The point was that some have used electability as a reason to not support Clinton and point to polls that she wouldn't do nearly as well as Obama when going against McCain. I have been trying to make two points. 1) that Obama is not well-known enough and that his support can only go down. things change. the latest series of polls have shown that. meanwhile clinton's support has remained at pretty much the same level throughout the entire campaign.

2) that obama might do better in certain states than clinton, but the states in which clinton does better than obama balance that off. while i have constantly said not to trust polls this early in the race, some of the margins between the candidates in key states are wide enough that i doubt they will change come november. looks like ohio will most definitely go blue. looks like if clinton is the nominee she will most definitely take florida (unless, i guess, crist ends up vp for the republicans). In addition, while obama is unlikely to pick up any additional states other than those he takes in the survey, clinton just barely trails mccain in states like washington, michigan and tennessee so she could end up even higher.

i'm not saying obama doesn't stand a chance of winning, or that people should support clinton simply based on this. but i have heard the argument that clinton stands no chance in the general election and that should be reason enough for people to go with obama many times. i'm simply saying that logic is flawed and i do think this poll supports that.

A little something interesting...

According to the same Survey USA report, Texas is a swing-state.

McCain beats Obama by one point.
47% John McCain
46% Barack Obama
07% Undecided

And beats Clinton by 7.
49% John McCain
42% Hillary Clinton
09% Undecided

Of course this is nine months out and could mean nothing, especially coming on heels of much Democratic excitement in the state. But I still think it's interesting that it could potentially be in play.

Geesh. I could make better maps than those.

#1, Michigan is not voting for McCain. They didn't even vote for him in the primaries (This was Romney's big win). The Economy is the biggest concern there, Hillary or Obama would take it easy.

#2, Hillary won Nevada in a caucus where everything was going against her. I don't understand why Obama would take it but she wouldn't over McCain. My suspicion is McCain has most of the southwest shored up because he is from there. He'll take it. However, if he doesn't, Hillary has a far better chance of taking it than Obama. She won there.

#3. Same thing in New Hampshire. Polls aside, everyone who said they would vote in open election for Obama voted for McCain. Personally, unlike Nevada, I do not think McCain has this state but rather vice versa. New Hampshire is becoming more Blue. That being said, again, Hillary won the primary there despite the scramble after Iowa. This is the state that put her back in the race. However, as in Nevada, if NH votes blue, I think it would do so for either of the two democratic candidates. They both have it as a win.

#4. North Dakota is not voting blue; that's hillarious.

They actually called people in the states so they didn't just pull it out of their ass.

First of all, its all speculation until candidates actually pull out their general election campaigns and go head-to-head. That is when they start highlighting the differences bewteen themselves directly, and people gravitate towards one or the other side based on the issues.



They must have interviewed, like, two people. Both of whom lied.



From: http://www.270towin.com/states/North_Dakota

They interviewed 600 people for each state, so the margin of error is bigger than what they normally have (they usually interview over 1,000 for primaries), and a lot of the states are actually within the MOE and should be considered toss-ups.

Still practically useless for all intends and purposes, except for fun to look at and speculate.

as someone who voted in michigan last election, that state will never vote republican.

Hehe I think people missed the point as to why I posted the naitonal survey/map in the first place.

Yes, things are likely to change, but I was only trying to say even now Clinton holds quite an advantage over Obama in some states. I've heard how if Clinton is selected Obama voters will not support her which will lead to a win by the Repulicans. wEll, yes that is true for some Obama supporters....just like it is true for about an equal amount of Clinton supporters. In the end they end up with about as much support. Again, I'm only trying to say those trying to scare people off into voting for Obama for no other reason than because he will do better in a general election against McCain hold an invalid theory.

600 per state were interviewed.