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 Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday 
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:
Rod wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
Ironic that Obama has blown away two lily-white states today and faces a close contest in Louisiana. Exit polls show Louisiana white voters as quite racist, but that's another matter.

I must have missed the question where they ask voters about their racist tendencies...

Of the voters that stated race was a important factor, blacks went 90% Obama while whites went 70+ for Clinton. It's by far the greatest dichotomy of any contests so far, though Alabama came close.

And what percentage of voters said race was an important factor?

Interesting how you have made a big deal about the Clinton campaign/supporters bringing race up and you do the same now. So white voters who vote for Clinton are racist but Black voters who vote for Obama are not? More importantly if 70% of white voters who list race as an important factor vote for Clinton it means almost 30% must be voting for Obama in large part because they would like to see a black man become president.

Seriously, you probably make the single largest contribution to posting stuff like this that is meant to be nothing else but an easy bait. I'm not denying that there are people out there who will not vote for Obama simply because he's black, in the same way some will not vote for Hillary because she's a woman. However, a white voter voting for Clinton does not make them automatically racist. If you feel going down to that level, though, it is only fair to bring up the other side. If Obama had the same beliefs, same history, same ability to inspire...if his character was exactly the same but he was a white man would you argue that he would lose a huge chunk of his support among African Americans? Are blacks automatically racist for voting for a black man?

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:00 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Just heard CNN mentioned that with 11% reporting, Obama is leading by a small margin in Maine.

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 5:25 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
I just did a calculation on the popular votes, and with actual vote numbers available from 26 out of 32 states so far (Iowa, Nevada, Alaska, and Maine only gave delegate counts, and Michigan and Florida are excluded), the result is:

Obama - 8,090,235
Clinton - 7,889,568

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 6:19 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
44% reporting, Obama is leading 57% to 42%. Another big, and this time unexpected, win.

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 6:39 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
I don't find it that unexpected. In fact, I would have been surprised if Hillary won.


Sun Feb 10, 2008 6:51 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Chris wrote:
I don't find it that unexpected. In fact, I would have been surprised if Hillary won.


The poll had her leading by 20% just recently (and 40% dating back to last year), and the composition of voters in Maine all favor Clinton. The only advantage Obama supposed to have is that it's a caucus, but it's a Sunday, which should've limited the advantage if Hillary's claim that it's harder for her voters to get out and spend two hours debating during workday since they're working-class is true. I thought the best case scenario was Obama squeezing out a 2-5% win, but 15%? That is a surprise.

Now I really doubt Hillary could win Wisconsin, and look like Obama will sweep the rest of Feb.

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:03 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
I dunno, I still don't find it unexpected. Obama has been on the rise of late, and I would think Maine is on the more moderate end of the New England spectrum. Although I guess New Hampshire is more moderate than Maine, and Clinton pulled off a victory there. Maybe the fact that it's a caucus is being underplayed. Obama's supporters are a lot more vocal in their support than Clinton supporters after all. Either way, Obama is looking good for the nomination at this point.


Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:21 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
where can i see up to the minute results?

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:22 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Re-sign Randy! wrote:
where can i see up to the minute results?


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primar ... /state/#ME

http://www.mainedems.org/2008MaineDemoc ... sults.aspx

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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
what does this mean?

if tuesday goes as expected and obama sweeps again, thatll be 7 straight states heading into march...is hillary in as big of trouble as she seems to be in?

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:25 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Chris wrote:
I don't find it that unexpected. In fact, I would have been surprised if Hillary won.


Yeah, I don't find it all that unexpected either, definitely not at this point.

A trend I've noticed is that all of Obama's wins are always "surprising", while all of Clinton's wins are always "expected".

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:32 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
well, people thought the idea of obama claiming all 7 states from sat-tues was a longshot, and labeled maine as the one clinton would most likely win.

