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 The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back 
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Kansas might surprise you

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:00 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Kansas might surprise you


There is a difference between voting for abortion alone and voting for it in conjunction with other issues.

Plus, they redistricted so now it was only won by Biden by 4% rather than 10% and has a Republican Cook PVI


Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:26 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Yes, it will be very hard for Democrats to win the House with all the gerrymandering. This is why it would take a monumental effort for the Dems to keep it

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:49 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
In the Senate races I am thinking Democrats pick up the seat in Pennsylvania and keep the Arizona seat.

The Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire races are all polling less than 5% difference, Republicans slightly ahead in Georgia and North Carolina and Democrats slightly ahead in Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire. Thinking Republicans take all 5.


Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:19 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Oz is not polling too great. I think at best he's in that second group of closer races.

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:40 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Oz is not polling too great. I think at best he's in that second group of closer races.


That's what I said. PA and AZ seem pretty likely to go to the Dems. Reps are actually polling better in CO than they are in PA and AZ.

GA, NC, WI, NV and NH are the ones where Reps have a great chance. Seems like best case for both parties is 53/47


Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:29 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
zwackerm wrote:
Shack wrote:
That's what I said. PA and AZ seem pretty likely to go to the Dems


Yea I misread that

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:38 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Recent poll I read has Dems with an increase of 3 points since April. I agree with Excel in that the Democrats are trending upward, and the GOP is trending down. If Trump’s legal troubles continues on into the midterms, this could be bad news for what should be a slam dunk for the GOP. Of course a lot of it also depends on the economy

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:05 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Current prices on predictit for senate (roughly reflects betters predicted % of winning)

Colorado 86-13 Democrats
New Hampshire - 73-29 Democrats
Pennsylvania - 73-29 Democrats
Arizona - 62-39 Democrats
Georgia - 60-42 Democrats
Nevada - 52-49 Democrats
Wisconsin - 61-40 Republicans
North Carolina - 70-30 Republicans
Ohio - 73-28 Republican
Florida - 89-13 Republican

This would be +1 Democrats on the whole if all the leaders won with Pennsylvania as the switch

Notably though in mid August last year McAuliffe was about 78 cents

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:18 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Current prices on predictit for senate (roughly reflects betters predicted % of winning)

Colorado 86-13 Democrats
New Hampshire - 73-29 Democrats
Pennsylvania - 73-29 Democrats
Arizona - 62-39 Democrats
Georgia - 60-42 Democrats
Nevada - 52-49 Democrats
Wisconsin - 61-40 Republicans
North Carolina - 70-30 Republicans
Ohio - 73-28 Republican
Florida - 89-13 Republican

This would be +1 Democrats on the whole if all the leaders won with Pennsylvania as the switch

Notably though in mid August last year McAuliffe was about 78 cents


I would say those look accurate though Wisconsin is clearly leaning Dem atm. Last year, the Dam sentiment didn't swing until about this time. Polls are irrelevant. The sentiment momentum is 100% of the Democrats side now. Mitch McConnell basically said it today.

You guys need to the ditch GOP bubble and live in mainstream with the rest pdf the moderates who decide every election. Things have taken an enormous, dramatic turn in favor of the left.

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Last edited by Excel on Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:08 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
zwackerm wrote:
In the Senate races I am thinking Democrats pick up the seat in Pennsylvania and keep the Arizona seat.

The Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire races are all polling less than 5% difference, Republicans slightly ahead in Georgia and North Carolina and Democrats slightly ahead in Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire. Thinking Republicans take all 5.


Nowhere on Earth is showing Herschel Walker ahead of Warnock in GA. Dude live in reality. Come on. :funny:

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Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:09 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
The GOP *should* be able to take most of these, but they nominated complete idiots and probably won't. Dr. Oz, in particular, is running one of the worst campaigns ever. If they not just fail to take the Senate, but give up more seats, *maybe* it'll be a wake up call that they shouldn't go all in on Trump-endorsed MAGA candidates for Senate/Governor. They're candidates that are viable in House races, not Senate races.

McConnell saying he'll retire if the GOP fails to take back the Senate is a good sign for DEMs. He knows the party didn't send their best, far from it.

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Fri Aug 19, 2022 12:07 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Excel wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
In the Senate races I am thinking Democrats pick up the seat in Pennsylvania and keep the Arizona seat.

The Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire races are all polling less than 5% difference, Republicans slightly ahead in Georgia and North Carolina and Democrats slightly ahead in Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire. Thinking Republicans take all 5.


Nowhere on Earth is showing Herschel Walker ahead of Warnock in GA. Dude live in reality. Come on. :funny:


I read it wrong, he's behind by 1.7% according to 538, not ahead, but its still very close, and its a definite improvement from the 5% he was behind in July.

Come on man its far from "live in reality", they are neck and neck

I also do not "live in a bubble" my congressional district is PA-6, which has a 15.7% Democrat margin.

Biden is doing better lately because he hasn't made any big mistakes like Afghanistan or Ukraine lately. But he's still far less popular than any recent president other than Trump


Fri Aug 19, 2022 8:27 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
I'm not personally a fan of "MAGA candidates" but there were no real strong alternatives in PA unfortunately. Oz is a "moderate" and is still probably going to lose.


Fri Aug 19, 2022 8:33 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Fetterman might have been a hard candidate for anyone to beat. The combination of Bernie views but looking like a bouncer (even though it seems to be cosplay) seems to have hit with Democrats.

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Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:34 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
zwackerm wrote:
Biden is doing better lately because he hasn't made any big mistakes like Afghanistan or Ukraine lately. But he's still far less popular than any recent president other than Trump


Who thinks Ukraine was a mistake by Biden ?

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Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:24 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Excel wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Biden is doing better lately because he hasn't made any big mistakes like Afghanistan or Ukraine lately. But he's still far less popular than any recent president other than Trump


Who thinks Ukraine was a mistake by Biden ?


The Russians and the Chinese.

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Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:54 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
I think ranked choice primaries are the way to go going forward, that will prevent extremists in either party from having an outsized influence on a primary. This may lead to 2 democrats or 2 republicans going against each other, but it would be better than 30% of a party throwing an election for the other 70%


Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:21 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Fetterman might have been a hard candidate for anyone to beat. The combination of Bernie views but looking like a bouncer (even though it seems to be cosplay) seems to have hit with Democrats.


Economic progressivism is a sure-fire winning message in the region. It's basically Bernie 2016. Sticking to bread-and-butter issues and leaving guns or immigration for another day.


Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:33 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Algren wrote:
Excel wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Biden is doing better lately because he hasn't made any big mistakes like Afghanistan or Ukraine lately. But he's still far less popular than any recent president other than Trump


Who thinks Ukraine was a mistake by Biden ?


The Russians and the Chinese.


lol.

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Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:46 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Oz is only trailing by 7.5% and Masters by 8% at this point so at least they're not as pathetic as they were, though it will still be a very uphill battle for both of them

Johnson now trailing by 4%, Walker by 1.7%, Laxalt by 3%, Bolduc by 4%, O'Dea by 8%

On the Republican winning side, Budd is leading by 2.8%, Rubio by 5.8%, Vance by 3%


Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:53 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Vance with a 3% lead, assuming this is within the margin of error, in Ohio in a GOP favored year, is pretty dang bad. This should have been a relatively safe retention for the GOP, but will require a lot of time and resources going into the race that could have been spent on more of a toss-up race like in NC.

Not surprising, Vance is awful and if he wins it certainly won't be because of people voting for him because they like him, but this tells you just how bad the Republican party messed up in picking their Senate candidates this year. They willingly turned what should have been a favorable year for them to gain control of the Senate by a couple seats into an unfavorable situation where they could lose a couple seats.

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“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
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Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:59 am
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
In the last couple cycles Republicans have overperformed polling by 2-5% as a regular occurence and sometimes by 8-10%, so I'm not crazy worried about any of these races, with the exception of PA and AZ which are still not close enough to swing R by any likely measure.

I'm not familiar with Vance beyind him writing Hillbilly Elegy and expressing support for banning porn. Why is he so unpopular in a state that voted for Trump by almost 10%?


Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:08 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Trafalgar has Republicans up by 2.4% in Nevada. It looks like Republicans have a decent chance there with the signs they have made major inroads with hispanics.

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Mon Aug 22, 2022 1:50 pm
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Post Re: The Biden era: The Establishment Strikes Back
Shack wrote:
Trafalgar has Republicans up by 2.4% in Nevada. It looks like Republicans have a decent chance there with the signs they have made major inroads with hispanics.


The worst poll for him right now is within the margin of error, so I feel good about Nevada.


Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:10 pm
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