Hasn't WVa usually gotten it correct??

No worry. The new SurveyUSA poll has Obama up by 16 (55-39) and by 27 (61-34) among those who have voted.

Even though Obama would still win, polls show Indiana is now out of reach.

There is no doubt a McCain comeback.

However he wins everything else he wants so who cares??


I expect a tight popular vote race 47-53 or so but a very easy electoral college win.


Lets hope this does not happen...

However It would be funny to see...






If McCain wins, my GOD, biggest upset ever. I expect riots...

The IN polls I've seen have Obama +1 or McCain +2, both well within the margin of error. McCain might still win the state but that's hardly out of reach.

Well "out of reach is extreme", however McCain is making a slight comeback so States that were tied will go back to McCain like Missouri and Indiana.


However Obama has Virgina/Ohio/New Mexico locked up and that means he wins!!!

and Florida. well calculated infomercial

The polls are incredibly misleading today.
Pennsylvania is down to a 4% lead.
McCain only leads Louisiana by 3%.
Even South Carolina's poll doesn't feel right.
Something seems really quite off, many states Obama's leading in have had 2-3 percentage points knocked off.

10/31

TOWARD MCCAIN:
MT: Exactly tied to Barely GOP
IN: Barely DEM to Barely GOP


So given the flip-flopping of MT and IN, they're basically tied and will come down to the wire. I'm interested to see how much Ron Paul affects the outcome in MT.
Hmm... as far as I know Obama still has a ~11% lead in PA and McCain leads by ~10% in LA and SC.

Look at the polls below.
The Mason Dixon one.
Just scroll down.
RCP also updated to Leaning Obama from Solid.

Hmm, that's interesting all right. Maybe McCain has made a little headway in PA? Either that or it's an outlier. And that LA one is downright insane. Obama only trailing by 3%? Hmm, this isn't an exact science as it has been said, but it should be interesting to watch over the next few days.

Makes me wonder whether the pollsters are loading the questions.
If McCain is gaining in Pa, then I wonder what the robocalls are putting out.

I think that PA poll is an outliner. The other 7 polls all average out giving in a 9-10 point lead.

11/1

TOWARD MCCAIN
MO: Barely Dem to Barely GOP
MS: Weak GOP to Strong GOP
ND: Exactly Tied to Barely GOP

TOWARD OBAMA:
AZ: Weak GOP to Barely GOP



Hmm, a tad bit interesting. This is more the map that I saw happening at the end of the election, with the exception of North Carolina and Florida. I still think McCain will end up winning North Carolina, but with the huge amount of campaigning and time that Obama has recently put into Florida I'm starting to think that he may have a shot there. Everyone has been campaigning there for him, including the Clinton's and Gore's.

Woohoo! Yay Colorado!

State	Obama	McCain	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	46%	50%	28-Oct	30-Oct	ARG
Arizona	47%	48%	28-Oct	30-Oct	Research 2000
Colorado	52%	45%	28-Oct	30-Oct	ARG
Georgia	44%	47%	28-Oct	30-Oct	Research 2000
Georgia	47%	52%	30-Oct	30-Oct	Rasmussen
Missouri	48%	48%	28-Oct	30-Oct	ARG
North Carolina	45%	38%	27-Oct	30-Oct	Elon U.
North Carolina	47%	45%	28-Oct	30-Oct	Research 2000
North Carolina	48%	48%	29-Oct	29-Oct	Insider Advantage
Pennsylvania	55%	43%	23-Oct	28-Oct	Opinion Research

Still too close to call but like everywhere says if Virginia goes blue, it's probably all over.
Still though, it may be the start of a landslide. And that would be fun.

Same with Ohio that one McCain can't lose.

I don't think it's too close to call, really. Everyone is being too cautious. If you just count the states where he is 10 points ahead, he's got enough to win.

Look at the map above. Let's assume he only wins the dark blue states. That includes all the states Kerry won plus New Mexico and Iowa. Bing! That's all he needs, he's in. He could lose every other state and still win.

He's not going to lose 10+ points in all those states in three days.

The only issue will be how big the win will be.

Obama "only" has 264 EV's from the dark blue states (Kerry states + NM & Iowa = 264), so he does have to get something outside of the states in which he leads 10+ points.

Peace,
Mike

Assuming he gets one of VA, CO or OH, he'll win (or at least tie with NV ... scary). I am almost positive that my home state (CO) will vote for Obama just from what my friends and family is saying. And from all the news I hear from VA I think he will win that state as well. Still not convinced of Ohio. But anyway, unless there have been a lot of people refusing to say that they would vote for Obama just to lie to the polls, it looks like a win for Obama. We'll see shortly.

I agree. Let me clarify, I think this is completely a win for Obama, and that it is just a question of how much of a landslide it will be. I just wanted to point out to Groucho that his math was a little off.

Peace,
Mike

Doh! You're right. I think I was counting Virginia in there in the back of my mind as well.

11/2

TOWARD OBAMA
AR: Strong GOP to Weak GOP

TOWARD MCCAIN
PA: Strong Dem to Weak Dem
NM: Strong Dem to Weak Dem



Gains for both candidates in states that most likely they won't win in the end.

Yikes. McCain's really making in-roads in PA.
He still has a striking chance, the election is only on Tuesday and PA has no early voting.
Also your map's off. Don't know how it could be but it's saying Ohio's barely GOP, New York weak Dem, Texas weak GOP, South Dakota barely GOP, Virginia barely GOP, Florida equal, PA strong Dem, Arkansas strong GOP etc etc

don't you mean NY instead of PA.

and eww at all teh white.

wait mine is different:

Floyd was using Nov 1's map.

NOVEMBER 2

TOWARDS OBAMA
WA - barely DEM to strong DEM
NY - weak DEM to strong DEM
NV - barely DEM to weak DEM
FL - tied to barely DEM
OH - barely GOP to weak DEM
VA - barely GOP to weak DEM
AR - strong GOP to weak GOP

TOWARDS MCCAIN
PA - strong DEM to weak DEM
IN - tied to barely GOP
SD - barely GOP to weak GOP
TX - weak GOP to strong GOP