Current prediction



Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Georgia/Arizona/Nevada over 2 points so it's pretty clear win but not full red wedding - around level of Obama over Romney 2012.

Closer than expected states: Virginia and New Mexico (4-5 pts) Minnesota (2-3 pts), New Hampshire (1-2 pts)

After the shocking Iowa Poll I am predicting a surprise win for Harris in either Ohio, Iowa, or Florida while sweeping the battleground states. That or a Harris win on only the Blue Wall plus Nebraska. I am starting to feel nervously optimistic about the election for the first time. But this Iowa poll which has been the most accurate tipping point poll since 2008 (even in years like 2016, 2020, and 2022 when everyone else was wrong) has me thinking a Harris landslide is very possible

I don’t think anyone is afraid to say they’re voting for Harris.

Well it can't be ruled out after that poll, but the party's polls would have to be a disaster on both sides for it to be a Harris wins Iowa/Democrat landslide scenario. It's clear they think New Hampshire is more almost in play than Iowa (Biden won NH by 7, Trump won Iowa by 8) by how there's been rallies there such as I saw Vance went there this week and there was a Harris rally a few months ago along with Democrats sending some people like Bill Clinton an Biden, it would be Democrats by over 15 if they won Iowa. My favorite Democrat insider Mark Halperin since I saw him get the scoop on Biden dropping out a few days ahead of time also released a video a few days ago saying they're pessimistic on Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina and those would be 5 point wins for Harris if she came close in Iowa.

Mark Halperin also said Biden wouldn’t endorse Kamala after dropping out, so maybe slow your roll on treating a disgraced journalist and sexual harasser who works for Newsmax like they know everything.

Your takes are completely ridiculous. Good luck continuing to underestimate women this election.

I don't have a lot of faith in the polling. Based on polling, it would appear this is an extremely close election. I really hope it's not that close. I could certainly be wrong, but it seems to me there are a lot more conservatives willing to vote for Harris because of the abortion issue, Trump's ridiculous behavior, old age, and felony convictions, than there are liberals voting for Trump for whatever reason.

Sure, but that isn't what is being said. They think polls have not fully picked up how large there women vote is going to tilt Harris's way and its resulting in underestimated polling. The same thing happened with Trump and men in 2016.

If Harris wins it’s probably because of abortion but the opposite is also true that if Trump wins it’s most likely cause Harris/Walz didn’t connect with men as much as Biden and Trump made a move on Rogan/Kill Tony demo and black men who love masculinity were more influenced by gender than race.

Vance has been doing everything right since his debate in early October to win this election for Trump. The problem is Trump is a horrible general election candidate

“My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over. Our Constitution works; our great Republic is a Government of laws and not of men. Here the people rule.”

can’t wait for Tuesday night

Vance was a mega-flop who totally righted his ship and debate night. Walz was good too so it was not an ass-kicking ala Kamala owning DT or a complete kamikaze performance ala Biden in June.

Vance will definitely be someone to watch in 2028, as will Kamala if she loses in 2024.

There are a lot of dynamics here. A lot. I'll elaborate after the election, but this is a very, very unique race and anyone trying to oversimplify it is probably missing something, except the people noting that women all over USA are fucking pissed about abortion and state governments going crazy with their bans.

The more Trumpian-leaning members like Shack think that Trump will win and the more Left-leaning members like Darth think that Harris will win. Who'da thunk?!

It really could go either way.

I suppose I could see a scenario where the heartland and swing states fully reject a woman leader (it's America, after all) and Trump has a surprise victory. I'm finding it harder to see a Harris sweep. She will be popular in the safe states but how does she appeal to those that find it impossible to elect a female? Unfortunately it is stacked against her, I'd say.

I will be more surprised if Harris wins than if Trump wins.

This was pretty great

If the Republicans win after P'nut the squirrel and they're eating dogs and cats memes, will the left counter by reviving the animal activists on their side? For some reason they forgot to try to make the Republicans look heartless by choosing capitalism over animal treatment in this era.

It'll definitely be a big issue for a future generation, but the ones we have now are too addicted to meat. Principles be damned, there's no way I'll ever vote against steak.

At this point I would say

General polls: Slight advantage Trump
Early voting trend: Advantage Trump
Gold level predictors: Advantage Harris

Wry different strategies for Trump and Harris going down the final stretch. Trump is playing hard to the base and trying to rally the base to a big turnout on Election Day. This actually might work, but a lot of data shows this strategy has a ceiling. The hope, which might wind up true is that even more hidden vote comes out for Trump amongst the low-info voter which Trump excels with and gains enough with young men and minorities that he can push his way to victory on a mix of anti-incumbent (which has been a popular strategy for over a decade now and especially in the last few cycles with democracies) and base loyalty. Harris meanwhile is running a persuasive campaign that aims to persuade Republicans on the fence from voting for her and leaving Trump. The Democrats have run their most conservative campaign (conservative in terms of ideology) in decades. The fear here is that she might alienate progressives who while never a base for her, are a huge voting block for Democrats. The hope here is that fear of Trump (which is a valid fear) is enough to keep them in check while running on a neoconservative platform.

I think Harris wins as again, Trump appears to have a ceiling. Moreover, this biggest voting block since 2022 has been women trying to bring back their medical protections and freedoms taken away from them and their daughters and granddaughters in the Dobbs decision.

If Trump wins it’s almost wholly due to the economy

I would agree. The fickle low-info voter who thinks Trump will magically bring back the economy that they misremember from 2019 will come back and that the end of high inflation (which already happened) means prices will revert back to 2019 prices

If Trump wins it because Kamala is a bad candidate more so than he is a good candidate.

Kamala had a knock out debate and has ran a near flawless campaign. She is a vanilla candidate that doesn’t really head a movement like Obama 08 or Trump 16, but it will have nothing in her being a bad candidate. You could argue she wasn’t much of a game changer, but she certainly hasn’t been bad. Again, Trump is benefiting from party loyalty being stronger with the GOP and if you look at democracies across the globe right now, incumbents are losing. It’s really that simple.

The vast majority of Trump Supporters think he is the best candidate ever,

If Trump had these exact same economic numbers he, and therefore his supporters, would call it the greatest economy ever.

I’ll save it for the Kamala Harris what went wrong thread if he wins.