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Groucho
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Archie Gates wrote: I didn't understand Groucho's response to me. I didn't say or imply anything about Obama getting the nomination because of his name or race. I was just jokingly pointing out that if he was white and had a "whiter" name and was a woman, well he'd be Hillary as she was the only other option besides him.
The thing that turned me off Hillary was her campaign. Taking her just as herself as she is now or last year, she seems like the best choice - but wow, that Karl Rovian campaign she ran...ugh.
Still, Obama should have chosen her in order to unite the party. It doesn't matter if they don't like each other, Reagan and Bush didn't like each other in '80 either. Biden has his good aspects though, I'm not saying he sucks. Your "Hillary should have been the nominee" argument was what I was disagreeing with.
_________________Buy my books! http://michaelaventrella.com

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Sun Sep 21, 2008 11:58 am |
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Beeblebrox
All Star Poster
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:40 pm Posts: 4679
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ ... oting.html1. It is irresponsible to cite this study without fully disclosing its methods or making it subject to peer review, particularly as it appears to use a rather convoluted soup of statistical and inferential techniques.
2. The study appears to be one of all adults, rather than registered or likely voters. Expressions of racial prejudice have a strong inverse correlation with education levels, and so do turnout rates. Therefore, even if it is true that Barack Obama's race puts him at something like a 6-point disadvantage with the population as a whole, the margin is probably more like 4-5 points among likely voters.
3. A related and unresolved question is how many persons will vote for Barack Obama because he is black. Such behavior would probably be more implicit and harder to ascertain than voting against a candidate because of racial prejudice. For instance, Obama's biography is significantly more compelling because he is black (actually, bi-racial), and his change message is probably somewhat easier to sell because he looks different than other (e.g. white) politicians. If he were white, in other words, Barack Obama would not be Barack Obama. Moreover, there may be some people who explicitly vote for Obama because they think it will advance a goal of racial equality, present a different face to the world, and so forth. In the absence of sufficient detail on the study's methodology, it is impossible to know whether these things have been accounted for.
4. One should be very careful not to confuse a study like this with the Bradley Effect. Of course some people are racist, and will vote against Obama because he is black -- I have met some of them. But the Bradley Effect concerns something different -- whether such people are likely to lie about their behavior to pollsters. There is simply no empirical evidence that the Bradley Effect exists any longer. It did not exist in the primaries, and it did not exist in the 2006 Senate race in Tennessee, which was perhaps the most racially-tinged contest of the past decade (in fact, Harold Ford slightly outperformed the late polls).
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Sun Sep 21, 2008 1:50 pm |
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resident
Wall-E
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 5:25 pm Posts: 855
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
I seriously doubt that Hillary could win with the Republican voters in November, so I think Biden is the better choice.
_________________ And he said to the lady, "I love the crushed eggs. Are they yours? To which the lady replied, "No. Not the eggs."
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Sun Sep 21, 2008 1:52 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
If Edwards hadn't had an affair he had been the best choice, but he ruined himself there. I do like that views of the study. It is telling that when they mentioned it looked at all adults. Since at least 40% of the population won't vote it makes some doubt on that survey. I also don't think the really racists in this country don't vote, but they generally hate this country.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:25 am |
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Jim Halpert
Stanley Cup
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 pm Posts: 6981 Location: Hockey Town
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Jedi Master Carr wrote: If Edwards hadn't had an affair he had been the best choice, but he ruined himself there. I do like that views of the study. It is telling that when they mentioned it looked at all adults. Since at least 40% of the population won't vote it makes some doubt on that survey. I also don't think the really racists in this country don't vote, but they generally hate this country. where are you from
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 2:06 am |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Jim Halpert wrote: Jedi Master Carr wrote: If Edwards hadn't had an affair he had been the best choice, but he ruined himself there. I do like that views of the study. It is telling that when they mentioned it looked at all adults. Since at least 40% of the population won't vote it makes some doubt on that survey. I also don't think the really racists in this country don't vote, but they generally hate this country. where are you from What do you mean? The racists i am referring too are those who belong to the Klan, the Aryan Nation, and the skinheads. Those guys never vote because they think the country is run by the Jews. I guess I am also optimistic about our country and hope those guys make up a decent chunk of the racists. I feel/hope that the % racist registered voters it is a much smaller than the one mentioned in that study. Or are you talking about of the percentage of people who vote because that figure is true. Last election 54% of the registered voters voted. I am hoping it can get it over 60% again.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 2:25 am |
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Jim Halpert
Stanley Cup
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 pm Posts: 6981 Location: Hockey Town
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Jedi Master Carr wrote: Jim Halpert wrote: Jedi Master Carr wrote: If Edwards hadn't had an affair he had been the best choice, but he ruined himself there. I do like that views of the study. It is telling that when they mentioned it looked at all adults. Since at least 40% of the population won't vote it makes some doubt on that survey. I also don't think the really racists in this country don't vote, but they generally hate this country. where are you from What do you mean? The racists i am referring too are those who belong to the Klan, the Aryan Nation, and the skinheads. Those guys never vote because they think the country is run by the Jews. I guess I am also optimistic about our country and hope those guys make up a decent chunk of the racists. I feel/hope that the % racist registered voters it is a much smaller than the one mentioned in that study. Or are you talking about of the percentage of people who vote because that figure is true. Last election 54% of the registered voters voted. I am hoping it can get it over 60% again. They dont.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 2:27 am |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Well we don't know for sure do we. I do think things have gotten better since the 50's-60's. You don't see that many lynchings or things like that any more. The fact Obama is in this position shows times have changed. I say you could have anywhere from 10-25% of whites are racists. I can't believe it is more than that.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 2:45 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
your an optimist.
