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 2024 election 
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Keeping it Light
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Post Re: 2024 election
I think having a high floor is way worse than a high ceiling in politcs, well it can and has helped an incumbent sometimes. So if between Biden and Trump, I see more as an advantage for Biden too. But without an incumbent, it's as far as I can remember always been the springy candidate to win over the one with the more established base. Trump, rightful or not due to the Dems efforts to bring him down, is just damaged goods and though I think 2 years is still a long time for things to change, it doesn't look good.


Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:18 am
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Post Re: 2024 election
I think the question here needs to be why he was holding on to these documents.

I am starting to think pessimistically here again that it could be as simple as a ruse to force the FBI to search his home for these documents to create publicity for himself.

Or it could be something more nefarious.

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Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:45 am
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Superfreak
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Post Re: 2024 election
Trump has always been a mix of surprisingly smart and surprisingly dumb, I think this id the dumb side. I think he felt they were his personal property and called it a day.

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Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:34 am
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Post Re: 2024 election
It really seems like the GOP is going in the direction of Ron DeSantis. The whole anti-woke movement is more of a DeSantis thing than a Trump thing and it is clear the whole flying migrants around the country is being done to put the spotlight on DeSantis and Abbott right now. Even look at Fox News, their focus is on immigration, the economy, and wokeness.

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Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:16 am
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Hold the door!
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Post Re: 2024 election
I hope the Trump cultists wake up and realize Trump 2024 is handing the election to Dems on a silver platter


Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:24 am
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007
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Post Re: 2024 election
I think that would be best for the country

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Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:00 pm
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Devil's Advocate
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Post Re: 2024 election
If the plan was to nominate someone non-controversial and win by default, DeSantis is not the guy

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Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:03 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
Shack wrote:
If the plan was to nominate someone non-controversial and win by default, DeSantis is not the guy


There is no non controversial Republican that would win because of how it would drive down turnout as evidenced in 2012 when Republicans thought Romney could win due to Obama backlash. Desantis is obviously hated by leftists but not by moderates as he turned Florida from a swing state to a red state


Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:43 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
zwackerm wrote:
Shack wrote:
If the plan was to nominate someone non-controversial and win by default, DeSantis is not the guy


There is no non controversial Republican that would win because of how it would drive down turnout as evidenced in 2012 when Republicans thought Romney could win due to Obama backlash. Desantis is obviously hated by leftists but not by moderates as he turned Florida from a swing state to a red state


12 Obama is still a lot harder to beat than 82 year old Biden, Newsom or Harris, so 12 Romney as an average candidate wasn't enough to win, but the equivalent might be able to win 24. However it's unclear whether they have a non controversial candidate on the level of 12 Romney, and whether they can survive the primary to get there anyway.

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Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:13 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
According to polls Trump would still be neck and neck with Biden in polling with 42-46 in the most recent poll favoring Biden, with aggregated polls favoring Trump 44-43. Not sure I believe that but we'll see


Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:17 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
5 is MAGA, 1 is RINO:

5 - Trump
4 - DeSantis
3 - Cruz
2 - Haley
1 - Romney

The ideal person to find the middle ground would be someone like Cruz but not actually him because of how unlikable he is. Maybe Hawley, Cotton and Noem are people in that zone and therefore sleepers.

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Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:24 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
I would say Cruz is more MAGA than DeSantis

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Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:27 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
The thing I’m most confident in for 24 election is Harris will not be winning.

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Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:59 am
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Superfreak
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Post Re: 2024 election
Zero doubt that Desantis would defeat Trump if they both run. DT's legal problems are severe, the stench of his post election behavior is still intolerable, and RD just seems much more competent as a governor than DT ever was as President. GOPers want someone they think can really win and get enthusiastic about. DT is not and will not be that person for 75% of the party .

Also strongly getting the vibe that the GOP will consolidate support around a non-Trump candidate ala the Dems ganging up against Bernie in 2020.

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Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:45 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
I do think after 2022, when the Republicans only take the house by 20ish seats instead of the 40 they probably could have, and either take the senate by 1 seat or lose it for another 2 years, the heat around Trump will cool since it will be his endorsed candidates losing the generals


Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:01 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
Republicans better pray that Trump and DeFascist don't run at the same time. Trump would call him a sissy girl and he'd crumble. He's the whiniest little pansy in the country. I hope it happens because it's going to be hilarious.

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Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:00 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
If Trump is running, he's got to run in 2024. He'd be 82 in 2028, but even with age aside, there's the chance there'd be a Republican president then. So... 2024 or never again, really.

DeSantis also sort of needs to run in 2024 to maintain his presence and momentum. He has more time to run later on, yeah, but passing these moments up in politics is unwise.

I don't think Trump runs. He's going to drag it out to the very last moment so he can continue to milk his base dry and remain in the spotlight. He's a big, big sore loser. And those types rarely try something again out of fear of losing again, which reaffirms that "loser" status in their heads. He thinks (to some degree, I guess) that he "won" 2020, so he'll be satisfied enough to get by on that for the rest of his life.

The one thing that might change things is if Crist beats DeSantis in November. I assume DeSantis will win comfortably enough (polls have him with a decent 6-8pt lead or so)), but he's also dividing the public around him. Could be more 50/50 in the most classic 50/50 state there is.

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Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:24 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
I think Trump is too troubled by the global situation to just decide not to run cause he wants to do rich guy fun stuff for four more years, it's worth the sacrifice of going to work four more years if it means getting things under control, by doing things like half-seriously offering to meditate the Russia Ukraine peace it shows he thinks he could do better talking to Putin than Biden. If he doesn't run it's because he thinks the Republicans have a better chance of winning without him, but even then the person that gets in has to be good instead of an establishment hack, or else it's pointless. It's more likely he just runs and tries to take it in his own hands.

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Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:07 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
He's not only going to run, but he will run mostly unopposed. It is political suicide for any republican to suggest he lost the last election much less challenge him for the next one. The only ones on the debate stage with him will be already-cancelled republicans like Liz Cheney, other celebrities and other rich dudes. He will win every primary by 20+ points.


Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:47 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
For some people like Cruz, Haley, Cotton, etc. that were longshots to ever be president anyway maybe going for it in 2024 against Trump and trying to make the argument all they need is a normal non-Trump candidate to win is their best chance. 2028 Republicans could be pretty good if they add some people like Youngkin and Lake to DeSantis.

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Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:14 pm
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Post Re: 2024 election
Trump will run and will lose republicans the election to Biden in a 2020 remake. I look forward to him losing a second time. The twice impeached twice losing president has a nice tone to it.


Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:52 pm
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