^ That's what I saw too.

Yeah, McCain is starting to catch up in PA. Obama hasn't quite seemed to make any ground with the voters in the rural parts of the state, the most important area being between Pitt and Phili, I think it'll still go for Obama, but I doubt anything near a double digit win now. Maybe something like 52-48.

Since I keep up with the politics here, a recent poll had McCain up 5 over Obama in WV. Bill Clinton (first stop since May) and Gov. Manchin were campaigning for him yesterday, might see a bounce thanks to them, but WV will likely vote McCain though. He really has the senior vote locked up here, I've been noticing many, many seniors around here with McCain/Palin pins and such. Haven't noticed too much for Obama around me for some time now.

Hmm, so even though I used Nov 1st's map, the one he had on the site definitely changed from the one I saw this morning. O well.

Obama should do a last minute swing in Pen. to be safe imo.

I know Bill Clinton will be in Penn for Obama today.

Biden's swinging through Penn tomorrow, it's important to note however that Obama has really lost support mainly undecideds in earlier polls moving towards McCain.

Come on did you really expect McCain to get only 43-44% of the vote?


Of course he will end up near 47-48%

Dang, I just noticed that new Ohio poll. I think I may be leaning more towards 311 Obama 227 McCain. Of course this is dependent upon Obama maintaining his leads in CO, NM, NV and VA.

Its really the undecided making up their minds. I noticed CNN poll of polls is like 53-46 now.

USA Today/Gallup has the national at 53-42%.

11/3

According to the map there were no changes today. Colorado's lead continues to grow while Virginia's has decreased somewhat. Obama still has small leads in OH and FL. MO and NC are toss-ups.

We have 10 national polls today. On the average, Obama's lead in 7.1%. Here are the data.

- CBS News (Obama +13)
- Diageo (Obama +5)
- Gallup Expanded (Obama +9)
- IBD (Obama +2)
- Opinion Research (Obama +7)
- Pew (Obama +6)
- Rasmussem (Obama +5)
- Research 2000 (Obama +7)
- Washington Post/ABC News (Obama +11)
- Zogby (Obama +6)

The final pre-election Gallup poll released today has Obama leading by 11.

According to the Yahoo Map, McCain has now tied Obama in NC.


Expect a very close race there and if there is a tie, I would give it to McCain to pull through.

The polls are tightening due to how close it.

Aside from Palin prank call today there has been no major gaffes on either side the past week; for accurate polls go back a week ago or so.

Flordia has gone from leaning Democrate to barely democrat on the Yahoo board.


NC has gone from Tied to barley GOP as well.


Looks like a Obama landslide is unlikely.

Still 338-200 or 308-220 would be still strong.

Depends on a lot of things could have low turnout for republicans in some states.

I think 338 would be considered a landslide. Remember, it doesn't matter if he wins FL by 2 pts or 10, only that he wins it.

The EC count is such an odd thing. It's conceivable that a candidate could win each state, and thus the popular vote, by only 1 pt, and still win 100% of the EC. It's a weird system we have.

I think if Obama gets anything over 315 that it is a landslide. He will have swapped many red states and maybe 1-2 that were considered "safe" even a year ago.

Yeah, I think anything over 300 is a landslide in this era. And considering it's a black guy named Barack Obama, it's fucking enormous.

Good point.

It is annoying that it most likely took an economic disaster to bring people to vote for him, but maybe that's a necessary transition for people.

No it was much more then that!!!


When Obama was sitting there being cool and acting like a real leader, people were like wow this guy is Real!!

Nah I think it happened prior to that, though that did solidify his strength with the people. I think he benefited mostly by not making huge mistakes time and time again (like stopping your campaign to "focus" on economy, or choosing an inappropriate VP, or running a completely negative campaign, etc.)

looking historical, this campaign was negative but nothing compared to the Dukakis/Willie Horton Ads made by Karl Rove's master, Lee Atwater.





Atwater and Bush took Dukakis and just murdered the man. Literally he was left with nothing and it was all based on lies and more lies.

It's not like they haven't tried those things with Obama. They've accused him of palling around with TERRORISTS, of hating America, and being a socialist. And not just in ads but repeatedly on the campaign trail.

It simply hasn't worked. I think it's a combination of the state of the nation and of the man himself. But it's refreshing to see a Dem be able to shake off these charges in a way that Gore and Kerry couldn't.

11/04

TOWARD OBAMA
MO: Barely GOP to Exactly Tied

TOWARD MCCAIN
OH: Weak Dem to Barely Dem
VA: Weak Dem to Barely Dem
WV: Weak GOP to Strong GOP



Hmm... McCain seemed to be closing the gap a little in some states, but I don't think it will be enough. Obama's lead in OH and VA has decreased a little, but the consistency makes me think that Obama will win those states.

Here is the final batch of national polls. With 13 polls reporting, Obama has a mean lead of 7.3%. If he indeed wins the popular vote by 7%, he will certainly win the majority of the swing states and be elected President. However, turnout, especially among blacks and younger voters will be crucial. If they fail to show up in the numbers predicted, McCain still has a small chance to win.

- Battleground (Obama +6)
- CBS News (Obama +9)
- Diageo (Obama +5)
- Fox News (Obama +7)
- Gallup (Obama +11)
- IBD (Obama +5)
- Ipsos (Obama +7)
- Marist (Obama +9)
- Rasmussen (Obama +6)
- Research 2000 (Obama +6)
- WSJ/NBC News (Obama +8)
- Washington Post/ABC News (Obama +9)
- Zogby (Obama +7)