Indiana is finally going blue!


Indiana, Public Policy Polling 10/18-19: Obama 48%, McCain 46%

That would be great if he could get Indiana. Also the National Poll are turning back towards Obama he is upto 7.2 in the RCP poll.

The conventional wisdom is that the polls tighten up close to the election. But that doesn't seem to be happening.

i think Obama should travel to Florida again, on the day before for a lunchtime rally. and then go to PA for a final "OMG wish me luck bitches" rally.

10/22

TOWARD MCCAIN:
WV: Barely GOP to Weak GOP

TOWARD OBAMA:
SD: Strong GOP to Weak GOP



Hmm, maybe the "Obama won't take your guns" commercials aren't working as well as planned in WV. Seems to be leaning more and more to McCain. Obama's making some headway in SD.

Again, however, I don't understand why McCain would give up CO (only trailing by ~5%) to attack PA where he is trailing ~12% according to the latest polls.

Early voting gives Obama an edge so far in battle ground states--

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/e ... ting_N.htm

Indications of who's voting early, based on election data and interviews:

• Florida: Republicans outnumber Democrats in absentee voting by nearly 3-to-2 among 630,000 voters, according to the state Republican Party. But Democrats are closing that gap in early in-person voting; Monday's opening day produced nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for Democrats among 150,000 voters, says McDonald at George Mason University. President Bush carried the state with 52% in 2004.

• Ohio: In Cuyahoga County, which Democrat John Kerry won by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004, nearly 45,000 people who affiliate with Democrats in primary elections have cast ballots, compared to 10,000 who vote in GOP primaries. In Hamilton County, where Bush won 53% in 2004, three in five early voters are affiliated with Democrats.

• North Carolina: Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1 among 480,000 early voters. Bush won the state in 2004 with 56%.

• Georgia: More than 750,000 people have voted, nearly 25% of the 2004 total. Voters don't register by party, but 36% of early voters are black — up from 22% in 2004.

• Colorado: More than 150,000 people have voted absentee by mail. The party ratio — 81,000 Republicans, 76,000 Democrats — roughly matches overall registration.

• Iowa: Nearly 200,000 people have voted so far, including 100,000 Democrats and 54,000 Republicans. That's a greater ratio than 2004, when 194,000 Democrats and 141,000 Republicans voted early. Bush won Iowa in 2004 by 10,000 votes.

• Nevada: In Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, Democrats outnumber Republicans in early and absentee voting by a 2-to-1 margin — higher than their 60%-40% registration edge and Kerry's 52%-47% margin in 2004.

•New Mexico: More than 230,000 people have voted early or absentee, and Democrats have a 62%-to-38% advantage over Republicans. That's about the same as the Democratic registration edge in a state that Bush won by 6,000 votes in 2004.

21 EC votes to 9, that's why. He could conceivably win without CO. He cannot win without PA. It's a longer shot to turn but it's the only chance he's got.

The problem here is that in order to turn PA, he's going to have dig up the bottom of the barrel and get slimier than he's ever gotten, which is really saying something. It's going to get nasty there. He'll have to appeal to the lowest, basest, most racist part of his base.

If he wins that way, good luck governing the next 4 years. If he loses, then he not only ruins his own reputation forever, but the black eye on the GOP will be felt for years.

But it's all about winning for McCain. Nothing else matters.

if he is able to turn PA to his side, we should worry about OH and other states.

Here's a question for our generic Republican friends out there who respond to Bush's dismall approval ratings by saying that Congress's poll numbers are even lower.

I'm guessing that their implication is that Congress is controlled by Dems, and therefore Dems have a lower approval rating than Bush.

As it is, this is clutching at straws. Congress has both Reps and Dems in it so the low approval is going to both. But IF it's the case that voters dislike Dems less than they dislike Bush, then why does it look like the voters are about to give Dems an ever bigger majority than they already have? If the wingnut claim were true, wouldn't the opposite be the case?

