Going by statistical precedent, i.e. the mean inaccuracy of exit polls, that would give Hillary an 11-point win. Damn, Mark Penn's got some good internals.
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| Author: | Bodrul [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Pennslyvania result |
source - http://www.drudgereport.com/ if this holds, surely Clintons chances are over |
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| Author: | jujubee [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
Stupid Drudge. Hasn't he learned his lesson? He gets everyone's hopes up by releasing the early polling, unweighted, and then when it's off by even a bit, everyone declares Obama the big loser, because at 5, he was supposed to win! |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
Going by statistical precedent, i.e. the mean inaccuracy of exit polls, that would give Hillary an 11-point win. Damn, Mark Penn's got some good internals.
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
I've gotten 8% on an exam once back in school. I failed that class. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
i wish but doubt its that close. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
Full exit poll results. It calculates to 52-48 Clinton indeed. |
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| Author: | dolcevita [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
Damn, the one thing I think of when I look at State exit polls is that the Dems are consistenty about 58/42 female/male. That means over fifteen percent of female democrats are married/dating of will eventually marry/date a Republican. If we just got a little Lysistrata action going, the Dems would never be in fear of losing a general election. 
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| Author: | Excel [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
loyalfromlondon wrote: why say too close to call when 0% are reporting. excit polls. where the fuck are the real results?????? |
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| Author: | Bodrul [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
too close to call = over for hillary
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| Author: | Caius [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
Bodrul wrote: too close to call = over for hillary They said the same thing in Ohio for much of the night and that was a solid Hillary win. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
with 0% in Clinton is winning 66% to Obama's 34% over at MSNBC. it's over she'll keep running. 
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| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
KidRock69x wrote: Bodrul wrote: too close to call = over for hillary They said the same thing in Ohio for much of the night and that was a solid Hillary win. Ohio had early voting, which favored Clinton by a healthy margin, while PA doesn't, so I think the exit polls should be closer to the actual than what we had seen in previous states. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Exit polls - Clinton 52 - 48 Obama at 5pm |
Fox News called it for Hillary. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
With 12% count in Philadelphia, Obama is only winning 52-48. Without a bigger margin there, we should be looking at a double-digit Clinton win. |
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| Author: | dolcevita [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
xiayun wrote: With 12% count in Philadelphia, Obama is only winning 52-48. Without a bigger margin there, we should be looking at a double-digit Clinton win. Nutter was campaigning for her pretty heavily. That might have helped. He really likes her. But frankly, I think that number is going to change dramatically in the next, like, two minutes. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
loyalfromlondon wrote: Have we figured out yet why Obama can't beat Hillary in these big states? I heard lots of theories since 5 AM this morning but none really makes sense. Yes, she was up 20 points at some point. Yes, he outspent her 3-1. He's the presumed frontrunneer, leading on all fronts, any barbs being thrown at him don't stick. And yet this happened. I think past studies showed money (as long as one has some) is statistically uncorrelated with the final results. That should be especially true in this primary, where the demographics, except for Wisconsin, have remained steadfast in their resolve behind their respective candidates, broken the same way throughout, and proven to be most important factor in how the result in each state will turn out. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
Dolcinea wrote: xiayun wrote: With 12% count in Philadelphia, Obama is only winning 52-48. Without a bigger margin there, we should be looking at a double-digit Clinton win. Nutter was campaigning for her pretty heavily. That might have helped. He really likes her. But frankly, I think that number is going to change dramatically in the next, like, two minutes. Still only 55-45 Obama in Philly with 34% reporting, but Pittsburgh votes are now being counted, and the overall margin is down to 48-52. |
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| Author: | Groucho [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
It would have been nice had he won and ended this, but he's still doing better than people would have predicted just 3 weeks ago. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
Now 58-42 in Philly; that's more like what was expected. Looking more likely the final margin will be around 5%. Obama will certainly take that. |
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| Author: | jujubee [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
xiayun wrote: Now 58-42 in Philly; that's more like what was expected. 60-40 |
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| Author: | Jeff [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 11:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
loyalfromlondon wrote: hopefully the double-digit holds. |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 11:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
loyalfromlondon wrote: It sucks that those early caucuses, which will go Republican in Nov election anyway, went to Obama. Are you talking about Iowa, which is a blue state for Obama and a red state for Clinton? Or Nevada, which Clinton actually won? |
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| Author: | redspear [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 11:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
Angela Merkel wrote: loyalfromlondon wrote: It sucks that those early caucuses, which will go Republican in Nov election anyway, went to Obama. Are you talking about Iowa, which is a blue state for Obama and a red state for Clinton? Or Nevada, which Clinton actually won? Obama says that he won NV. Which is true he won the delegates. Since Caucuses are diffirent then primaries all that could be said si taht Clinton got more delegate votes. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 11:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
loyalfromlondon wrote: I just heard on MSNBC that Elizabeth Edwards may campaign for Hillary in North Carolina.  SurveryUSA has Obama with a 9 point lead, just released. I can only think winning PA by 10 points can only help (if such a lead is accurate enough). A PA win + an Edwards endorsement would be just perfect. Hopefully that rumor? (have a link?) is true. And she has yet another super popular GOV (Evan Bayh) on her side in Indiana. That, with the close polls in that state (before the PA win they were very close) will hopefully propel her to a nice win there. EDIT: If Hillary was able to win both Indiana and North Carolina, that would be absolutely HUGE for her. |
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| Author: | Caius [ Tue Apr 22, 2008 11:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pennslyvania result |
Do you really believe that endorsements are that large of a factor? Certainly access to an endorser's in-state machine is help, but not that much. And Mrs. Edwards? Please, what does she bring to the table that Hillary doesn't already have, in spade. |
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