Obama might not be popular with blue-collar whites, but the GOP overreached in a major way in union states.

true, but Romney will have a better change than any GOP candidate in the North East.

He'd have to somehow dodge the anti-blue collar/anti-poor rhetoric.

It'd have been even more fitting if it was Wario who stayed on top

True, but in those places the argument is going to be simply who will make the economy better.

I think if the economy improves as it is doing right now, Obama's reelection chances will increase greatly.

However since 2008, the economy was supposed to be "greatly recovering" 2-3 times already and the came down.

Well, those people aren't stupid: the shit Kasich, Snyder, Scott and Walker have pulled have only made things *worse*. Walker's got a recall on his ass and he's not the only one getting hit with buyer's remorse. I mean, if unemployment spiked back up to like 10% Obama would be screwed, but other than that...

Well those Republican who got elected in 2010 got elected to be different but not to be radical. They went to far and suffered.


As I said Obama needs to fight hard in 2012 and not assume people will be "sane" and vote for him again.

He needs to fight for the independents because millions of people are not going to be voting in the next election. I mean the millions of black's, Latino's and young people who voted for their first time.

Whole point, I think many of us assumed in 2008, that demographics will make the GOP become irrelevant. The whole point is in the end, the people who vote.

Plus the only State of importance in the Northeast is Ohio.

Also, do not make the assumption that there is not great anger against Obama. Polls have show consistently that a majority of Americans believe Obama should not re-elected. However that still means people would vote for Obama if there is no suitable alternative.

The only issue is the Republicans cannot get a great candidate. For example if it was Obama vs Reagan 2.0, well lol...

What I meant if a GOP candidate can go to Americans and ask the question as effectively as this.



Obama's best chance of victory comes from a weak opponent and that wish is coming true.

(also, I understand Reagan's economic policies that really changed things for the worse overall, but we can say the same thing to Clinton to continuing them, yet both Presidents are well liked as things were so much better. Reagan's cult like status these days is mostly due to his quick wit and one liners that put current politicians to shame.)

Gingrich winning the nomination is almost as good as Cain winning it.

Thank you, Republicans!

Well, Ohio's not the Northeast, it's about as Midwest as it gets. The governor of it has shed public jobs like fur, so the anti-GOP sentiment has been heavily stoked up. (Same shit in WI, MI...Scott in Florida has a 30% approval rating). Now, I agree with you, Zombie Reagan would trounce Obama, but nobody in the race is Reagan. Hell, nobody in the race is McCain.

The Dems made a huge mistake in 1980 thinking Reagan was too far right for the American public, but Reagan, in addition to having charisma, had a basically optimistic message. I think that is what is key here: the GOP are toxic in their vitriol right now. While the general public sentiment IS angry, it does not laser-focus on Obama being the cause of all their problems and most Americans still find Obama personally likable. Positive emotion will outdo negative in most cases, I think. The GOP is in a mean-spirited, reactionary mode that makes them look more focused on destroying Obama than tackling the issues.

You are right Reagan having a positive message.
As much as Jimmy Carter was unpopular, Reagan really took his thunder through his personality and positive message.

"There you Go again"

lol

Its amazing how Carter actually made some sense, but Reagan just made Carter look dumb but simply dismissing him.


It is true that in recent debates we have not seen similar interesting or decisive points, but overall debates still have a big effect.

http://news.yahoo.com/iowa-no-gop-chrys ... 00910.html

We could be in for a long drawn out fight if you go by this article. I do think Paul will win Iowa, but probably not by much. The race will be nuts and several states SC and Florida are up for grabs. I also don't think Haley helps Romney. Haley has been a horrible governor and South Carolinans dislike her, her approval rating is 36%. Obama has a better approval rating. I think we could have 4 candidates still in the race going into March. I can't remember the last time in recent history that happened. The last time it was that close was probably 68, when you had Robert Kennedy, LBJ, Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, and McGovern all still in the race in March. That division hurt the democrats because they couldn't decide on a candidate until the convention (of course RFK getting assassinated really hurt them too. I think he might have won). So, we shall see, if things stay like this I think we shall have a weak nominee coming out of the primaries.

Man, RFK would have destroyed Nixon in '68. Ugh, what a horrible year.

Paul winning Iowa would be like Buchanan in '92, I think.

Or Huckabee winning in 2008. I don't think it will get him far. It would probably just draw the election out longer.

Why do you say that? Huckabee did pretty well in 2008 and could be doing fine if he ran this year and his views aren't exactly outside the mainstream right. Buchanan's an insane, bigoted, drunken racist that even the GOP establishment wouldn't touch the guy with a ten-foot pole.

I was just looking at people who won Iowa but didn't win the nomination. He was an outlier that year, and I am not sure if he could have got the nomination this year. He still does have extreme views, look at his views on gays. It is very similar to Bauchman and Santorum.

Huckabee is a likeable guy, that is why people do not mind him.


Its going to be a drawn out battle, but I see Romney winning.

The Hilary vs Obama battle was epic and grand and sad. The media and so many people just made Obama into Jesus and Hilary into the third anti-Christ, it was insane and stupid.

Well, I wouldn't go that far. There are a lot of people who don't like Romney. I know the Tea Party still don't like him. It could really hurt him in the general election because they could sit home or support a third party candidate.

Rumors about Condi being the VP favorite for the Repubs and Hillary replacing Biden in Obama's 2nd term

I could see Condi vs Hillary in 2016. I'd be very surprised if there wasn't at least one of them as the first female nominee in there and I think they'd have a huge advantage if they are. The worst thing that can happen to either's chances is the other getting nominated

http://news.yahoo.com/newt-gingrich-roc ... 52547.html
Gingrich isn't helping himself with this crap. If he believes that nonsense, then he probably believes in dictatorships. We have separation of powers to prevent one division of government from getting too powerful. Most likely he is just trying to score points which shows him for what he is.

I don't like the way Huckabee moves his mouth when he talks. Plus, I'm not a fan of his show with that live audience.

Agree. It is incredibly short-sighted as well. Inevitably Democrats will win the presidency and Congress again, does he want them to then start removing Republican nominated judges? Does he want Justice Thomas or Alito removed? I don't think he has actually put much thought into the idea and I am not quite sure who he is trying to appeal to. In polls, our Courts, specifically the Supreme Court, always scores much higher in respectability and likeability than does either Congress or the President.

Who the hell is supporting him anyway?

I don't like that he is fat. When you see his face, he does not look all that huge, but when you see the rest of his body, it just becomes gross. He is like a fat chick without tits. Simply gross and awkward looking. Waste of his gastric bypass surgery or whatever procedure he had.

I think it's all about media cycles.

About what will happen Congress in 2012.

It would be a surprise if Congress shifted again.

The thing is that, massive swings in Congress are not that common, but the past few years have been different.

For example the big swings happened in 2010, 2008 and 2006 and then not again since 1994.

The whole point is for a huge swing congress to occur, Obama needs to win in 2012 like he won the 2008 election to create a coattail effect.

Well there is the payroll tax mess
http://news.yahoo.com/house-republicans ... 44659.html

The American People support passing it. I think the poll is like 80-20, and so far they are blaming the republicans for not passing it. The Republicans could lose some seats in the house for this mess. It also helps Obama and gives him ammunition come the election.