The early result from Nevada is great to track too(in term of party turnouts): http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/e ... statistics. Hillary is not doing as well as Obama in 2012, especially this week, and there are more independent voting than 4 years ago, but people who are identifying themselves as Dem are still outpacing Rep by a good margin. The next three days will be very important.

Some of you entitled twits deserve a Trump presidency to shake you out of your woeful apathy, ambivalence, and ignorance, but the rest of us don't. Y'all don't realize Hitler wasn't Hitler until he was given the reins of governmental power. The South had no idea what they were unleashing when they started the drumbeat for secession.

If you are worried about a Trump victory, and you should be as he is an existential threat to democracy and the world peace created by the post WW II alliances and agreements, volunteer and or send money to Hillary. Elections are not a spectator sport. You can be involved. I have canvassed and phone banked numerous times the last few weeks. I hate it. I am quite shy and don't really like people, but this is freakin' war! What did you do when fascism came to Ameica? Wetting the bed and bitching about it on the Internet ain't cutting it. If you live in a "safe" state get involved in a close battleground state. You can make calls from your home through moveon.org. Locate your local Clinton HQ and see what needs to be done and do it. If not STFU. My grandparents didn't bitch about poor decisions made by FDR, Truman, Gen. MacArthur, or Omar Bradley and they made numerous FUBARs in WW II.


THEY DID WHAT NEEDED TO BE DONE TO WIN. JUST DO IT!

I have been dumbstruck by the shoddy analysis of some these supposed experts when they compare 2016 to 2012 or 2008. They are doing date to date analysis when it should be days out. 2008 the election fell on 11/4 and 2012 on 11/6. It is 2-4 days later this year, this is the latest date an election can fall. Few are adjusting for the difference in dates. It is like comparing a film's box office and not adjusting for extra days, weekend or holiday boosts. I also think the rep/dem break downs are not picking up the difference between Hillary getting 90-95% of self identified Democrats and Trump only getting 80-85% of Republicans. It makes a sizable difference. We shall see.

Nevada SOS has good apples to apples comparison of days out, but I have seen other states that are comparing date to date or at least the analysts are.

In terms of Dems over Repubs. First week 2016, Dems have 29,361 advantage over Repubs. 1st week 2012, dem advantage 29,187. Clark is supposed to be over 30k for today. I think she is in fine shape and better than where Obama was at this point, unless she is losing Independents by a sizable margin which is possible, some states they trend Dem and others Repub, but I am not sure about Nevada. A little anxiety is warranted.

I am not counting Absentee, because I am not sure they are finalized for the first week. They should be, but I have read somewhere that they can still be updated as could the EV.

It was 36k according to 10:30 update, which is 8k more than 2012.


http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/e ... statistics

5. more. days.

I think I've just accepted that I'm going to feel like throwing up continuously until Tuesday is over.

And then maybe more once Tuesday is over if things don't go well.

There is nothing to worry about. If Trump wins, I'll eat a shoe. If he gets elected, and anything too bad happens, I'll eat another shoe.

538 officially has her down to this firewall with tiny leads in Colorado and New Hampshire.

This will be because that may be all you have to eat.

538 is also being VERY conservative in their predictions/methodology this election, much moreso than most of the other aggregates.

Slew of polls with her up in Florida.

PUT. HIM. AWAY!

It sounds like a yuuuuge number of Hispanics are coming out to vote, which of course only helps her. Nevada is looking very good with early voting too. These are both making me feel better about the worrying polls out of New Hampshire today.

Both Clintons are campaigning with the Obamas on Monday night in Philly. Considering PA doesn't have early voting, this is likely the best and most logical place to spend the final night.

Is the Bradley effect in play here?

It is amazing they have to spend it in Pennsylvania at all, tbh.

Everybody always forgets about NH. For all the talk about Florida, if Al Gore had only won in little old New Hampshire...

The raw number in Clark county is up, but the breakdown in term of party identification is less favorable than 4 years ago: so far this week it's 43.1% Dem to 33.7% GOP, while in 2012 it was 46.6% to 32.5%. Clinton is also losing Washoe a little more % wise, and combined it's causing the closeness this week.

Still, in 2012, 36% of the ballots for the 2nd week in Clark came in the last two days, so we could be looking at a 41%-36% breakdown in the end. Combining with the first week figure, it should be enough for Clinton to win the state by about 3%.

New Public Policy Polling polls:

New Hampshire: Clinton 48%, Trump 43%
Nevada: Clinton 48%, Trump 45%
Wisconsin: Clinton 48%, Trump 41%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 44%
North Carolina: Clinton 49%, Trump 47%

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/794562669273554944

Strange. Not so much ahead Clinton is.

She's farther ahead than Obama was against Romney 4 years ago.

The Hispanic vote might be the big difference. They are coming out in big numbers, especially in Florida, Nevada, and Colorado. I feel like they along with the women vote will be the difference.

The early voting numbers out of Florida and Nevada really are insane (in a good way) so far. I'm getting a little bit more optimistic with each passing moment up until Tuesday.

And, needless to say, NOTHING would be sweeter than Trump losing this election because women and Hispanics came out in full force against him, after all the despicable, deplorable shit he has said and done to them.

Nate Silver has been the smartest guy in the room the past two elections. Hillary is the favorite to win but it much closer than most expected.

Problem with this time of year, polling wise, is everybody and their mother seems to have a poll. For 90% of this campaign, Trump has trailed and trailed big. Over a handful of occasions, notably post convention and around the period of 9/11 through the 1st debate, Trump's poll numbers rise to near but never over - Clintons. And then of course, some big event happens and Clinton's large support resurfaces, i.e. the convention or debates. You just have to wonder how much support truly does change or waffle throughout these things.

I just want to repeat how much I will be missing Barack Obama. The man radiates a decency that is sorely, sorely missing this go round.

An incredible record was broken tonight in Clark County, Nevada thanks to many polling sites extending voting hours until 10PM or later; over 57,000 votes at last count.

Clark County accounts for about 70% of Nevada's population, and Hispanics represent 30% of that. Obama won the county by 15% in 2012; 19% in 2008.

Friday # from Nevada looks promising again, and the polls in general are stabilizing. Adding the fact that late deciders had generally broken away from Trump in the primaries, I'm definitely feeling better at the moment. Thinking a 4 point popular vote win.

I think Sam Wang had an amazing 2012 election getting the electoral all right and almost dead on the money popular vote. Plus read the 2016 primaries excellently compared to Silver's disaster and was saying the cake is baked in GOP and Democratic primaries relatively early. So that he's saying 99% Hillary and that the cake is baked again is encouraging