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:34 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
I think it means Wisconsin becomes very important, especially since there is a two-week gap between it and March 4th. If Clinton wins there, she could stop Obama's momentum cold and make it back to the situation of pre-Super Tuesday, and her task of defending Ohio and Texas becomes a lot easier.

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Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:35 pm
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Wisconsin poll from yesterday

Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 41%
Unsure 8%
Other 1%

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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Rod wrote:
And what percentage of voters said race was an important factor?

Interesting how you have made a big deal about the Clinton campaign/supporters bringing race up and you do the same now. So white voters who vote for Clinton are racist but Black voters who vote for Obama are not? More importantly if 70% of white voters who list race as an important factor vote for Clinton it means almost 30% must be voting for Obama in large part because they would like to see a black man become president.

Seriously, you probably make the single largest contribution to posting stuff like this that is meant to be nothing else but an easy bait. I'm not denying that there are people out there who will not vote for Obama simply because he's black, in the same way some will not vote for Hillary because she's a woman. However, a white voter voting for Clinton does not make them automatically racist. If you feel going down to that level, though, it is only fair to bring up the other side. If Obama had the same beliefs, same history, same ability to inspire...if his character was exactly the same but he was a white man would you argue that he would lose a huge chunk of his support among African Americans? Are blacks automatically racist for voting for a black man?

You made that inference yourself. I didn't. Because I am a vocal Obama supporter, you assumed my "racist" remark as a pro-Obama slur. Black support for Obama was significantly higher in Louisiana (as a proportion of the remaining gap) than in other contests, so the statement goes both ways. No point in accusing me of playing the race card -- for instance, I fully respect Latino voters', or anybody else's, right to support Clinton. Well, except maybe old people. I'll openly admit to ageism. Ever since that university professor that didn't know how to use a computer. :funny:

Edit: Sorry for my harshness. No intention to offend, and my knack for misleading statements only further proves me utterly unfit for public office. I'm a former census worker, and understand the significant role demographics play in this race. We all wish none of that matters.

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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Clinton has just fired her campaign manager and now plans on positioning herself as the underdog. My how times have changed!


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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
RealClearPolitics has Obama ahead in delegates now even with superdelegates counted, while CNN still has Hillary up by 27, but either way, Obama looks poised to definitely have the lead after Tuesday, and his lead in pledged delegates should be over 100.

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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
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WTF?

As you know, here at TPM we've been really curious what happened up in the Republican caucus in Washington state. For probably the first time in all the primaries and elections I've ever watched, the folks running the election decided to stop counting the votes with 13% of the votes uncounted. And this wasn't a 70-30 blow out, but a tight race where the two top vote getters were separated by less than 2% of the vote. Then this morning, state party chair Luke Esser decided to declare McCain the winner.

Now, when we were watching this last night and I was trying to examine the tea leaves this morning, I was assuming they'd come forward with some story that there was some hang up with the votes or some mechanical issue. Whether it would be true is another matter. But you'd think you'd at least come up with a good story.

But state party chair Luke Esser said that he just thought it was the right thing to do. According to Esser, sometime overnight Esser did some sort of back of the envelope statistical analysis of the the margin of McCain's lead (1.8%) and the number votes left uncounted (13%) and decided that Huckabee didn't have a chance and he'd shut the thing down and declare McCain the winner.

So was that a good idea? Here's Esser's rationale ...

“Maybe it would have been safer if I hadn't said anything. But it was an exciting and historic day for the state and I thought if I was confident about what the outcome would be I should share that with the people who had gone out to their caucuses.”

So it was just such a rollicking good time Esser figured he owed the participants a decision as long as he was confident what the outcome would be.



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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
mdana wrote:
Quote:
WTF?

As you know, here at TPM we've been really curious what happened up in the Republican caucus in Washington state. For probably the first time in all the primaries and elections I've ever watched, the folks running the election decided to stop counting the votes with 13% of the votes uncounted. And this wasn't a 70-30 blow out, but a tight race where the two top vote getters were separated by less than 2% of the vote. Then this morning, state party chair Luke Esser decided to declare McCain the winner.