Right, I guess that makes sense for him. For me though, having lived in both states for numerous years, the logical thing would be to go after Colorado if he wanted a better chance at winning either states. But then again this campaign for McCain has been anything but logical (or clean for that matter).

10/23

TOWARD MCCAIN
FL: Barely Dem to Exactly Tied



I guess all that campaigning in Florida may have helped McCain out.

bradley effect here we come

Why wont you guys realize national polls mean nothing, even though they show a big Obama lead; Retuers today has Obama by TWELVE. Its all state by state polls and the electoral map.

Some of todays polls...


Ohio: Obama +12
Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Michigan: Obama +22
Indiana: Obama +10
Minnesota: Obama +19
Pennsylvania: Obama +10
Ohio: Obama +14
Florida: Obama +5
Pennsylvania: Obama +13

It is looking more and more likely Obama will carry Ohio and pennsylvania; if he does this, the election is over.

Here's the Reuters poll. As you can see they do show a 10-pt lead for Obama with 3% MOE. Here are some national polls.

- AP (Obama +1)
- Battleground (Obama +2)
- Diageo (Obama +5)
- Fox News (Obama +9)
- Franklin & Marshall (Obama +5)
- Gallup expanded (Obama +8)
- IBD (Obama +4)
- Rasmussen (Obama +6)
- WaPo/ABC (Obama +11)

It's important to note that we daily post the state map as displayed by electoral-vote.com since it doesn't focus on national polls, but instead uses more state polls. The author of the site explains his reasoning for doing so in this FAQ. He also has access to some polls that you have to pay for that tend to be very accurate. And really, as George Bush proved, you don't need to pay attention to national polls when it's the individual states that matter.

That poll was debunked. It turns out 40% of the responders were evangelicals instead of the more representative 20% that polls usually use.

what you 'n at? popular vote doesnt win you anything. national polls dont mean shit. one could say mccain is up by 20, but he wont win unless the state polls change.

Yeah, one could immediately see that poll is an outlier. Having it grab the headline is a media attempt to portrait this race as close.

Two polls today showed Obama suddenly leading Ohio by double digits. They're probably outliers too, or as 538 put it, the best case scenario. If you look like the average of all the polls, the race hasn't really moved in the last couple of weeks since Obama surged ahead.

That is the only poll that shows that though. Every other poll gives Obama a 7 point lead. I think the AP poll is an outliner.

The AP poll weighted evangelicals as 44% of the population. Do you honestly believe that this is accurate? Most polls weight them as about half that.

So, Iowa and New Mexico are pretty much locks for Obama now.

That means ALL he has to do to win the election is carry only ONE of the following states...

Colorado (even to lean blue)
Florida (even)
Ohio (lean blue)
Virginia (lean blue)
North Carolina (lean blue)
Indiana (lead red)
Missouri (even)

Just one. I think Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado are pretty safe. At this point, I don't see Obama winning with anything less than 300 electoral votes.

It all depends.

If voter turnout does not increase greatly, Obama is in trouble and the Bradely effect will hurt him a lot but he will still win.


However if voter turnout is high (and it appears it is), this will nullify the effect.


There is serious concern if voters do not turn out angry white people will come out in large numbers to make sure a black guy does not become President.

There are millions who will do this and perhaps CNN and Fox don't show this but the international networks show dozens of stories of open racism against Obama.

We get it, you do not want Obama to win. You don't have to bring up every not very probable way he could lose when it seems he is headed to a huge win.

No I said he won't win like way over a month even a month and half ago, when McCain was tied.

I now think Obama has a 99% chance to win.


However the Democrats should be vigilant and make sure they get out their vote or this election can be much closer then any of you want it to be.



Also for the last time I say, what thing can be not what I want them to be...

Not only that, but it has very faulty data.

10/24

TOWARD OBAMA
MT: Barely GOP to Exactly Tied
IN: Barely GOP to Weak Dem
OH: Barely Dem to Weak Dem





Wow, more blues keep coming ...