Racism towards Black is very very widespread problem even up here in "tolerant" Canada.
Not only do they face Racism from whites but from other minority groups...
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:34 am |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Lack of lynchings or not being involved in KKK doesn't mean you're not a racist. I still see it all around me and I try to fight it whenever I can. Just the other day while I was cashiering, a customer told me this joke:
What is Obama's plan to help the economy? He's going to re-n*****ate it. (like reinvigorate)
I was shocked for awhile before I actually got a grip of what he said.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:54 am |
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Jim Halpert
Stanley Cup
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 pm Posts: 6981 Location: Hockey Town
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Jedi Master Carr wrote: Well we don't know for sure do we. I do think things have gotten better since the 50's-60's. You don't see that many lynchings or things like that any more. The fact Obama is in this position shows times have changed. I say you could have anywhere from 10-25% of whites are racists. I can't believe it is more than that. I grew up in michigan where you have the Michigan Militia who live up in trees and just collect weapons upon weapons to "defend themselves." They go out and vote. I live in the south and couldn't believe some of the things I've heard from my friends who are from the small towns of a few thousands. Racism still exists in American in a big way, not just in those groups. Heck I saw a preview for Lakeview Terrace and my buddy next me to said gross when Patrick Wilson and Kerry Washington kissed. It's still bad.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:24 am |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
It is still better than 30 years ago. They are sent to the back of the bus and stuff like that. I still think things have improved and are improving especially with younger people. I think in a couple of generations, racism won't be much of a problem. And there is nothing wrong with being an optimist.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:04 pm |
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Jim Halpert
Stanley Cup
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 pm Posts: 6981 Location: Hockey Town
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Jedi Master Carr wrote: It is still better than 30 years ago. They are sent to the back of the bus and stuff like that. I still think things have improved and are improving especially with younger people. I think in a couple of generations, racism won't be much of a problem. And there is nothing wrong with being an optimist. i'm not saying its not better then 30 years ago and i'm not saying it hasn't improved. But thinking that the only racists left are the KKK and hate groups is just plain out insane and ignorant.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:07 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Jim Halpert wrote: Jedi Master Carr wrote: It is still better than 30 years ago. They are sent to the back of the bus and stuff like that. I still think things have improved and are improving especially with younger people. I think in a couple of generations, racism won't be much of a problem. And there is nothing wrong with being an optimist. i'm not saying its not better then 30 years ago and i'm not saying it hasn't improved. But thinking that the only racists left are the KKK and hate groups is just plain out insane and ignorant. I didn't say that I just said the ones outside that group is smaller than it was in the past.
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Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:16 pm |
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Floydboy
ha ha, charade you are
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:05 pm Posts: 2210
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 Re: Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
White support for Obama is at historic levels. Quote: Barack Obama, the first black major party nominee, is positioned to win the largest share of white voters of any Democrat in more than three decades, according to an exclusive Politico analysis of recent Gallup and Pew Research Center polling. The most recent two weeks of Gallup polling, which includes roughly 13,000 interviews, show 44 percent of non-Hispanic white voters presently support Obama  the highest number for a Democrat since 47 percent of whites backed Jimmy Carter in 1976. Until the stock market swoon in mid-September, Obama had never reached 40 percent among white voters.
No Democrat has won a majority of white voters since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. John McCain has shuffled between 48 percent and 50 percent support in recent weeks  which would be the lowest share for a Republican candidate in a two-man race since Barry Goldwater's run. If Obama's share holds, it would top the 43 percent of white voters who backed Bill Clinton in 1996, when the Democrat won a plurality among white females and 38 percent of white men, the best performance by a Democrat in all those categories since 1976. I suppose that with the economy as it is currently, people tend to side more with policy than recent history. I think there's a lot of caucasians who are voting for Obama that have never voted Democrat before and it likely came from resentment of Bush and McCain's negative campaign (instead of focusing on how he'll help the economy).
_________________ Floydboy
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Sat Oct 25, 2008 10:06 am |
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