Now, when we were watching this last night and I was trying to examine the tea leaves this morning, I was assuming they'd come forward with some story that there was some hang up with the votes or some mechanical issue. Whether it would be true is another matter. But you'd think you'd at least come up with a good story.

But state party chair Luke Esser said that he just thought it was the right thing to do. According to Esser, sometime overnight Esser did some sort of back of the envelope statistical analysis of the the margin of McCain's lead (1.8%) and the number votes left uncounted (13%) and decided that Huckabee didn't have a chance and he'd shut the thing down and declare McCain the winner.

So was that a good idea? Here's Esser's rationale ...

“Maybe it would have been safer if I hadn't said anything. But it was an exciting and historic day for the state and I thought if I was confident about what the outcome would be I should share that with the people who had gone out to their caucuses.”

So it was just such a rollicking good time Esser figured he owed the participants a decision as long as he was confident what the outcome would be.



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I wondered the same. Even Paul was still in the race. He won my county with 48% of the caucus vote.


Last edited by Caius on Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:52 am
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Beeblebrox wrote:
Clinton has just fired her campaign manager and now plans on positioning herself as the underdog. My how times have changed!


It worked for Obama. ;)


Many, including yours truly, have been waiting more than four years for Hillary to run and have her chance. She was almost in as of not even a month ago. So, yeah she is now the underdog. I'm hoping this fuels her campaign some.


Mon Feb 11, 2008 2:24 am
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
No Country for Sam wrote:
Beeblebrox wrote:
Clinton has just fired her campaign manager and now plans on positioning herself as the underdog. My how times have changed!


It worked for Obama. ;)


Many, including yours truly, have been waiting more than four years for Hillary to run and have her chance. She was almost in as of not even a month ago. So, yeah she is now the underdog. I'm hoping this fuels her campaign some.


I wasn't being cynical about her new angle. It's more or less true. I just think it's a fascinating story. You have to marvel at just how broad-sided they've been by the Obama-mentum.

Apparently, though, certain senior staff and advisers have been trying to get rid of her campaign manager for awhile now.


Mon Feb 11, 2008 2:59 am
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Quote:
Hate Springs Eternal

By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 11, 2008

In 1956 Adlai Stevenson, running against Dwight Eisenhower, tried to make the political style of his opponent’s vice president, a man by the name of Richard Nixon, an issue. The nation, he warned, was in danger of becoming “a land of slander and scare; the land of sly innuendo, the poison pen, the anonymous phone call and hustling, pushing, shoving; the land of smash and grab and anything to win. This is Nixonland.”

The quote comes from “Nixonland,” a soon-to-be-published political history of the years from 1964 to 1972 written by Rick Perlstein, the author of “Before the Storm.” As Mr. Perlstein shows, Stevenson warned in vain: during those years America did indeed become the land of slander and scare, of the politics of hatred.

And it still is. In fact, these days even the Democratic Party seems to be turning into Nixonland.

The bitterness of the fight for the Democratic nomination is, on the face of it, bizarre. Both candidates still standing are smart and appealing. Both have progressive agendas (although I believe that Hillary Clinton is more serious about achieving universal health care, and that Barack Obama has staked out positions that will undermine his own efforts). Both have broad support among the party’s grass roots and are favorably viewed by Democratic voters.

Supporters of each candidate should have no trouble rallying behind the other if he or she gets the nod.

Why, then, is there so much venom out there?

I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody. I’m not the first to point out that the Obama campaign seems dangerously close to becoming a cult of personality. We’ve already had that from the Bush administration — remember Operation Flight Suit? We really don’t want to go there again.

What’s particularly saddening is the way many Obama supporters seem happy with the application of “Clinton rules” — the term a number of observers use for the way pundits and some news organizations treat any action or statement by the Clintons, no matter how innocuous, as proof of evil intent.

