The Aviator
Collateral
The Day After Tomorrow
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2

Some interesting choices and snubs. Not sure what Ray is doing here, but it's showing support in the tech branches. My prediction:

The Incredibles (well, it's Pixar)
Spider-Man 2
The Aviator (part of nomination sweep)

alternative: The Polar Express

I go with

Spider-Man 2
The Aviator (for the same reason as xiayun)
Collateral (I believe Collateral will be this year's Road to Perdition which means quite a couple of noms, but no major ones)

xiayun's got the 3 i think.

Ray showing up here says a lot for Best Picture. If the technical guys are thinking about it, they might put it down as one of their 3 best pictures of the year.

Just like The Day after Tomorrow

No, but seriously, Hotel Rwanda, Finding Neverland and Eternal Sunshine all have more going for them at the moment than Ray.

That's not true Lecter. It's just not true.

Maybe Sunshine. But Ray has a solid frontrunner in major categories and tech potential apparently.

At this point, I would actually say Collateral has an equal footing with Rwanda on the BP front.

Ray's presence here is well deserved and should win too.

There is one particular scene in the movie where the sound effects editing is just tremendous, effectively showcasing the triumph of blind Ray as a child using the sound around him to "see."

Not to mention the seamless manner in which they edited Ray's real voice into Jamie Foxx's lip synching.

Okay, if you say so

Hotel Rwanda is by far and away more likely at this point than Collateral, c'mon.

Hotel Rwanda, at this point, is making no dent that is noticable. Don Cheadle is not a sure thing and while Eternal Sunshine, Sideways, Million Dollar Baby, The Aviator have been winning almost every thing, Foxx is winning nearly every Best Actor award. When your Best Actor wins awards like that, it usually means his picture will be at least nominated for Best Picture (based historically).

It's got a questionable (in my view) Golden Globe mention (there is no doubt in my mind that it split the 5th/6th slot with Kinsey) and as far as kudos are concerned is in a league more with Kinsey and Collateral than Ray, which is in the same league with Finding Neverland and Eternal Sunshine.

I have respect for the argument that Hotel Rwanda is "academy material" to an extent, although the Academy has ignored politically and socially charged films before in favor of something easier.

On top of all this, Ray is still the box office champ of the bunch until The Aviator overtakes it (and it probably will, but not until after nominations) and it (in my opinion) is percieved as the "audience hit". Heavy media support from people like Star Jones (the View), Oprah, etc. keeps mentions of it circulating even as Finding Neverland slips silently away and Hotel Rwanda's "buzz" is practically non-existant only a few days before it opens.

I actually don't see how anybody can seriously, seriously be predicting the awards this year, regardless of whether your liked Ray or not, and say that Hotel Rwanda has a better shot at a BP nom than Ray. There is nothing to support it.

And Ray just got a Costume Guild nom. It's very possible it will be nominated for techs. Every academy member votes for Best Picture nominees.

Although from the beginning I always knew Ray would be a big contender, I don't think Rwanda is that far down the list.

In my opinion, Rwanda has a better chance than Eternal sunshine and that is just because Sideways takes the comedy/quirky slot this year and with such a strong year for drama, I doubt VERY MUCH there will be 2 light films (though I know both films go much deeper than the surface)

I don't agree that Rwanda had no buxx before it opened. week before it opened, one of my friends couldn't wait to see the movie. She does follow alot of things in entertainment, but she is far from the Oscar observor I am, and I knew this was one of the films of the year that was going to strike a chord with many people. It didn't strike a particularly big one in me, but I know it did in alot of others.

Nice to see The Aviator and Collateral in this group, as they are the two movies this year in which I really noticed the excellent use of sound. The gunfight in the club earns it for Collateral and the Hughes crash scene definitely earns it for The Aviator.