One week to go; time to put forward out final prediction.

It will be a decisive victory for Obama, but not quite a "blow-out".

Something like 320-218 for the EV. And 53-47 in the popular vote.

Voted "Obama Strong".

Almost voted "Obama Blowout", but I still think some of the swing states that may even have Obama up a few points could very well go McCain. I'm basing this off the primaries and how late deciders broke for Clinton over Obama. Could be wrong of course, but I'm playing it "safe".

LMA Xia, "Obama Massacre."


I went with Obama Narrow for two reasons: (1) I don't like to have over-ambitious expectations; a win is a win, and its harder than it looks with the way electoral college breaks down by state. (2) Having unexpectedly high hopes inevitably leads to dissappointment. Again, a win is a win; I'm just psyched we're going to have a Dem back in the oval office.

I also grossly distrust polls and think a lot can happen even in a week. Many people who are undecided will likely still, when push comes to shove, flick the lever along party lines. Its hard to trump your own precedence. Even I have only done it three times, and of those, only one that was for a bigger position. Everyone says they might jump teams, but I still don't see it really happening in as massive numbers as people with high expectations have now.

I voted Obama strong, although I think it's really going to be somewhere between narrow and strong.

Went Obama strong if there's no major change he has 286 locked up, I think he takes Florida, Ohio, NC, or a combination of smaller (Missouri+Nevada) to put him just over 300.

I went all out. Obama full on, rape your ass victory!

Is that your official "fill-in-your-own-word" victory?


No one else has yet voted for Obama Narrow? I can't possibly believe that I am the most pessimistic person in these forums. I'm sure that he will win, and I am psyched for it, but I do not think its going to be the landslide everyone else seems to think. That's incumbent level numbers (ina good economy, no wars, and no sex scandals), if even. What cool-aide are you all sucking down?

Obama strong (300-335)

I went with Obama strong. I'm paranoid about jinxing him, though.

I went for Obama blowout. The wheels have fallen off the Mcain bus and things keep getting worse. I'd say a blowout is likely and a massacre is slightly possible.

'Obama strong' is a lock.

Obama 290-320.

It's the economy, stupid! It makes Obama look like a strong reformer and McCain a wish-washy flipflopper.

According to Electoral Vote dot com, Barack Obama currently has 260 electoral points within the "Strong Dem" category. This means he has 260 points all from states in which he leads by 10% or more. As I see it, these are all safe dem states, and Obama is essentially guaranteed 260 electoral votes come election night.

A few points to note about all the "Strong Dem" states:
- Obama leads by 10% or more (in some cases, much more) in all of these states. By extension, this means his lead is outside the margin of error for practically all polls.
- Obama is over the magic 50% threshold in ALL of these states, the only exception being Rhode Island (48% Obama vs. 26% McCain). This means Obama is not only leading by 10% or more in these states, but he's also secure in the sense that all undecideds could go McCain's way, and Obama would still be safe.

These "Strong Dem" states according to Electoral Vote.com are:

State (EV): Lead
----------------
D.C. (3): +69
Hawaii (4): +41
New York (31): +36
Illinois (21): +26
Vermont (3): +24
Rhode Island (4): +22
California (55): +21
Connecticut (7): +21
Maryland (10): +19
Massachusetts (12): +19
New Jersey (15): +19
Michigan (17): +18
Delaware (3): +16
Maine (4): +16
Washington (11): +15
Oregon (7): +14
Iowa (7): +11
Minnesota (10): +11
Pennsylvania (21): +11
Wisonsin (10): +11
New Mexico (5): +10
---------------------------
Total: 260 Electoral Votes (21 States)

FiveThirtyEight.com, through it's more complex analysis, agrees with ElectoralVote.com, and calls all of the above states "Safe DEM" states, plus adds one extra: Virginia (13).

So, under FireThirtyEight.com, Obama is safe with 273 electoral votes (22 states).

As far as I'm concerned, at the current state of polling, Obama is guaranteed to win. His "safe win" states either gives him 260 electoral votes or 273 electoral votes, from the above 2 sources. So, I don't think this is a question of who will win, but by how much Obama will win.

Furthermore, the above doesn't even take into account the other 115 Electoral Votes from states in which Obama is leading on ElectoralVote.com.

According to ElectoralVote.com, if Obama were to win all states in which he is leading, Obama would win 375 Electoral Votes on election day.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, through their more complex analysis in which they simulate all possible turnouts and such, the model projects Obama to win 351 Electoral Votes.

Soo...

To recap (and this is my opinion based on the polling):

The minimum amount of electoral votes Obama can win on election day: 260-273

The maximum (or a reasonable "best turnout") for Obama would be: 351-375

And there is still more. While Obama's lead may fluctuate moreso in the national polls, Obama just seems to keep improving and improving at the state level. And so, his position could be even better come election day. There are states which are usually deep red that are currently tied or only leaning McCain slightly, including McCain's home state (Arizona)!

So, taking that into account, and all of the polling into account, and also taking into account that Obama leads considerably in most states in early voting...

My Prediction is: "Obama blowout (336-365)"

Peace,
Mike

I'm going for a massacre. Realistically, I'd say a blowout.

I'm on the fence between categories, since I suspect it will end up around 350-ish.


So excited!!!

I say Obama strong right now. So is somebody going to confess to the McCain blowout. I am just curious who thinks that. I could see somebody saying McCain narrow but blowout?

Narrow win by McCain - - the Republicans have the voting technology all locked up...

Massacre! Obama takes this 375-163

Obama wins in these states-

The entire West coast (HI, WA, OR, NV, & CA) 82 electoral votes

Two western (CO & NM) 14 electoral votes

Five Plains/Heartland (MN,WI, IA, MO, & IL) 59 electoral votes

Three industry (MI, IN, OH) 48 electoral votes

The entire Northeast (PA, NY, NJ, MA,MD, DC, CT, DE, RI, VT, NH, & ME) 113 electoral votes

and Three southern (VA, NC, & FL) 55 electoral votes

He will also threaten to win Georgia, West Virginia, and Montana but will lose by <2%

He will not lose any of the McCain states by more than 7% with most under 4%

Voter turnout will be around 125-130 Million with Obama winning the Popular vote 55%-45%

Democrats pick up 10 seats in the Senate and 60 in the House

We will know the Winner and President Elect as early as 8pm EST but no later than 10pm EST.

McCain will give a bitter consession speech and will not be graceful.

Obama will give one of the best victory speeches of all time.

I also went with an Obama Strong victory, maybe I should have gone higher but it seems like McCain might get a couple or more extra states to make it seem respectable.

Blowout.

Obama is not going to win with anything less than 311 electoral votes (Penns, OH, NV, NM, CO, VA)

I think he can pick up a few more states. Indiana, NC, MO, and Florida are all toss-ups.

mccain by a little

While I may be jinxing him, I really think it will be an Obama blowout or stronger.

Considering high turnout in favour of the democrats (more blacks, youth), I expect Obama will carry all of those swing states apart from Missouri and Indiana.


I think Flordia could suprise for McCain, do not underestimate the seniors.


However the massive youth/black vote will just help him in North Carolina and Virgina.

Looks like it should just TOUCH blowout.