What the hell is with Ohio? Did they learn nothing from last time?

It takes time, i.e. old people dying. A lot of time, to be precise. The youth vote has not been this imbalanced in recent history -- a couple decades from now, the electorate will be structurally liberal.

On a different note... Florida?

Not even in the 60s?

The 60's are a ways back, my friend. Someone 30 in 1964 is now 74 years old. It was recent history when Clinton was running for president, but it ain't 1992 anymore.

I have seen a few polls that have Obama up in Ohio. Do they only use certain polls for this?

This particular page only uses the most current one. Others average them out.

538 has Obama up in Ohio. They use a real statistical model, as opposed to Electoral-Vote.com.

Here's the map from pollster.com

I thought the most recent Ohio poll was Quinipiac's that had Obama by 2.

How recent is that? The ElectoralCollege.com site uses a poll from 7/29.

I think it was from Tuesday along with Florida and Penn polls, so I don't know what poll they are using.

That is the one I saw on MSNBC and CNN yesterday. Maybe that was from Wed or Thursday and it just hasn't been updated yet.

8/5:

Toward McCain:

Florida moves from barely DEM to weak GOP
Massachusetts moves from strong DEM to weak DEM (WTF?)



Obama: 289
McCain: 236
Ties: 13

MA polls are pointless. Undecideds in MA tend to break Dem.

I am sure that poll in Massachusetts is a mistake or something. That is one of the most liberal states in the U.S. Obama should win that by 30-40 points.

The problem is that all polls are kind of pointless at this stage, and you're going to see minor variances from day to day and poll to poll.

For instance, here is the Gallup results on a day to day basis of how far ahead Obama is each day:



But if you avarage them out over a ten day period, his average lead is pretty darn consistent:



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/0 ... 17058.html

I don't think you can tell much until after the conventions.

Obama's biggest margin will be in Hawaii.

MA will be a 20-point win.

I'm sure he'll manage well in Illinois as well.

He's a shoo-in in Illinois, but it won't be a historic blowout. Illinois would otherwise be a D+10 state. Obama could make it +15.

The Last poll in California had him up by 30 points though.
Kerry won MA by more than 30 points last year although he is from that state.

That's got to be an outlier. Obama is not up 30 points in the heavily populated coastal states, or his national lead would be much larger.

They were saying that on MSNBC. They said he had a 65-35% lead there in one poll.

They're making shit up. No poll adds up to 100% with no undecideds.

Still he should win California by at least 20% that state is heavily democratic.