The prime example of Clinton rules in the 1990s was the way the press covered Whitewater. A small, failed land deal became the basis of a multiyear, multimillion-dollar investigation, which never found any evidence of wrongdoing on the Clintons’ part, yet the “scandal” became a symbol of the Clinton administration’s alleged corruption.

During the current campaign, Mrs. Clinton’s entirely reasonable remark that it took L.B.J.’s political courage and skills to bring Martin Luther King Jr.’s dream to fruition was cast as some kind of outrageous denigration of Dr. King.

And the latest prominent example came when David Shuster of MSNBC, after pointing out that Chelsea Clinton was working for her mother’s campaign — as adult children of presidential aspirants often do — asked, “doesn’t it seem like Chelsea’s sort of being pimped out in some weird sort of way?” Mr. Shuster has been suspended, but as the Clinton campaign rightly points out, his remark was part of a broader pattern at the network.

I call it Clinton rules, but it’s a pattern that goes well beyond the Clintons. For example, Al Gore was subjected to Clinton rules during the 2000 campaign: anything he said, and some things he didn’t say (no, he never claimed to have invented the Internet), was held up as proof of his alleged character flaws.

For now, Clinton rules are working in Mr. Obama’s favor. But his supporters should not take comfort in that fact.

For one thing, Mrs. Clinton may yet be the nominee — and if Obama supporters care about anything beyond hero worship, they should want to see her win in November.

For another, if history is any guide, if Mr. Obama wins the nomination, he will quickly find himself being subjected to Clinton rules. Democrats always do.

But most of all, progressives should realize that Nixonland is not the country we want to be. Racism, misogyny and character assassination are all ways of distracting voters from the issues, and people who care about the issues have a shared interest in making the politics of hatred unacceptable.

One of the most hopeful moments of this presidential campaign came last month, when a number of Jewish leaders signed a letter condemning the smear campaign claiming that Mr. Obama was a secret Muslim. It’s a good guess that some of those leaders would prefer that Mr. Obama not become president; nonetheless, they understood that there are principles that matter more than short-term political advantage.

I’d like to see more moments like that, perhaps starting with strong assurances from both Democratic candidates that they respect their opponents and would support them in the general election.

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Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:13 am
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:
Ironic that Obama has blown away two lily-white states today and faces a close contest in Louisiana. Exit polls show Louisiana white voters as quite racist, but that's another matter.


I did not understand your response to Rod. It seems like he made a valid point and called you out on your contradictions. You seem to have no problem stating that white voters are racist, because they support the white nominee. However, no statement about African-American voters who supported the African-American nominee in much higher percentages. I don't think either categories of voters are voting solely on race. You could also make the comment that A-A voters are sexist, if you want to travel down that road, which fortunately you didn't.

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Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:20 am
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
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I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody. I’m not the first to point out that the Obama campaign seems dangerously close to becoming a cult of personality. We’ve already had that from the Bush administration — remember Operation Flight Suit? We really don’t want to go there again.


So you mean to tell me that a partisan Hillary supporter thinks that most of the venom is coming from her opponent's supporters?!! SHOCKING!!

Next you're going to tell me that Rush Limbaugh thinks that it's really the liberals who've lowered the discourse in the country! I guess it must be true!

But remember, we can't trust CORPORATE MEDIA like the NY Times, mdana. Unless, of course, YOU link to it. Then it's okay.

Anything it takes to win. Right?


Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:23 am
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Post Re: Saturday Primary and Chesapeake Tuesday
mdana wrote:
[You could also make the comment that A-A voters are sexist, if you want to travel down that road, which fortunately you didn't.


No, that would be YOU who has descended into such territory, like when you accused me of being sexist for not supporting Hillary. Merkel seems above that. You've proven that you're not.


Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:24 am
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