so popular people were willing to overlook it.


If the image is great and popular enough, she can be the next Anti-Christ and Independents will still go "crazy about her".


Being an Idealistic does not win elections...

Ideally we would want people to like Biden, however people like Palin more and Biden is having Zero impact.
Ideally, the VP choice should have little to do with the overall election, but realistically in this election it will.
Ideally, people should realize Obama has made a wise choice, while McCain has made a choice just to win. Realistically, Biden has been missing.


I am an Indepedent who is leaning McCain but I respect and admire Obama and Biden...

Yep, one thing democrats have against them is that they vote with their head instead of their heart.

The average American does the opposite, and constantly elects people who disagree with them on most issues simply because they like the person and want to have a beer with them.

We Democerats are idealists who constantly think that the American people just can't be that stupid to fall for that crap again, and we are constantly proven wrong. Come on, this is a society that makes Paris Hilton into a hero.

And when you're with Palin, she'll put that beer on the taxpayer tab, like the good small government conservative she is.

So democrats should bring out a person you can have beer with.

Stop crying wolf, and do something about it, Democrats.

You had victory given to you a silver platter and you ruin it by taking the moral high ground again??

Why or WHY!!!

That would be Biden, although I doubt Dems can bring themselves to sell him that way. He's certainly the blue-collar working man of the candidates, though.



We can't help it.

Like in college football, the quality of the win matters, not just the win. I wouldn't have been comfortable with Hillary winning the way she was campaigning, even if it meant a Dem in the WH.

Well I believe in that you must do rather "bad" things to get elected.

The reason why I believe such a terrible thing, is because the Republicans do and as long as Democrats take the moral high ground (that clearly does not help) they will either just win by a hair or be Yelling at God going "WHY!!"

Well, I kind of agree. The Democrats have been bad about underestimating the importance of charisma.

Seriously, if you look at every election in recent memory, the candidate who had the greater charisma always won.

Obama beats McCain in this regard easily, but Palin finally gives McCain some personality; it's almost as if she is the Presidential candidate and he is the VP one.

After her glow dies down a bit -- especially after the debates -- people may remember it's really a race between Obama and McCain.

I respect your optimism but you know other wise....

There's also the fact that we've already gotten so many Obama/change! speeches over the last year with the extended Hillary battle, the initial shine and wow factor's kind of worn down. Palin's fresh and shiny.

this perfectly sums up what is going on washington, and i am dead serious:



and people are buying into this...

True, but Obama and Biden are running on change...

And that is true? Obama is about much change as you can get from Bush.

To the subject of this thread, no way in hell Obama loses Washington. I think it is just a strange outlier. The western side of the state is just too Democratic (and populated ) to compensate for the very conservative/libertarian eastern side of the state.

Perhaps the pollster overrepresented people on the eastern side of the state or maybe people on the western side wanted to thumb their fingers into the east sides eye. Go WSU and UW!

They're running on a change platform. Okay. What does the transportation bill have to do with that? Given his stance on health care, alternative energy and the like, he's clearly not running on a platform of smaller government or railing against earmarks. In fact, he's made his earmark requests public and has urged others to do the same.

McCain and Palin are running on an ANTI-EARMARK platform, and she supported the Bridge To Nowhere, lobbied for it, and has since lied about it. In fact, McCain included at least one of Palin's earmark requests in his list of the most egregious pork barrel offenders. She lobbied for and received $27 million in earmarks while mayor of a town of 6500 people. Now she's against govt pork and is claiming to be the reform candidate. See the difference?

Palin has not lied, she just is misleading the american people. same thing with the jet and ebay.

misleading the american people...sounds familar...