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| Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=37333 |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday |
Just a month away, and since 24 states are having their primaries on FEB 5th, both winners from each party will be known. So it's not too early to discuss. I'll go ahead and provide multiple polls taken from all 24 states within the last month. I'll date them, and if no poll has been taken before the last week of NOV/First week of DEC, I won't include a poll for that state since any polls before then should be quite irrelevant at this time really. The numbers you see beside each state is how many delegates are up for grabs. It differs for both parties. Republicans: 1. Alabama 48 *No poll anytime after Thanksgiving, and the most recent was taken early NOV by Capital Survey Research Center, which had: Thompson 26%, Guiliani 24%, McCain 12%. But that could be the complete opposite by now, so don't take it as meaning much, especially since Thompson has done...nothing.. 2. Arizona 53 Rocky MT (11/20) Rudy Giuliani 20%, John McCain 18%, Mitt Romney 10% 3. Arkansas 34 *Pfft, most recent was way back in March.. Huckabee will win of course though. 4. California 173 Field Research Corp.(12-10/17) - Guiliani 25%, Huckabee 17%, Romney 15% Survey USA (12-14/16) - Giuliani 28%, Huckabee 20%, Romney 16% 5. Colorado 46 *No recent polls 6. Connecticut 30 Quinnipiac University (11-1/5) Giuliani 41%, Romney 13%, McCain 12% 7. Delaware 18 *No recent polls 8. Georgia 72 Insider Advantage (R) (12-17/18) Huckabee 36%, Giuliani 14%, Romney 12% Stragetic Vision (R) (12-7/9) Huckabee 23%, Thompson 20%, Giuliani 17% 9. Illinois 70 Chicago Tribune (12-9/13) Giuliani 23%, Huckabee 21%, 14% 10. Massachusetts * No recent polls 11. Minnesota 41 *No recent polls 12. Missouri 58 Research 2000 (11/16) Giuliani 24%, Romney 17%, Thompson 16% 13. New Jersey 52 Quinnipiac University (12-5/9) Giuliani 38%, McCain 12%, Huckabee 8% 14. New Mexico 32 *No recent polls 15. New York 101 Quinnipiac (12-4/10) Giuliani 34%, Huckabee 12%, McCain 11% Datamar (12-2/8) Giuliani 36%, Huckabee 14%, McCain 11% 16. North Carolina 69 Public Policy Polling (D) (12/3) Huckabee 33%, Giuliani 17%, Thompson 16% 17. Oklahoma 42 Tulsa World/KOTV Oklahoma Poll (12-16/19) Huckabee 29%, McCain 17%, Giuliani 11% 18. Oregon 30 *No recent polls 19. Rhode Island 20 *No recent polls 20. Tennessee 55 *No recent polls, but the one back in March show Thompson with a 30 point lead over Giuliani. 21. Utah 36 *No recent polls. 22. West Virginia 30 *No recent polls The REP needs around 1100 delegates to become the nominee Democrats 1. Alabama 60 Capital Survey Research Center (11-26/27) Clinton 46%, Obama 25%, Edwards 6% 2. Arizona 67 Cronkite/Eight Poll (11-15/18) Clinton 41%, Obama 23%, Edwards 14% Rocky Mountain Poll (11-12/15) Clinton 44%, Obama 14%, Edwards 11% 3. Arkansas 47 American Research Group (11-16/19) Clinton 49%, Obama 16%, Edwards 12% 4. California 440 Field Research Corp. (12-10/17) Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13% Survey USA (12-14/16) Clinton 49%, Obama 30%, Edwards 14% 5. Colorado 71 *No recent pills 6. Connecticut 61 Quinnipiac University (11-1/5) Clinton 45%, Obama 18%, Edwards 7% 7. Delaware 23 *No recent polls 8. Georgia 104 Insider Advantage (12-17/18) Obama 33%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 16% Strategic Vision (R) (12-7/9) Clinton 34%, Obama 27%, Edwards 12% 9. Idaho 23 *No recent polls 10. Illinois 185 Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (12-9/13) Obama 50%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 7% 11. Kansas 40 *No recent polls 12. Massachusetts 121 *No recent polls 13. Missouri 88 Research 2000 (11/16) Clinton 36%, Obama 21%, Edwards 20% 13. New Jersey 127 Quinnipiac University (12-5/9) Clinton 51%, Obama 17%, Edwards 7% 14. New Mexico 38 *No recent polls. But if Richardson doesnt drop out before FEB 5th, he has kept a 5-10 pt lead over Clinton, so he stands a good chance of winning here. Dropping out will shake things up big time. 15. New York 280 Quinnipiac University College (12-4/10) Clinton 55%, Obama 17%, 7% Datamar (12-2/8) Clinton 45%, Edwards 13%, Obama 11% 16. North Carolina 110 Public Policy Polling (D) (12/3) Clinton 31%, Edwards 26%, Obama 24% 17. Oklahoma 47 Tulsa-World/KOTV/Sooner Poll (12-16/19) Clinton 34%, Obama 25%, Edwards 15% 18. Tennessee 85 *No recent polls 19. Utah 29( *No recent polls The DEM needs 2025 delegates to become the nominee. And yes, New York and Cali make up over 1/3 of that at 720 combined |
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| Author: | Gulli [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 12:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
bump |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 12:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
It's quite clear that skipping all the primaries was a terrible idea on Giuliani's part given he was doing well in the polls before all the primaries (except for IA). Just look at NY! 20 points leads 3 weeks ago, and now it looks like McCain could very well beat him, WILL beat him if he loses FL. |
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| Author: | Jedi Master Carr [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 12:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Should be interesting to see what happens after next Tuesday. I think it is going to be far from clear who the winner for either party. I think one or both parties could go all the way till August. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 1:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
democratcs cant give hillary the nomination, they just cant. theyd be asking to lose the election then. her support is not going to get any bigger, |
