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 What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote? 
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Yes we can call dibs on the mountain guide

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
redspear wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

I am willing to bet a Ban Bet on South Dakota. Obama won the near by states but they were caucuses. I don't think Clinton would even have to campaign that much in South Dakota to win. Oregon is the state that you may be the most right about unlike you I do think she could win that.It is a state that holds a lot of independents who may so that should make it a tight race. You are right she won't be within 5% in NC most likely but that is what she should strive for. It is the largest chunk of delegates with the largest population left so she would need to keep that as close as possible. Oregon and Montana are questionable but I think Montana will be easier for Clinton than Oregon where she will need to campaign hard.

Go right ahead.

The northwest hates Clinton. :zonks:

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Sun Apr 27, 2008 6:58 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
527 people were polled. I don't care who you favor, a poll with that small of a sample can't be indicative of a whole state.


Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:51 pm
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Yes we can call dibs on the mountain guide

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Sam wrote:
527 people were polled. I don't care who you favor, a poll with that small of a sample can't be indicative of a whole state.

Considering South Dakota's population is about the same size as metro Albuquerque, I don't understand your point.

527 people in South Dakota is proportionally equal to about 20,000 people in California.

Look, I've made a living with data analysis in the past. There is no point putting down a poll just because you don't like it. It's not a particularly informative poll, but the issue is the percentage undecided, not the sample size.

That said, there is no indication South Dakota would break for Clinton. Caucus results being illegitimate is an excuse Clinton made up. If you look at how much better Obama polls against McCain than Clinton does in the prairie/mountain states, it would be obvious there is something deeper going on. There is nothing wrong with a giant swath of America disliking your pet candidate. My crew has to deal with the same problem in Appalachia.

Now take a deep breath.

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(hitokiri battousai)


Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:47 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Sam wrote:
527 people were polled. I don't care who you favor, a poll with that small of a sample can't be indicative of a whole state.


Actual, if the sample was taken properly it can.


Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:16 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Ripper wrote:
Sam wrote:
527 people were polled. I don't care who you favor, a poll with that small of a sample can't be indicative of a whole state.


Actual, if the sample was taken properly it can.


Yep.

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Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:29 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Jeff wrote:
Ripper wrote:
Sam wrote:
527 people were polled. I don't care who you favor, a poll with that small of a sample can't be indicative of a whole state.


Actual, if the sample was taken properly it can.


Yep.


Basic Statistics should be required, and you can't pass till you "get" it.


Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:15 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Ripper wrote:
Jeff wrote:
Ripper wrote:
Sam wrote:
527 people were polled. I don't care who you favor, a poll with that small of a sample can't be indicative of a whole state.


Actual, if the sample was taken properly it can.


Yep.


Basic Statistics should be required, and you can't pass till you "get" it.


Heh. Depending on your major my school requires it. Psych majors have to take one version, same for sociology majors. Bio and other science majors have to take the regular math version...

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Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:06 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Angela Merkel wrote:
redspear wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

I am willing to bet a Ban Bet on South Dakota. Obama won the near by states but they were caucuses. I don't think Clinton would even have to campaign that much in South Dakota to win. Oregon is the state that you may be the most right about unlike you I do think she could win that.It is a state that holds a lot of independents who may so that should make it a tight race. You are right she won't be within 5% in NC most likely but that is what she should strive for. It is the largest chunk of delegates with the largest population left so she would need to keep that as close as possible. Oregon and Montana are questionable but I think Montana will be easier for Clinton than Oregon where she will need to campaign hard.

Go right ahead.

The northwest hates Clinton. :zonks:

Well looks like I was right about South Dakota.

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Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:30 pm
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