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 The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back 
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Colorado and New Hampshire senate seats are outside the MOE for Dems and Florida is outside the MOE for Republicans but Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin are all still tossups for sure with no candidate leading by more than 3%. Election night will be a nail biter


Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:56 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Imo

Likely Democrat: Colorado, New Hampshire, Washington
Lean Democrat: Arizona, Pennsylvania
Toss-up: Nevada, Georgia
Lean Republican: Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina
Likely Republican: Florida, Utah

I think Ohio/Wisconsin/North Carolina are more like halfway between lean and likely and Arizona and Pennsylvania are halfway between toss-up and lean though.

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Sun Sep 18, 2022 3:41 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Are Utah and Washington not partisan seats?

I think Georgia and Nevada are less tossups than Wisconsin


Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:11 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
zwackerm wrote:
Are Utah and Washington not partisan seats?

I think Georgia and Nevada are less tossups than Wisconsin


Trafalgar had a wtf Democrats +3 poll for Washington, and there's another PPP that's only 9, so I threw it on in the same category as a state like Florida

Utah is Republican vs that Evan McMullin guy as independent, Democrats didn't nominate anyone and just endorsed him

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Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:45 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
I think Republicans will squeak Arizona while Democrats squeak Pennsylvania


Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:18 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
The continued outrage over Martha's Vineyard and the other places the illegals have been sent is one of the funniest recent developments in politics.


Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:40 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Biden secretly sends 70 flights of immigrants in the middle of the night to Florida - no comment

DeSantis sends 50 people to rich person island full of hotels and empty mansions, who want nothing to do with them, stuff them in a church and have the National Guard called in to take them away to a military base within a day - DeSantis is Hitler

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Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:14 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Very confused by the Martha Vineyard thing. My understanding is that they were in San Antonio at the time. The stuff Abbott did at least made sense.

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Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:33 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
zwackerm wrote:
Are Utah and Washington not partisan seats?

I think Georgia and Nevada are less tossups than Wisconsin


I would have put Georgia lean Republican but it looks like it's one of the rare states Democrats outdo polls in and the celebs like Herschel Walker and Dr Oz feel like wild cards to me.

Otoh I saw some polls recently that would make me call Nevada lean Republican now.

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Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:06 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Lake is pulling away from Hobbs and doing very well in AZ gubernatorial polling, up 4 points in the most recent poll.

I fail to see how Lake does so well and wins and Masters also loses to Kelly in a midterm year.


Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:29 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Current prices on predictit for senate (roughly reflects betters predicted % of winning)

Colorado 86-13 Democrats
New Hampshire - 73-29 Democrats
Pennsylvania - 73-29 Democrats
Arizona - 62-39 Democrats
Georgia - 60-42 Democrats
Nevada - 52-49 Democrats
Wisconsin - 61-40 Republicans
North Carolina - 70-30 Republicans
Ohio - 73-28 Republican
Florida - 89-13 Republican


Current prices

Colorado 83-17 Democrats (+3 R)
New Hampshire 81-19 Democrats (+8 D)
Arizona 68-35 Democrats (+6 D)
Pennsylvania 66-36 Democrats (+7 R)
Georgia 52-51 Republicans (+8 R)
Nevada 57-45 Republicans (+5 R)
Wisconsin 72-32 Republicans (+11 R)
North Carolina 73-27 Republicans (+3 R)
Ohio 75-26 Republicans (+2 R)
Florida 88-14 Republicans (+1 D)

Utah and Washington are 88-89

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Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:08 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
I feel like AZ is way more likely to go Republican than Pennsylvania as Lake is a very popular gubernatorial nominee and Mastriano is not, and turnout for her will help Masters.


Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:36 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
So someone blew up the Nord Stream pipeline and nobody can figure out who? Russia could have just turned it off, but I guess they could have done it and used this to not look as much like the bad guys. Poland just opened a new pipeline so they could have done it to benefit (although it's now in danger of being taken out too in retaliation?)

Also Biden said this a while back


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Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:42 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Stay safe, DIB! Looks like this hurricane is going make landfall as a potential cat 4 and is projected to go right over Orlando as either a cat 1/2.

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Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:50 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Corpse wrote:
Stay safe, DIB! Looks like this hurricane is going make landfall as a potential cat 4 and is projected to go right over Orlando as either a cat 1/2.


Thanks!

Will be my fourth or fifth hurricane since moving here, I lost count. It happens frequently, but having grown up in the Midwest it really isn’t any more than a bad thunderstorm living so far inland. Tornados are much scarier.

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Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:02 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back

I thought Russian skywalking was the most dangerous videos I've seen...

