It's time for way too early and almost certain to be wrong takes.

Dems 2028 needs to be Wes Moore - Josh Shapiro with Bernie Sanders style messaging. No more celebrities.

Repubs likely look at JD Vance + Vivek.

Never underestimate the ability of Americans to swing hard the other direction. This new administration will need George W Bush post 9/11 or Obama level popularity to not be the underdog

Still think Ron Desantis would be best choice but don’t know if being out of the spotlight when his term is up will hurt his name recognition

GOP: JD Vance + Donald Trump Jr
Dem: Taylor Swift + AOC

Celebrities are fine. Trump ran with Hulk Hogan, Elon, etc. and it worked out fine. I don’t think celebrity support made Dems lose the election. The only celeb who could’ve meaningfully helped Dems was T Swift but all she did was like one social post

Probably Vance for Republicans

My take on Democrat primaries it's all about getting the black voter, that's why Hillary and Biden won since the Clintons were popular with them and Biden was Obama's VP. Using this logic black community has a complicated history with jews as they associated them with being their landlords and taking over the mantle of slave owners in 1800s and 1900s, so I don't think they vote for Shapiro, even before considering if progressives still have backlash over his Israel views, on the other hand he's a generationally good speech giver so he could just be a force of nature. Walz has the name recognition through Harris and Floyd but I think guys like him and Buttigieg aren't "masculine" enough for black voter, they like the white guys who seem like they fuck like Bill Clinton. Wes Moore is an option as black male but governor from Maryland could just make him the less known "1-2%" guy on the end of the stage and it's hard to get out of it once there. Newsom is the opposite of Walz where he has more masculinity and has probably re-enacted the American Psycho sex scene, but it depends on whether governor of California is enough name recognition for black voter to care about white politician, plus it would be wild if they nominated another person from California after Harris failed with middle of the country appeal. Likewise for Whitmer and AOC being 2nd female in a row seems unlikely.

Pick: Wes Moore, he has enough buzz beforehand to not just be one of the other guys in the primary, and is able to sell more moderate stance than Harris.

General election winner: Moore, Democrats get excited to vote after four more years of Trump.

IMO the R nominee really depends on whether Trump dies in office or not, because if Vance is president for some time his odds would likely decrease as Trumpism will decline w/o Trump. But if Trump does a full term, Vance will likely be the nominee because there isn’t too many other candidates on deck. The only decent moderate candidates are Kemp and Youngkin, and MAGA will coalesce around whoever Trump tells them to (so likely Vance).

As for the Dems, it’s wide open. There’s no clear front runner like Biden 2020 or Hilary 2016. It will probably be the most open since 2004. I think Harris will run again, and she’ll probably poll well early, but down the stretch I think she’ll falter. Shapiro will also poll well, but the murder case will sink him as well. I don’t think many progressives will run (no Warren, AOC, or Bernie). Others who will run but won’t make a large impact are Hochul, Newsom, Beshear, Adams (lol) and others who have little national profile right now. I think Walz won’t run. Some wildcards (might join in but ultimately won’t win) are The Rock, Michelle Obama, and Mark Cuban. I think Obama would do alright if she had a good campaign, but she mainly appeals to woman voters and has very limited sway with men. Some dark horses are Wes Moore, Warnock/Ossoff (I think one of them will run), and Allred (both of them wouldn’t run). I think the nominee will probably come from the people who aren’t front runners but are in the 2nd tier: Whitmer, Buttigieg, Pritzker (he would have to be supplant Newsom to be the anti-Trump voice), and that’s it. Others who might run but would do jackshit including Sinema, Gallego, Kelly, and basically anyone else.

It’s so far away to even predict as if everything will be normal by then

The Rock vs Hulk Hogan

IMO the R nominee really depends on whether Trump dies in office or not, because if Vance is president for some time his odds would likely decrease as Trumpism will decline w/o Trump. But if Trump does a full term, Vance will likely be the nominee because there isn’t too many other candidates on deck. The only decent moderate candidates are Kemp and Youngkin, and MAGA will coalesce around whoever Trump tells them to (so likely Vance).

As for the Dems, it’s wide open. There’s no clear front runner like Biden 2020 or Hilary 2016. It will probably be the most open since 2004. I think Harris will run again, and she’ll probably poll well early, but down the stretch I think she’ll falter. Shapiro will also poll well, but the murder case will sink him as well. I don’t think many progressives will run (no Warren, AOC, or Bernie). Others who will run but won’t make a large impact are Hochul, Newsom, Beshear, Adams (lol) and others who have little national profile right now. I think Walz won’t run. Some wildcards (might join in but ultimately won’t win) are The Rock, Michelle Obama, and Mark Cuban. I think Obama would do alright if she had a good campaign, but she mainly appeals to woman voters and has very limited sway with men. Some dark horses are Wes Moore, Warnock/Ossoff (I think one of them will run), and Allred (both of them wouldn’t run). I think the nominee will probably come from the people who aren’t front runners but are in the 2nd tier: Whitmer, Buttigieg, Pritzker (he would have to be supplant Newsom to be the anti-Trump voice), and that’s it. Others who might run but would do jackshit including Sinema, Gallego, Kelly, and basically anyone else.

Trump is not dying of old age in the next 4 years

There is a very high chance he does die of old age and I think it will be a shock to people if it happens

If Biden was inaugurated at the same age and didn’t die Trump isn’t unless someone kills him

Best choice for Democrats in 2028 is Josh Shapiro. Hands down.

I mean by odds at some point a president is going to get cancer and have it be terminal in their term especially when they're old ones like this, but overall I don't see much reason to think Trump can't make it to 82. If Biden had won 2nd term, I think his chances of not making it would've been pretty legitimate.

Trump will cause a world war just before he is meant to step down, therefore staying in power for a third term.

I think there is a real chance he puts one of his sons in power before the end of this reign. I mean he tried to stay in power illegally last time

Yeah, lol, transfer of power 2029 is going to be an event.

JB Pritzker with fat guy you could have a beer with him vibes could work to appeal to rust belt midwest people.

He doesn’t like them though.

Trump is probably getting bi-weekly full-body MRI scans and sleeps with a heart rate monitor. He's not going to randomly die in the next four years.

My father in law has dementia. And so I see it on a regular basis. I also use to be a personal care attendant in my college days so I have seen first hand how the media often misunderstands mental disorders and even more so portrays incorrectly. Trump has dementia. There is a possibility he will die in the next few years or will be mentally unable to perform the job

Amazing if he lives to like 92

His dementia is clearly not as bad as Biden’s and Biden is still alive.

Intermittent fasting seems to have health benefits, but yeah, his abundance of fast food meals just can't be good. And he just looks like he doesn't exercise either.

I hope the 2028 democratic candidate is a lefty like AOC and not some corporate neoliberal like Shapiro or Newsom.

Dems need to find the male AOC