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| Author: | Mr. Reynolds [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
ooh. Awesome thread corpse! love that you post polls. Do you have any updated numbers? |
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| Author: | Beeblebrox [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Corpse wrote: It's quite clear that skipping all the primaries was a terrible idea on Giuliani's part given he was doing well in the polls before all the primaries (except for IA). Just look at NY! 20 points leads 3 weeks ago, and now it looks like McCain could very well beat him, WILL beat him if he loses FL. His campaign manager must be a closeted Democrat. How else could you possibly explain it? |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
No Country for Sam wrote: ooh. Awesome thread corpse! love that you post polls. Do you have any updated numbers? Yeah, there's several updated polls. But it'll take time to update each state on both sides, and I don't have much time left tonight. Work tomorrow, blah. I'll try and update it tomorrow evening/night. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Beeblebrox wrote: Corpse wrote: It's quite clear that skipping all the primaries was a terrible idea on Giuliani's part given he was doing well in the polls before all the primaries (except for IA). Just look at NY! 20 points leads 3 weeks ago, and now it looks like McCain could very well beat him, WILL beat him if he loses FL. His campaign manager must be a closeted Democrat. How else could you possibly explain it? I actually think it could have worked, but not in this election. It's being covered extensively, with every little poll, endorsement, comment,etc. . being analyzed for days. Each primary is like a more than mini-Election Day. And Super Tuesday is going to be just like election day really. Except it's doubtful there'll be a clear winner from either side. So in a less covered election, I think the strategy could have worked. And I don't understand why some are shocked over his average performance in NY. Even before any of the primaries, his support wasn't all that great. He isn't that well liked in NY. And Giuliani vs Clinton was pretty popular months and months ago, because some REPS thought he could defeat her in NY. Sorry, but he wouldnt stand a chance. He wouldnt defeat Obama in NY. And probably not even Edwards. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Delegate Count Update: DEMS: Clinton - 246 (+9 SC) - 52% Obama - 173 (+19 SC) - 37% Edwards - 52 (+2 SC) - 11% REPS: Romney - 59 Huckabee - 40 McCain - 36 Paul - 4 Giuliani - 1 -same percentages as last time for the REPS update. And FL will either give McCain or Romney frontrunner status going into Super Tuesday, or bring Giuliani possibly back into. Huckabee looks to be out though... possible to place 3rd in FL, but that isnt going to help. And he doesnt have enough state by state appeal to do much... and remember that the delegates among the REPS are winner take all. Whoever wins the state wins all the delegates, unlike the DEMs. |
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| Author: | Groucho [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 1:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Things can change in just a few days, as we saw in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. By the way, here are some political election sites I tend to visit a lot; most have poll results. http://www.politico.com/ http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings ... /index.htm http://www.pollster.com/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/ http://www.electoral-vote.com/ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/ |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 1:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Real Clear Politics probably has the best compendium of polls around. Watch them over the next week and see if anything happens. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 1:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Groucho wrote: Things can change in just a few days, as we saw in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. By the way, here are some political election sites I tend to visit a lot; most have poll results. http://www.politico.com/ http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings ... /index.htm http://www.pollster.com/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/ http://www.electoral-vote.com/ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/ I will add http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/. |
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| Author: | Groucho [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 1:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Thanks for the new links, folks. I'll check them out. |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 2:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Both Caroline Kennedy and Ted Kennedy are endorsing Obama tomorrow. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/pol ... y_end.html |
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| Author: | Dkmuto [ Sun Jan 27, 2008 2:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Angela Merkel wrote: Both Caroline Kennedy and Ted Kennedy are endorsing Obama tomorrow. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/pol ... y_end.html Caroline's op-ed in The Times today: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opini ... ef=opinion "I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president." |
