The Aviator (Miramax)
Easy lock. Probably the winner.

Closer (Sony)
Pushed by the actor's performance and Nichols

Finding Neverland (Miramax)
Pushed by Depp's performance and its gooshy sentimentality.

Hotel Rwanda (United Artists)
The unknown!

Kinsey (Fox Searchlight)
All indicators say it's there.

Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.)
Because people *really* like this one.

Ray (Universal)
Pushed by Foxx's very great Oscar chances and Universal.

Sideways (Fox Searchlight)
The indie choice.

Thoughts:

01. The Aviator, Sideways and Million Dollar Baby are almost sure things.

02. I don't think Finding Neverland and Kinsey will both be nominated. Why? Because I don't think Fox Searchlight can get two pictures nominated and Miramax get two pictures nominated, and with Warner Bros. sharing the pot with The Aviator, that's a 3 studio race for Best Picture. Also, Golden Globes is very Miramax happy... I think Finding Neverland is a touch overestimated.

03. I still think you can't discontinue Ray, you can never discontinue the picture with the potential Best Actor Oscar winner.

04. Hotel Rwanda... I have no clue.

05. Closer getting a Best Director Globe helped it a lot...

THE NOMINEES:

The Aviator
Closer
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Ray

I can also see:

The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Ray/Closer

Ray or Closer could be replaced by other things. I could even see Ray getting Picture and Closer getting director in its place.

And for those keeping score at home... That's only 2 bio-pics

There is a slim chance for The Phantom of the Opera....

But all in all, I agree

I agree Closer is back as a contender, but I don't see it getting in for the final 5. If Julia had been nominated... Anyway, I agree with Arthur that Hotel Rwanda is looking more and more likely than Ray to be the 5th nominee.

I still think Fahrenheit 9/11 has a chance, but other than that I agree.

The 5 nominees:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Hotel Rwanda

6. Closer
7. Kinsey

Are contenders (but I don't see it happening):
8. Fahrenheit 9/11
9. Ray

The problem with Hotel Rwanda vs. Ray is the following:

01 Ray is higher profile.
02 Foxx has a greater chance of winning Best Actor.
03 Universal vs. United Artists
04 Box Office.

Usually, the Best Actor winner has his picture nominated for Best Picture.

Recent exceptions:

2001: Denzel Washington/Training Day
1993: Tom Hanks/Philadelphia
1990: Jeremy Irons/Reversal of Fortune
1987: Michael Douglas/Wall Street
1974: Art Carney/Harry and Tonto

etc.

THOSE ARE THE EXCEPTIONS.

So if you are like me and think Foxx is a shoe-in for Best Actor, it really props Ray up to Best Picture territory.

The subject matter favors Hotel Rwanda a great deal. It does look a lot like The Pianist, to a slightly lesser degree awareness-wise (winning Toronto instead of Cannes).

I actually think Cheadle has a better chance of winning, if only because he's more likem Denzel in the sense that the academy might think he's overdue, which is not really the case for Jamie Foxx( though there's no denying he's ahving a great year so far)

Agreed. I still believe it'll be this year's dark horse.

I thought Million Dollar Baby was the dark horse

That I posted back in October

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=424

Wern't ome of you saying spanglish?

I never believd that Spanglish had a chance in first place.

I remember in a thread....a few people predicting that it had a chance

Yeah, well, James L. Brooks made it and he also made As Good as it Gets, so...

The five likelist nominees, as of now, imo:

The Aviator
Closer
Hotel Rwanda
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

I really don't see Finding Neverland getting a Best Picture nomination. Blah. I don't know.

No, there's not.

Just drop it, Lecter. DROP IT!!!!

Tehe

NO!!

Not as long as you believe in Delpy getting a nod

I said I think she's got a shot, but at this point I still wouldn't even put her on my list.

:skips away:

I hope Ray, Finding Neverland and The Aviator all get it.

Finding Neverland has advantage over Closer in a lot of areas. It has better reviews from both the critics(RT, Metric) and more general movie-goers (Yahoo, IMDb). It will certain to gross more than Closer as both will expand the following weeks. BFCA will tell us more.

Hotel Rwanda's chances are minimal now. So are Kinsey's.

Spanglish is out of the race, if ever it was in....

Locks:

Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

Then we have....

Finding Neverland, which in my opinion is an underwhelming movie and really hasn't continued it's NBR steam and needs some critical critics awards.

Ray, an enormous crowd-pleaser, decent reviews, raves for Jamie Foxx and on a smaller scale for supporting actresses. Considering he died the past year and grammys just gave him a plethora of nods, it's not that out of reach of a nomination.

Phantom of the Opera: people are counting this out way too fast. I know Chicago had aLOT of mixed reactions months leading up to its release. This is the most beloved musical of all time and its release as a major motion picture has been long awaited. Emmy Rossum garnering some buzz is excellent news and just the fact that Lloyd Webber was a big part of the movie tells you it shouldn't be a total disaster. I'm doubting it's chances right now, but others are completely removing it from the race and I think they are making rash judgements.

Closer: The Globes defintely revived it. Having 6 nominees kinda makes you wonder if they were stretching it to include Closer... but it's chances are still questionable.

How I seem them now....

Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Finding Neverland/Closer
Ray/Phantom of the Opera

Closer has 5 Globe nominations, not 6. I don't see it getting in. Director maybe since only director branch nominates directors, but not best picture.

I think Hotel Rwanda has a much better chance than people give it credit for. Over the years, we have learned it is one subject that academy just loves to nominate. It is also quite critically acclaimed.

Only getting 3 noms hurt The Phantom of the Opera more than helping it. I believe Chicago had 8 Globe noms, including director and a lot more acting nods. The early screenings went very well for Chicago, while the ones for Phantom sound like a disaster. Chicago was in a lot more top 10 lists at this time, while there is virtually no mention of Phantom among critic groups so far. I'm not totally counting it out, but its chance is really slim.

Ray could also have gotten more help from the Globe than it received. It looks more and more like people are saying it's Jamie Foxx and nothing else.

I meant the fact that Best Picture Drama had 6 nods, not Closer's nomination tally.

I do agree Hotel Rwanda still has a great chance and it has stayed in the top 8 of my list for a long while, peaking at #4 position once.

As for Phantom.... I did look into some of 2002's critics top tens and some of the early ones this year. You seem to have it more right than I do.... Chicago did better with critics, up to this point and it will most defintely get better reviews. I do remember some people bashing Chicago as early as when they screened it during Summer and plus I never follow early screening reactions, I don't know where you all get that info from. Phantom has defintely fallen from a high position, but my point is basically, don't count it out.

I do agree Ray and especially Phantom were hurt by the Globes, but we will just have to see.

Ray is seriously only carried by Foxx and he'll be the one who will be awarded for that.

Hotel Rwanda stands at 81% at RT now and the trend is rising. The subject of the movie is one that you can't easily overlook.

The Phantom of the Opera is really not getting great buzz. What hurt it the most and killed its chances was the fact that it NEITHER got a Best Director nom NOR a Best Screenplay nom. It's almost out of the race.

Closer is still in, however, the love/hate factor of the movie will hurt it and the reviews are by far not as favorable as Hotel Rwanda's.