I'm watching Palin speak now and it's scary. Where did this woman come from? I feel like the GOP just hired her to be the campaign frontman, err front-woman.

She's with McCain at all these campaign stops now and SHE is the main speaker over McCain. And why not... she's fucking amazing.

According to CNN, New Mexico is leaning McCain now. Anyone have any hard data on that? If so, he needs to win Colorado and Nevada (in addition to Iowa and New Hampshire which I'm pretty confident will go blue now) to win this election. Ohio will go red. AND he needs to maintain leads in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

There's no wiggle room anymore. He NEEDS all those states. He should win with 273 with those states.

I fear Michigan and New Hampshire will be a razor sharp win for either side.


If those Regan Democrats go for McCain, Michigan is in trouble.

I really believe she'll be the first woman president. Probably in 2012.

Part of why she impresses so much is that the older wave of baby boomers have held onto power with a death grip for the last 25 years and finally some of the younger voices are breaking through and they seem very energetic and focused by comparison because finally it's something fresh. This is a generational change election no matter who wins and it's overdue.

It would have been nice if Obama could have picked someone youngish and dynamic too but there just wasn't the options because as i said the older boomers pretty much swamp the system.

Today's poll shows McCain ahead with 48% to Obama's 45%. Palin is paying off, so far.

Until she starts ranting about pro-life.

I can't wait!

Yes although to be fair, whenever Obama was leading by 2 or 3 points, the media always called it a statistical tie. But regardless of that, it's clear the republicans got a good bounce.

To be fair, the media has no clue about statistics. There is no such thing as a statistical tie - just because there is a margin of error, doesn't mean that the candidate isn't leading in the polls.

Also, the swing over the last week has been very significant - from being down by 8 points to up by 3. That's an eleven point swing, and you can hardly attribute that to statistical outliers.

I am glad that Palin is getting all this positive feedback, I just wish she wasn't attached to the McRobot on the ticket.

I know. I have a degree in abstract math. I'm familiar with statistics. I was talking about the spin they put on it publicly, the way the public is told the information.



Obama was up by about 2 or 3 before his convention and is down by 2 or 3 now. There's a rough 5 or 6 point change. If you measure it from the high point of the democrat bounce it looks bigger but that's misleading.

I wish she could speak for herself - she was very complimentary to Obama policies earlier in the year. But now she's being used as a ventriloquist dummy.

I don't think they "spin it" per se - I'm sure they'll be saying the same thing about McCain's lead. It's just that they don't understand statistics. At all.

This is my general problem with the media. Any time I see a report on an issue that I'm familiar with (whether by trade or through general interest), they always get it wrong. What are the chances of them reporting the rest of the stuff right?

Good point. I didn't realize that this was post-convention number. Also, McCain has yet to crack 50%.

50% McCain to 46% Obama in the USA Today/Gallup poll Friday-Sunday. Also, if only likely voters are counted it is 54%-44% McCain.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

I think you want Rasmussen, not Gallop.
Rasmussen leans conservative in their polling and favored GW in 2004.
Today's Rasmussen says it's currently a tie as the first 3-day post Palin speech results are included in the poll.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

That's why she was picked over Romney or any other likely VP at the time. They needed someone to really shine on the ticket. McCain really couldn't really improve on his own numbers, and neither could any of your traditional candidates.

Obama is stuck with a VP that can't gain or loss him anything.

And Obama over the past day or two has unfortunately been falling for the bait. He's been addressing Palin directly, when he really should stay focused on McCain.

Yeah. I'm pretty convinced they had planning it for a while too.

And the timing... planned to the T. Killed any momentum or media extending media coverage of the DNC.


If McCain wins in November, I'm fully prepared to blame the Democrats and not the dim-wits we call Americans. They should know better by now. This is a show. And they have really let their audience down since the primaries were over.

^ I think Biden is going to own the debates. Obama could go either way against McCain.

Dems should hold a small lead through the elections. I also do believe that there is some truth to the idea that the polls are under-representing the younger generation that does not have regular phones anymore so they can't be called.

I feel the exact opposite way.

