what evidence do you have that mccain will win ohio?

what evidence do you have that mccain will win ohio?

To risk being politically incorrect...

Ohio has a low average education level. The lower a person's level of education, the less likely his or her likelihood of supporting Obama. It's one of the clearest statistical relationships this election season. That's not an insult, it's a gaping-wide numerical fact. Clinton has poisoned a good number of these "low information" voters against Obama for good, and they will not be able to rationalize their way out of that rut. Many will stay home in November.

In summary, McCain will not win Ohio, but Obama will lose it.

That said, Clinton has her own set of weak states, such as Oregon, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Same reason he had no prayer in PA, the demographics shape out terribly for him.

Yeah, against Hillary. Against McCain they favor him.

California is a defining example of the trend. Obama won the white vote in California.

Not necessarily. PA and OH are demographically better states for Hillary. Low-information voters are very hard to budge, given Clinton has thoroughly convinced them Obama would ruin our country.

After all, most Obama supporters are Democrats, and would vote for Clinton in the GE.

But he lost the state by more than 9 percentage points.
As for winning the White vote here you go. He was killed in the latino vote as well which is a very important vote.

Do not forget that many Obama supporters are Low information voters as well.

I think this is a very good example of how correlation does not imply causation. It may be true that there is a correlation between education levels and which candidate a person votes for, but in no way does that imply that the more education you receive the more likely you are to vote for Obama.

But all populations don't have equal education levels by percentage.

But that's what all the exit polls keep showing. It's why Hillary can claim he's an "elitist" too.

Suppose that a student performed poorly on a test and guesses that the cause was not studying. To prove this, we think of the counterfactual - the same student writing the same test under the same circumstances but having studied the night before. If we could rewind history, and change only one small thing (making the student study for the exam), then causation could be observed (by comparing version 1 to version 2). Because we cannot rewind history and replay events after making small controlled changes, causation can only be inferred, never exactly known. This is referred to as the Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference - it is impossible to directly observe causal effects.

I am aware of that. My point is that we were talking about the number of educated voters and the Clinton -Obama gap. Removing the black population from the vote would not make the gap between Obama and Clinton on educated voters grow wider. It would stay the same or may even increase in Clintons favorsince we are only talking about a portion of a population.....BTW the same woudl be true with the removal of the educated white population.

That's just not logically a sound argument.

Think of it mathematically (with these totally made up numbers). Assume 60% of the 1000 people who voted for Obama are educated, and only 40% of the 1000 people who voted for Clinton are educated. That means that 600 of Obama's and 400 of Hillary's voters are educated.

Now say 100 of Obama's voters are black, and of those 100, 80% aren't educated. Thus 80 of the 400 uneducated Obama voters are black. If you remove the black voters, you now have 900 people who voted for Obama. Of that 900, 580 would be educated, making 64.4% of his voters educated, up from the 60% previously.

Since 90% of the black population votes for Obama, Clinton would see this effect on a much smaller scale, since only about 10 of her voters would be uneducated, and thus it would impact her 'score' much less.

Which is why, if you remove the black demographic, which we are assuming has a higher % of uneducated voters, it will raise the % of educated voters for Obama, while not really altering Hillary's %.

90% of all statistics can be made to say anything. 50% of the time.