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Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:16 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Not really surprised...

Seeing the early photos of homes almost completely underwater, or up to the second floor in two(+) story homes is always frightening. The wind can be damaging enough, but the flooding is so much worse. And flood insurance (separate from home insurance) is ridiculously expensive. Better to have it than not when at risk, obviously, but still.

My house is barely inside a flood zone (never flooded to my knowledge at least) and my flood insurance premium is a ridiculous $1270/year (recently shot up due to new policies...). I can't imagine what it is for homes in the worst parts of flood zones, especially in a flood-prone state like Florida.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:14 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Looks like Georgia will decide the balance of the senate again unless Masters makes more inroads in Arizona, since Nevada is looking more and more tilt R


Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:43 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Alex Jonás just got toasted. Hopefully more consequences for conspiracy theorists who are purposefully misleading the general population for profit.


He messed up on the Sandy Hook stuff for sure


Omg.


Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:55 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:

I thought Russian skywalking was the most dangerous videos I've seen...


“I can’t believe I have to say this…don’t walk into the cage and throw rocks at the lions.”


Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:57 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Chippy wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Chippy knows nothing about me lol. I live in an area that is 70% Democrat and have always been in the arts music and drama community which is like 80-90% Democrat. Echo chamber my ass. Before the 2016 election actually happened I didn’t know a single Trump supporter and was shocked at how many votes he got cuz I was so cutoff from conservative communities.

Liberals live mostly in densely populated bubbles and make up most of the media, Republicans in Democrat areas fear social ostracism if they express their views and keep quiet. it’s far easier for liberals to just choose not to expose themselves to right wing ideas than Vice versa . Even in rural Kentucky they still have MSNBC.

“You just live in an echo chamber” is a terrible argument and unfalsifiable .

I’ve also been relatively conservative the entirety of the time I’ve posted here. I have not changed Chippy.


Literally every major city in the US has more Republicans than every single rural area.


Seriously fuck off if you’re going to say this shit while telling them to live in reality. Unless you want to explain how they should identify all the other Republicans and Democrats on the street.


Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:21 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Corpse wrote:
Not really surprised...

Seeing the early photos of homes almost completely underwater, or up to the second floor in two(+) story homes is always frightening. The wind can be damaging enough, but the flooding is so much worse. And flood insurance (separate from home insurance) is ridiculously expensive. Better to have it than not when at risk, obviously, but still.

My house is barely inside a flood zone (never flooded to my knowledge at least) and my flood insurance premium is a ridiculous $1270/year (recently shot up due to new policies...). I can't imagine what it is for homes in the worst parts of flood zones, especially in a flood-prone state like Florida.


It would be lovely if Mar a Lago floods. Just saying.


Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:25 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Chippy wrote:
Because he's not left wing. That's what makes me more left wing.

But since y'all think CNN is left biased, your worldview on left/right wing isn't as tuned in as you think.


It’s all relative and subjective anyway. And it’s simplistic to consider it one dimensional. At least if your talking politics.


Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:36 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Chippy wrote:
Because he's not left wing. That's what makes me more left wing.

But since y'all think CNN is left biased, your worldview on left/right wing isn't as tuned in as you think.


It’s all relative and subjective anyway. And it’s simplistic to consider it one dimensional. At least if your talking politics.


Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:38 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Chippy wrote:
See, Shack, you're playing sports with your politics. Leftists aren't on the same "team" as Democrats. A ton of Democrats are extremely moderate. Ditto Republicans. They're liberal on some things, conservative on others, etc etc. Typically Dems are liberal with things like human rights, while Republicans don't really care about human rights (besides apparently taxing rich people?).

Maybe some day you'll start to see politics in a correct spectrum.


There’s no correct spectrum, it’s literally all meaningless nonsense. Both sides are essentially indistinguishable in every significant way. I honestly can’t tell which is further “right” or “left” since their differences are so inconsequential. It’s like asking what’s older, something from 1.05-1.30 million years ago or 1.15-1.20 million years ago. I’m being extremely generous actually. I mean, by any rational standard, “modern” (2022 common time) “liberalism” is extremely conservative. Communism has to be considered conservative, technically and functionally following the fall of the Soviet Union. And if communists are conservative for that legacy, than certainly people far to their right must be conservative. The only way to say they are not conservative is to say that AOC etc. represent something else entirely. But that’s difficult to reconcile with her statements. Maybe they are feminists, but feminism isn’t a central or fundamental tenet of communism. So, it doesn’t really matter if their priorities remain with an agenda to the right of the Soviets and even modern North Korea or Cuba.


Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:00 am
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