I see Obama barley winning Ohio and Flordia, easily winning Virgina and the Rocky Mountain States (the youth vote is MASSIVE!!)

However I do not see NC and Missouri flipping and Indiana is gone for them.


I think Obama will do better then expected in small states, and worse then expected in big states.

Florida will be very difficult for Obama to win. The demo there is probably his weakest in any other swing state. Huge senior population (it's the oldest state) for example. I think the senior population is the only reason it's even a swing state at all really.

Huge senior population, yes, but a large percentage of that senior population is Jewish, which will lean it back towards Obama a little bit. Florida is hard because there are just so many competing factors:
-Old people (a lot of whom are Jews)

-North Florida - basically the south

-Central Florida - basically the midwestern suburbs (but pretty far to the right)

-South Florida-
-Jews/Other Ex-Northeasters: go left
-Lots of minorities: go left....except for the
-Cubans: go right

On the other hand, at least here, Obama volunteers and paraphernalia are ten or twenty to one easily to those of McCain. Of course, it's a young, collegey area, but still...it's insane.

The younger Cubans are pretty left, though.

That was October 13 baby!!!! SO CLOSE.... Just got WV and NC switched and Missouri may go to McCain but it's one hell of a close race.

But, my electoral count is actually only 1 vote off.

So... not only did EVERY single "undecided" state go blue (we'll see about MO), but two of his red states even went blue (IN and NC)

Here's how electoral-vote ended up doing.

Final prediction on the morning of the election

_________________________________________________________________
Map as of Nov. 8, 2008


The only state colored the wrong way is Indiana. The polls predicted a 2% win for McCain and it ended up as a 1% win for Obama. The polls said Missouri would be tied and it is (still) tied, so they got that right.

For a couple of states, the color gradations were wrong. Arizona, Arkansas, North Dakota and Georgia went a bit more Republican than the polls indicated and Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, and Pennsylvania went a bit more Democratic than expected. South Carolina was a bit less Republican than expected. All in all, not such a bad result though.

Your electoral count was dead on

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obama-wins-omaha-ne-electoral-vote.html

haha... YEAH!!! 3 weeks out. I have to admit, at the time I went with my gut for a few of them ESPECIALLY Indiana. I remember struggling with that one. I shoulda had more faith in NC!