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| Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=39949 |
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| Author: | Excel [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 1:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/200803 ... 0803310853 I have noted a number of myths amongst the comments here as to why Hillary should stay in the race. Here are ten enduring, kudzu-like myths, with the debunking they sorely need. Myth: This race is tied No, actually, it's not. Obama has the lead in number of states won, in pledged delegates and in overall delegates. Nothing will happen in the remaining primaries to substantially change that. As to the one thing Hillary does lead in, superdelegates, her quickly shrinking margin is among DNC personnel only. When you look at the elected superdelegates, Congressman, Senators and Governors (i.e. people who actually work with both Obama and Clinton) Obama leads there, too. Myth: Okay, the popular vote is tied. There are people who claim that because of the 3% separation, that Obama's lead in the popular vote is a "statistical tie." This is a myth because, when you can actually count things, there's no need of statistics and no such thing as a margin of error. The popular vote is not an estimate based on a sampling, like a poll. Like the general election, there are winners and losers and, so far, Obama is the winner. Myth: Fine, but what if we count electoral votes? NOW Hillary is ahead! Not so much. The proportions of electoral votes to population versus delegates to population are pretty comparable. So if you allocated electors proportionally in the same manner that you allocate delegates, Obama is still ahead. If you allocate them on a winner-take-all basis, then that would be the same as allocating the delegates on a winner-take-all basis, so why bring electors into it? Myth: But if we did do it like the Electoral College, that proves Hillary is more electable than Obama, because of states like California. This is perhaps the saddest little myth of all. It's ridiculous to suggest that Obama will lose New York and California to McCain because Clinton won them in the primaries. No, come November, those states will join with Obama's Illinois to provide 40% of the electors necessary for him to win. Myth: Very well, then, Mr. Smarty-Math. But if we counted Michigan and Florida, THEN Hillary would be winning! Nooo, she wouldn't. The margin would depend on how you allocate the delegates, but Obama would still be ahead. And he'd still be about 100,000 ahead in the popular vote, too, despite not even being on the ballot in Michigan. However, it would enhance Hillary's chances of catching up in the remaining races. Myth: Ah HA! So Dean is keeping them out just to help Obama! And Obama is keeping them out. That's two myths, but I'll treat it like one. The only people who can come up with a solution to this problem are the states themselves, to be presented to the Rules and Regulations Committee of the DNC for ratification. It was Rules and Regs, not Howard Dean, who ruled that Florida and Michigan were breaking the rules when they presented their original primary plans. If the two states cannot come up with a plan to reselect delegates, they can try to seat whatever delegates were chosen in the discounted primaries by appealing to the Democratic Convention's Credentialing Committee, which includes many members from Rules and Bylaws. Myth: If they don't get seated until the convention but a nominee is selected before these poor people get counted then these states are disenfranchised. There are two ways to debunk this myth: semantically and practically. The first is based on the word "disenfranchised:" these people have not been deprived of their right to vote. Through the actions of their states, their votes don't impact the outcome. Now, you may say that that is specious semantics (Myth: I do say that!) but practically speaking, this is the usual effect of the nominating process, anyway. All of the Republican primaries since McCain clinched the nomination have been meaningless, but those voters are not disenfranchised. Florida and Michigan tried to become more relevant in the process by breaking the rules. They risked becoming irrelevant instead. Myth: Well, I say they are disenfranchised, and Hillary Clinton is their champion. Only when it suits her. Last fall, when the decision was first made to flush 100% of Michigan and Florida delegates, Clinton firmly ratified it. That was because the typical punishment of only 50% representation also kept the candidates from raising money in those states. Figuring that she would wrap up the nomination handily anyway, the clear front-runner agreed with all the other candidates - including Obama - to completely "disenfranchise" those two states. Myth: Well, never mind 2007. She's doing more now to bring them in. Not really. Recent stories in the St. Petersburg Times political blog said that 1) the Obama camp has reached out to the Florida Democratic party about a compromise and that 2) the Clinton camp will discuss nothing else but re-votes, which are legally, practically and politically dead. Myth: Whatever! Hillary can still win! I know she can! She and her 37% positive rating will sweep through the remaining primaries and Michigan and Florida, winning 70% of everything and superdelegates will flock to her banner and Barack Obama will personally nominate her at the Convention and John McCain will give up and George Bush will even quit early so she can take over and... and... and... can I have a glass of water? Yes, and you should lie down, too. |
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| Author: | Bradley Witherberry [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 7:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Heh. The author of this article seems to have forgotten he's writing about politics, not counting a bag of pennies. It's not a zero-sum game. Actually, I'm certain he didn't forget, because it's just another attempt to mislead the simple-minded into believing that the contest is over. People who write and/or believe this kind of manipulative article are going to freak when Ms. Clinton wins the nomination and then the Presidency... "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride." 
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| Author: | Excel [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Except she wont win the presedency because she wont get nominated.  She'll drop out shortly after the primaries are done. |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
A 10-point lead is nothing in the second quarter. It's practically insurmountable with two minutes left in the fourth quarter. Clinton's support in Pennsylvania is falling. |
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| Author: | Groucho [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Hillary's lead is down to 5 points in PA, with 21 days left to go to the election. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_cont ... al_primary |
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| Author: | Mannyisthebest [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 7:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Hilary will take Penn, she has done well in the big states... I think most of you guys overestimate the man. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 9:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
noone is expecting him to win; she should it big and if she doesnt itll be a failure. corpse has a said a sub10% victory is a failure given everythign she has going for it on her. |
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| Author: | Eagle [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
If she only wins by 1-5%, then she's toast. If she wins by 5-8% she's still hurting. If she wins by 9-11 she's going strong. If she wins by 12+ she's a strong contender. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Eagle wrote: If she wins by 9-11 she's going strong. sadly that's how much she's going to win by. 
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| Author: | nghtvsn [ Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Eagle wrote: If she only wins by 1-5%, then she's toast. If she wins by 5-8% she's still hurting. If she wins by 9-11 she's going strong. If she wins by 12+ she's a strong contender. She's toast regardless of what she wins by. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Eagle wrote: If she only wins by 1-6%, then she's toast. If she wins by 7-12% she's still hurting. If she wins by 13-19 she's going strong. If she wins by 20+ she's a strong contender. fixed anythign under 10% would be horrible givein EVERYTHING-coprse made a huge list-going for her. |
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| Author: | Beeblebrox [ Mon Apr 07, 2008 2:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Mannyisthebest wrote: I think most of you guys overestimate the man. Barring the super delegates overturning the popular vote or the pledged delegates, Obama is going to beat Hillary for the nomination. Maybe the mistake is UNDER-estimating him. |
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| Author: | Mannyisthebest [ Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
no you fail to see my point, he will the democratic race, he still is still is being overestimated as people think he will cream Barrack Obama. |
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| Author: | Beeblebrox [ Fri Apr 11, 2008 5:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Mannyisthebest wrote: no you fail to see my point, he will the democratic race, he still is still is being overestimated as people think he will cream Barrack Obama. I'm sorry, what? Barack Obama will cream Barack Obama? |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Fri Apr 11, 2008 12:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race |
Beeblebrox wrote: I'm sorry, what? Barack Obama will cream Barack Obama? That is called masturbation. |
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