There's not much more of interest with the Chesapeake Primary (barring a Clinton upset), so here we move on to:

Texas
Ohio
Rhode Island
Vermont

Let's start with an extremely detailed analysis of the Texas primary, district by district.

i better get registered stat!

You live in Texas, you mean? The deadline was last Monday...

That actually makes me glad. A lot of family friends in the immigrant community have been trying to pull people for Clinton, and most of the folks, including the organizers themselves, aren't registered in time!

BIG NEWS.

(for me, at least)

Obama has agreed to a Feb. 21 debate with Hillary in Texas.

Austin, Texas, to be precise.

The University of Texas, to be precise.

And guess who goes to UT!?!?

I can barely contain myself.

Lucky...

D'oh!

Don't want to rub it in (maybe just a little), but as a UT student and a political junkie, this was big, big news for me when the story broke. I also work at the copy desk of The Daily Texan, the UT newspaper where, like most college papers, often the newsiest above-the-fold story we get is a school board proposal.

I even got to write the "Obama, Clinton to debate on campus" play one headline!

We were all pretty psyched.

Too bad it might not even be open to the public.

Good lord, that's almost too much analysis for me to take in.

The caucus thing is a little wacky. I wonder how many realize that they're even happening. Outside of the Internet, I've actually heard nothing promoting them, even on campus. Only the primaries.

It's awesome to see, though, Texas (and with it, places like megachurchy Plano) being spoken of in Democratic terms.

March 4 can't get here soon enough.

We're hoping to out-organize Hillary, especially with this little-known caucus. I know that Houston grassroots have been creating almost 10x as many events as their HRC counterparts have. Much more energy with us.

Obama has pulled to an eleven-point lead in Wisconsin (from down 5 two weeks ago):

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... 021208.pdf

I am 100% convinced now that Clinton is screwed. As the links show, she's losing in Texas and Wisconsin, and as far as I remember, the states today as well. And with the frontrunner momentum now in his favour, he will only extend his leads. Obama has this all sewn up.

Peace,
Mike

texas?

Obama is still behind in Texas in percentage terms. The above analysis deals more with the quirky nature of Texas' delegate apportionment system, which includes both a primary AND caucus and other miscellaneous junk. In other words, with superior organization Obama can pull off a delegate victory in Texas while losing the statewide popular vote.

It's funny, I was just comparing the following two sites:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/tx
http://tx.barackobama.com

The Obama site has vastly more content. We have vastly more events. We even have the endorsements of the Dallas Morning News, Austin-American Statesman, San Antonio Express-News, and El Paso Times... not that it matters.

New Ohio poll from SurveyUSA:
Clinton - 56%
Obama - 39%

Also, New Carolina (SurveyUSA):
Obama - 50%
Clinton - 40%

its at 16 right now, if barack can get tobelow 10 and finish near 5-7ish, hes set.

That Ohio poll is at least the first good news for Clinton in a while. There are still a couple of things Obama could feel good about:

1. Among the people who already voted, he only trails 47 to 51;
2. There are still 28% undecided; if he could turn that from 9% deficit to a 9% advantage, he would cut the overall deficit in half.

But look like Texas is the better of the two places for Obama to pull off a win.

All this talk of Clinton's demise is greatly exaggerated.

Lawyer: I want to talk to you about taxes...

Chico Marx: Taxes! Hey, I gotta uncle living in taxes.

Lawyer: No, no! Taxes! You know.... money, dollars...

Chico Marx: That's where he lives! Dollars, Taxes.





Sorry, couldn't resist.

How so? How does Clinton have any chance of winning when Obama is projected to win in almost all of the upcoming states, and continues to outdo polling results with even bigger margins of win due to his momentum. All that, and he ALREADY has the pledged delegate lead!

And this is coming from someone who wants to see Clinton win, so please, show me how Clinton can win, because I don't see it. Heh.

Peace,
Mike

Its all over. Obama is now guaranteed to win the Democratic nomination. Its a lock.

She can win Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. There's a big gap between the current primaries and the four on March 4th, and a debate a week is likely. Clinton does well in debates, much moreso than Obama. If she can win in Ohio and Texas, along with Vermont and Rhode Island, that will give her momentum going into PA, which is more than a month after that. Granted, Obama seems to increase his base the more people get to know him and his views, so who knows. At this point it seems likely that Obama is getting the nomination, but it's not out of the question for Clinton to still get it. Superdelegates will break for her if she wins on March 4th...if she loses or splits, then they will break for Obama and the race is over.

She will probably win Ohio. She can win Pennsylvania. So it comes down to Texas. If she takes Texas then they're back on even footing. She's in Texas right now. Watching her on CNN right now in fact

And it begins...Hillary is scheduled to speak at Ohio State Thursday, Chelsea tomorrow. I expect Obama to come soon and both to spend a lot of time around the state.

I don't know if I will go see Chelsea, but I will go see Hillary.