Just for you Tony my love


Ok folks in this thread you can say who is gonna win the race an why. Please say why you think Obama or McCain is goona make it.

I'm no prognosticator. All I can say is that I know he will win my state, and I hope he wins the election.

It'll be close; Obama will win all of Kerry's states plus Colorado and New Mexico, which will just place him over the top.

No it doesn't, he needs Iowa too.

Sorry, you're correct; my mistake. Iowa will go Obama though, it's pretty clear.

The prediction above is my "worst case scenario". In more optomistic times, I see other states going for Obama too: Florida, Ohio, and Virginia especially.

No problem, I know with Obama's constant 2 digit lead it's hard to remember Kerry lost it.

Thanks for saving me the trouble, Filmo!

Anyhow, my prediction:

McCain wins 295-243.

I see Penn and Colo going McCain, and him holding the rest of what he supposedly has right now. If Penn doesn't flip, I think either Mich, Minn, or Wis will... one of them, which would lead to a similar electoral count result.

I just don't see Obama taking Fla, Ohio, Virginia, or Indiana, and I don't see him keeping all the swing states currently in his column.

I have heard a lot of Jewish voters don't like Palin, it is probably why Florida has gotten closer.

300-238 Obama wins by taking Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Obama has been ahead (or, for a short time, tied) in Pennsylvania this entire election cycle, and this state went for both Gore and Kerry. I don't think PA is going McCain any time soon.

Obama's organizational assets, such as voter registration and the whole youth movement, will put him over the top in a lot of swing states.

My current guess is somewhere around 290-250 for Obama.

Penn has been getting closer in each of the last elections, with Kerry only winning by 2 points in the 2004 election.

It's just a gut feeling that the Bradley Effect or a more motivated McCain base will nip him in one of these traditionally blue states. I picked Penn out because it has been really close lately, and Obama hasn't been above or at 50 points, except for one brief moment in June.

Perhaps, but an anti-Bradley effect could flip a state like NC or VA.

Hmmm... what a difference 2 weeks makes.

I still think it'll be closer than it should be, but here is a revised prediction:

Obama 278 - McCain 260

Of the really tight states:
McCain takes VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MO
Obama takes CO, NV, NM

I'm upping my prediction:

Obama- 353 (Takes FL,VA,NC,OH,CO, and NV)
McCain- 185

Really? Obama has flaws? Who would have known? And here I thought he was god-on-earth, a perfect human.

I'm surprised that no one has tried to tie him to the Tobacco companies since he smokes. Even though he smokes he still plays a decent one-on-one Bball game.

Uh, they have. Even as far back as January, 2007!

At a certain point in the campaign I was hoping he'd pick up the habit again (he quit). He simply wasn't catching on with the white blue-collar voters that seem to like their candidates dressed up in Western shirts, Wranglers, and Timberlands.

Hmm, I suppose what I mean is why they hadn't done it more often and more recently. I remember some random sites popping up here and there about it, but I don't remember anything major. In fact, Bill Simmons said that he found it hard to completely trust a guy that smokes.

I went ahead and tried to find something tying Obama to Big Tobacco, but instead found that Tobacco lobby prefers McCain. Both McCain and Obama worked together on a bill that would allow Congress to regulate Nicotine levels, dictate warning labels and regulate marketing and advertising by the industry.

Hmmm... this settles it... I'm not quitting my day job to become a political pundit.

I think we can officially declare the "Bradley Effect" as dead.

Bradley who?