The Wisconsin primary this Tuesday could be more important than it seems. If Hillary pulls out a win - and some polls show her ahead or even - the media will probably spin it as a big comeback because they want a close fight.

How do you see it affecting Obama's momentum if that happens?

We can also use this thread for results talk about it tomorrow.

dpeneds on the delegates. if they end up even with delegates, its still an obama victory.

It's more important for Obama. If Hillary wins I think he's toast.

I'm not sure why he'd be toast. He's ahead of her nationally and in Texas and gaining fast in Ohio. Her only chance is to win big in both Ohio and Texas, not just win. A Wisconsin win would help her a little, mainly with media coverage, but it's debatable if it would help her enough. When it comes down to it, his supporters are more passionate than hers and he has more money.

This speech flap thing going on now, charges of plagiarism, is mixing things up though. It's interesting because she's been stealing Obama's lines for weeks.

She hasn't had any momentum for weeks now. A win in Wisconsin seems almost essential to give her a boost before March 4th.

"She did it first!" that's Obama's camp's defense. lol

I woud insult, but I'll hold back out of pity for clinton suporters, because if things go the way they loko like they will....

No Hillary in 2008

You're wrong about the polls in Texas, as Obama is not leading, he is trailing.

If Obama loses:

Wisconsin
Texas
Ohio
Pennsylvania

He's done.

He's probably in deep trouble even if he loses 3 outa the 4, and as of now, that's what it looks like will happen.

eagle you dont understand. winning does not matter. its delegates.

and again, unless she wins big, she wont get the pldeged delegatres lead....which means the vast majority of the super delegates that are undecided will be heading toward obama.

Obama would have to win big for that as well. You can't discredit that she will have a significant number of delegates as well. It's not like obama will have 2000 and Hillary 1000. Super delegates will have to consider where Hillary won. If she sweeps the big, important states, they just can't go for Obama because of his momentum. While it's not the touchdown Hillary had hoped for before the primaries, it also isn't a decisive defeat. You should at least have the respect to wait until after 3/4 to start talking in clear absolutes.

No they wont. Its not like if Hillary doesnt run, the democrats wont win California or something. If Obama runs, he'll take most if not all of the states Clinton took. HOWEVER, if Clinton runs, she will not take all the ones Barack took. The superdelegates will look at several things if its too close to call

1. Most TOTAL votes
2. Most PLEDGED delegates
3. Most TOTAL delegates
4. Most States
5. Size/importance of the state

But i think the deciding factor will be...Who is in better position to beat John McCain?

Obama takes all of em.

Again, you cannot honestly tell me that if Obama has the popular vote by a margin of atleast 500,000 (right now it;s around 900,000) and most pledged delegates,thathe wont get the nomination. Superdelegates know that the people voting for Obama wont be voting for anybody else. All these young people....it'll be him or they wont vote while Obama will still take many of Clinton supporters because they are hardcore democrats who wont have Bush 2.0 in the office.



How are you surprised shes still in it? Shes Hillary Clinton, she aint gonna leave. 2nd, theres no he coulda finsihed her off after Iowa, even if he had won new hampshire. You dont go from Golioth to David after 2 states. Obama has yet to finish her off for 2 reasons.

1. He isnt playing dirty. For many, Hillary is very easy to dislike but Obama has opted not to play that card.

2. She wont leave. For the good of her party, she should drop out if she doesnt get large victories in delegates from Texas and Ohio because if this huge push and media attention those 2 states are recieving about how they need to vote for her if she wants to continue...she needs to leave, but she wont.

This is simply flawed logic.

If Hillary wins Texas, regardless of if she gains an overwhelming number of delegates, she still WON the state. There is nothing that says, anywhere, that if she doesn't win 'big' and take over the pledged delegate count that she won't win the Super Delegates.

The Super Delegates have clearly broken almost 2-1 for Hillary before this little 10-0 run of Obama's. If Hillary wins TX, OH, and PA, they will continue to break for her, regardless of the pledged delegate count.

Even if the superdelegates go for Hillary, there would have to be enough to tip the balance to her, and right now there isn't.

In other words, unless she wins Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by huge margins, neither candidate will have enough delegates to win the nomination even with the superdelegates.

Which means, under the rules, there would have to be a convention in August, everyone would vote who they pledged to on the first ballot, and after that, anyone can change their vote.

That would be damned exciting, and I wish the convention were in May instead, but geez, if we don't have a candidate by August, it's really going to hurt the party.

eagle, just about all of hillary super delegates endorsed her MONTHS ago. Nobodys been "breaking for her" since September.

um. that 21 y/o super delegate said on CNN yesterday he was still undecided. it's not like those who didn't pledge to her at the beginning have completely abandoned the idea of endorsing her.

No shit, but all those undecided are going to go for the ones with the most pledged delegates.

nancy pelosi says, it, most delegates say it, and most political analysts say it. Whoever wins the popular vote or the most pledged delegates will get the VAST majority of the super delegates.

Like I said, they will not go against the voters. PERIOD. They wont hand the nomination to someone with 1 million less votes. It WONT HAPPEN. Even if it is Hillary Clinton.

How hard is that to understand?

Duh! Not disagreeing with you on the process. You just assume it's going to be Obama when it's all said and done. And you're about a week early to make such a prediction.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

Lots of answers to your questions there.

He talked about quite a few of them at a Town Hall style meeting today in San Antonio. One of the San Antonio news sites had a live feed of it. He actually explained things pretty clearly with more details.

The early words have Obama running even with Hillary among women. That'd point to a big win for him if that holds.

And the number one issue was the economy rather than health care. The war was ahead of health care at #2. Those are his two strongest points in the midwest because he has been going after her and Bill for NAFTA and that is basically like a dirty word in the midwest because they've lost so many jobs thanks to it. And the thing is, Hillary wasn't actually for it. But it's baggage from their time in the White House. They benefit from the nostalgia votes so I suppose this issue kind of cancels it out. Oh and I think one of the exit polls was the $50,000 question. It was 59-41 in favor of "greater than $50,000," which of course we know favors him.

I think it will still be close, like 5 points or less. They've both done well there.