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| Author: | mdana [ Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Beeblebrox wrote: Corpse wrote: It's quite clear that skipping all the primaries was a terrible idea on Giuliani's part given he was doing well in the polls before all the primaries (except for IA). Just look at NY! 20 points leads 3 weeks ago, and now it looks like McCain could very well beat him, WILL beat him if he loses FL. His campaign manager must be a closeted Democrat. How else could you possibly explain it? Well he didn't do well in Iowa, so he abandoned that state early and switched to make his entrance in New Hampshire. Then after 2 months of campaigning solely in New Hampshire his polls numbers fell when the slush fund for his mistress (now wife #3) became public. So, then he abandoned New Hampshire and made his line in the sand in Florida which seemed his strongest big state. His campaign was never going to do well, because he never polled well in the early states. It was necessity, not some sort of innovative way of campaigning. I don't think anyone could have saved his campaign. He was never going to win the Republican nomination. No mayor has ever won the nomination in either party. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... html#polls |
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| Author: | Jedi Master Carr [ Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
mdana wrote: Beeblebrox wrote: Corpse wrote: It's quite clear that skipping all the primaries was a terrible idea on Giuliani's part given he was doing well in the polls before all the primaries (except for IA). Just look at NY! 20 points leads 3 weeks ago, and now it looks like McCain could very well beat him, WILL beat him if he loses FL. His campaign manager must be a closeted Democrat. How else could you possibly explain it? Well he didn't do well in Iowa, so he abandoned that state early and switched to make his entrance in New Hampshire. Then after 2 months of campaigning solely in New Hampshire his polls numbers fell when the slush fund for his mistress (now wife #3) became public. So, then he abandoned New Hampshire and made his line in the sand in Florida which seemed his strongest big state. His campaign was never going to do well, because he never polled well in the early states. It was necessity, not some sort of innovative way of campaigning. I don't think anyone could have saved his campaign. He was never going to win the Republican nomination. No mayor has ever won the nomination in either party. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... html#polls I could have sworn their was a democrat in the 1870s who did and he lost so badly he killed himself or was he was something else? |
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| Author: | mdana [ Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Jedi Master Carr wrote: I could have sworn their was a democrat in the 1870s who did and he lost so badly he killed himself or was he was something else? You must be thinking of Horace Greeley who was most famous as a publisher, but had been a member of Congress back in the 1840s for 3 months. His wife died right around the election and besides losing the election, lost a fortune in speculation, and his newspaper. He descended into madness and died at the end of November. |
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| Author: | Mr. Reynolds [ Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
I have to admit that I am a bit impressed by Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama. No idea if that was expected or not. Also don't know if Ted Kennedy should be influential or not really, but ti does bring good press to Obama. We need Jesus to endorse Hillary! Jesus for Hillary 2008!! |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
I'm sure the Southern Baptist Convention would assert that Jesus endorses Huckabee. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
A couple of new polls in NY and CA are out, but they were conducted before the big SC victory and Kennedy's endorsement, so the bounce, if any, is still unknown. Look like the margin in CA is only going to get narrower. I'm so bummed that I can't get a chance to vote. |
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| Author: | Anita Hussein Briem [ Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy heads to Socal to drum up support among Hispanic voters. It would coincide well with those bilingual ads calling for drivers licenses for immigrants. |
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| Author: | Beeblebrox [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
Angela Merkel wrote: I'm sure the Southern Baptist Convention would assert that Jesus endorses Huckabee. At any rate, Huckabee claims that Jesus endorses Huckabee. So it must be true. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Duper Tuesday |
I'm not going to bother updating the first post. While every state above may indeed have at least one new poll before FEB 5th, most won't until the last day or so. So I think just posting them as they come is better. 1/29 Flordia: DEMS: SurveyUSA: Clinton 52, Obama 28, Edwards 13 REPS: InsiderAdvantage: McCain 31, Romney 30, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13 SurveryUSA: McCain 32, Romney 31, Giulaini 13, Huckabee 13 Reuters/CSpan: McCain 35, Romney 31, Giuliani 13, Hukcabee 13 California: DEMS: SurveryUSA: Clinton 49, Obama 38, Edwards 9 Politco/CNN/LAT: Clinton 49, Obama 32, Edwards 14 REPS: SurveyUSA: McCain 32, Romney 31, Giuliani 15, Huckabee 13 Politico/CNN/LAT: McCain 39, Romney 26, Giuliani 13, Huckabee 11 Oklahoma: DEMS: SurveyUSA: Clinton 44, Edwards 27, Obama 19 REPS: SurveryUSA: McCain 37, Huckabee 28, Romney 19, Giuliani 6 |
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