Since I'm a cynic, I have to agree with Manny, but I think his lead will be more than wide enough to negate that.

On July 23:

Towards McCain:
New Hampshire moves from Strong DEM to Slightly DEM
Ohio moves from Slightly DEM to Leans GOP

Towards Obama:
Colorado moves from Slightly DEM to Leans DEM
Florida moves from Leans GOP to Slightly GOP

Friggin' New Hampshire. What the hell is wrong with them?

Not solid on Ohio either.

Ohio will go back and forth I think, although with the economic situation there, I am not sure why they would vote for a republican.

I think the Rasmussen poll on Ohio is an outlier, as all the other recent polls have Obama ahead.

July 24:

Toward Obama:
Florida moves from slightly GOP to tied.



Obama: 292
McCain: 192
Tied: 54

(270 needed to win)

July 27:

Toward Obama:
Pennsylvania moves from barely DEM to weak DEM

Toward McCain:
Colorado moves from weak DEM to barely DEM
Michigan moves from weak DEM to barely DEM
Minnesota moves from strong DEM to weak DEM
North Dakota moves from tied to barely GOP
South Carolina moves from weak GOP to strong GOP

Imo it looks like Obama will win, but even with all the negatives, McCain is very competitive with Obama.

This means Obama is not doing well with older white voters.

Obama isn't doing notably worse among older white voters compared to, say, middle-aged ones. It's people that grew up after Reagan that skew heavily towards Obama. Many surveys show 30-45 white voters favoring McCain just as much than aged 45+ ones. Older voters are not as Republican as one might think; many of them grew up under a structurally liberal era from Roosevelt to Johnson.

My dad's the only Obamaniac I know over the age of 40.

The media is noting a post-Europe bump for Obama. He leads McCain in the national poll 49-40. For what that's worth, which isn't much.

I am not surprised about South Carolina. It might still be closer than the last couple of elections here though.

I've known plenty on the campaign trail. The staff skewed young though.

...Maybe you just don't know enough people over 40! I'm over 40 and I can name quite a few Obama supporters...

As can I. But then again, I live in Hollywood.

I know plenty of them here in Houston. Though on second thought, only two of them are white.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/image ... argoed.pdf

Looks like Obama still has a substantial lead among Hispanic voters.

Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008.

In addition to their strong support for Obama, Latino voters have moved sharply
into the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing a pro-GOP tide that had
been running among Latinos earlier in the decade. Some 65% of Latino registered
voters now say they identify with or lean to the Democratic Party; compared with
just 26% who identify with or lean to the GOP. This 39 percentage point
Democratic Party identification edge is larger than it has been at any time this
decade; as recently as 2006, the partisan gap was just 21 percentage points

They ain't going back either. You don't diss a whole group of people without repercussions. I'm actually to the right on immigration, but it's not a big electoral issue for me.

I know plenty, all most all my family (my dad's side has some racist tendencies), but then again we're in Massachusetts so take it at that level.

I'm in the only red county in CT. My mom's family has its racist hicks, but it also has the only interracial couples in my whole family. My dad's side is mixed at best on these issues, but my dad certainly isn't (aging hippie who rebelled in the 60s).

Litchfield's not that red, is it?

Think western Pennsylvania or in that league for red-ness.

We talking Pittsburgh or Erie?

So much for the "Hispanics will never support a black candidate" nonsense that was being discussed here during the primaries!

August 1st:

Toward McCain:
Mississippi went from weak GOP to strong GOP
Montana went from weak DEM to barely GOP

Toward Obama:
Florida went from tied to barely DEM
Ohio went from weak GOP to barely GOP

Obama: 316
McCain: 198
Tied: 24