I think Obama can own McCain easily in the debates.

Palin, on the other hand, is way more charismatic and biting than Biden. Biden is actually a little, uh, dull.

Obama's main focus right now should be to ignore Palin. That is going to be very difficult since McCain/Palin is acting more like Palin/McCain. Which is what the Republicans wanted I'm sure. McCain/Palin made a stop in Michigan the other day, and no one was chanting McCain's name. They were chanting Sarah Palin's. And when has McCain ever had LINES for his rallies? Over 6000 people attended the rally he had in New Mexico yesterday. It only makes sense to have Palin attend rallies with him for a few weeks.

Biden can go after Palin, and should, though if you've noticed, McCain almost never talks about Biden. Which is the right thing to do. It's not McCain vs Biden. No reason to direct attacks or anything at him. But over the past few days Obama has made many comments directed at Palin, more so than McCain. Even using his argument of McCain = Bush, saying Palin is even more like Bush. I don't think that's the best thing to do. 1.) It's Obama vs McCain, not Obama vs Palin. And 2.) She is able to hit back (effectively too, more so than McCain has even), and unlike Obama hitting her (which isn't going to do much because he's not running against her), she is free to attack him back as often as she likes since she's not at the top of the ticket. Obama doesn't need an Obama vs Palin (battle of the newcomers) confrontation or media storm.

^That's because the media is not asking McCain anything about Biden. Obama has said that he is more concenred about what McCain has to say than Palin.

Obama has said he is running against McCain, not Palin. But, over the past few days he has been bringing Palin up just as much if not more.

Obama said this yesterday:



And of course, Palin hit back saying she has vetoed almost half a billion dollars in ear marks, and saying she was surprised Obama went there, saying Obama has requested the equivalent of $1 million in new pork barrel spending for every working day he's been in the U.S Senate, while John McCain has never once asked for an earmark.

Now, I'm not fact checking any of this. Because, to be frank, it doesn't matter to the average American. Notice how Obama's attack was about Palin, directly. No mention of anyone else. While Palin's was defending herself/hitting back, and bringing up her running mate. Obama needs to steer clear of direct attacks like that against the VP, especially when he doesn't even mention McCain (who he is running against).


I get the feeling the DEMS have fallin into this REP trap. Taking part Obama's new/history making image, and applying it to Palin. Which of course then focuses the race of those two. Notice what's wrong there? You only have 1 Presidential candidate in the mix. Not 2.

Gallup now has it:

McCain 49
Obama: 44

That's the highest McCain has ever been in the tracking poll that I've seen. This is more significant than the USA today poll because this is registered voters not likely voters. Likely voters means voters who voted last time but as we all know there will be many new voters this time.

If McCain wins this election, I think the liberals/Democrats/leftists/etc in this country really have to go back to square one and figure out why 50% of this country is still stuck on believing the religious right is better. I really think it is a lack of proper education. We need to re-educate the population so that they don't fall victim to what is fed to them by the GOP and religion. That's the only thing I can think of.

Even if McCain wins, it is highly likely that the Dems will pick up Senate seats, congress seats and governorships and be more powerful than they have been in decades. The presidency is just one aspect of the system, it isn't everything.

It's not like the country would be widely embracing Republicans, it would for the most part be limited to the presidential ticket and that is because, as Democrats often forget, it tends to be decided on personality.

If the Democrats lose, they need to stop nominating lawyers.

Dear god! Re-educate the population? Do you have any idea how asinine this comes across? If you think Democrats are viewed as elitists now, wait till someone higher up seriously starts talking about "re-education".

ahem. See? You just proved my point.

There's a problem there - draft was canceled after Vietnam, so it's going to be tough to find a veteran who voluntarily joined, opposed the war in Iraq and was liked by his buddies.

Republicans struck gold with Vietnam vets against Kerry.

but seriously, if the Republican party were to somehow miraculously separate itself from the religious right, then I wouldn't make such comments. But really, do you think Palin is popular right now because she believes in small government or because she is pro-life, supports banning gay marriage federally, and thinks war against terrerorsists is god's will?