I've recently noticed that in the past I could become completely dettached from all movies/people in the Oscar race and predict with what I actually thought had a chance, which probably made me a better predictor.

But recently that is becoming harder and harder, it's very hard to dicuss a film and its award chances without taking my personal opinion into account.

So I'm just wonndering, how ahrd is it for you guys to keep your opinion on films completely separate when you are making predictions?

The later I get in the year, the less trouble I have with bias.

I am hardly biased considering I haven't seen most of the possible contenders...

EXCELLENT idea for a thread and discussion.

I don't want to be boastful, but I truly believe I look at things like Oscar as unbiasely as possible....

Take this year for example...

My top 5 greatest film (not favorites)

1. KILL BILL
2. Before Sunset
3. Dogville
4. Passion of the Christ
5. can't decide.... ray/sideways/f9/11, shrek 2

Now, I know just about all of these movies have no Best Pcture chances.
I think Uma and Carradine deserve nods, Hawk and Delpy deserve nods, Morgenstern deserves a nod, Nicole, Bettany, and Clarkson....
All of them deserve screenplay nods among more...

But realistically....

Carradien has chance, and a slight chance for Best Actress
Sunset has a slight chance for Screenplay and Best Actress
Dogville will get nothing
Passion has no real shots at any of the big ones, I don't know maybe a complete snub.

Maybe that wasn't the best example. But, I really try to look at things as objectively as I can. I try to see how the Academy thinks and I'm not that good cuz I've only been into the Oscar thing for 3 or so years.

the one thing I hate is when I go to see a movie with ALOT of predispositions about from critics or what have you.... then I find myself constantyl thinking, is he good, is she worthy rather than just enjoying the movie. Luckily it doesn't happen for every movie, but sometimes it bugs me.
and I hate to point it out to people when I think they go bias because sometimes they get offended or they just won't have it any other way and aren't worth arguing/debating with.

For future reference, I'd appreciate people to point out to me if they think I'm going bias.

the biggest bias I have probably ever had is for Return of the King and I realize it now. Not for the other LOTR movies, only ROTK. Even though I did think it should win something huge for the entire accomplishment, I am realizing that I was actually disappointed with the movie, except for the last 40 minutes. It wasn't too well edited, too long with still leaving out great story. I think it's the only movie I was actually in denial about for the first few months because I had set myself up to think it was one of the best ever made, while it turned out to be amazing but flawed. I think the Fellowship of the ring is far superior to the other 2 films in just about every form: acting, directing, quality, pace, look. It's just overall the best finished product of the three.

I still love all of them. They continue to amaze me everytime I see them. The trilogy is my second favorite movie of all time and I will never stop loving them, but they really could have tweaked the last one to make it better. That year the best movie was 21 grams and following it Mystic River.

I am really interested in reading what others have to say.

l don't really care enough to predict with bias...l'm not nearly into this as some. And l also don't "try to think like the voters," or anything...cuz l don't know how they think.

So, what l post is merely opinion. When l say "Collateral will not be nominated" l don;t have some big idea or analysis of why not...l just don't think it will. (and l'll be right...uh...)

:?

I think it's almost impossible to be free from bias when making predictions. I don't have many problems with it since I haven't seen many of the movies! Awards are so subjective everyone has some form of bias. Who really can say one performance or film is better than another? We all watch movies through different viewpoints that originate from our experiences, beliefs, etc.

I think what a lot of us on these forums miss out on is we don't have alot of insight into what people in 'the industry' actually think about certain filmmakers, performers, etc. Maybe some do, but most of us don't. For example, people may respect Russell Crowe's talent, but do they like him? Is Nicole Kidman cold and aloof, or is she shy? Do people think Ron Howard is a very talented filmmaker, or is he a really, really nice guy? Those are sometimes the real reason for Oscar nomiantion or the lack thereof, maybe.

You can't always predict based on critical acclaim either. Sometimes the most critically acclaimed films miss out on Oscar nominations the most. Remember Mullholland Drive and Naomi Watts? American Splendor?

I think we all predict based on our bias. And the Academy nominates even more based on bias. Anyone who says otherwise is wrong. And how can you really take predicting these things too seriously? It's fun, but most of us are going to miss it a lot.

I would disagree. You post extensively about Before Sunset. I would say you are heavily biased towards that film even though it's award chances are relatively minor.

It's not an attack, I have a tiny bit of bias about Ray and had a bit of bias toward Passion and Sunshine.

Others:

Rod is/was a big Spanglish booster.

Lecter loved him some The Sea Inside.

etc.

...that Phantom of the Opera probably sucks!

:wink:

What about what other people are predicting...what kind of influence does that have on your predictions?


Again, I try not to keep other people's predictions seperate for my own, but every once in a while I can't help but be influence a bit. This year, for example, after Passion of Christ came out I stated that it had no chance cause such a poorly reviewed film had never been nominated for best picture, that I could think of. I held that opinion for a while but after so many people stating that it had a strong chance being the kind of film that it was, and it being such a box office phenomenon and all, it had a great chance. I don't think I ever had it in my 5 predicted best picture nominees, but for a while I did think, ok well maybe it will be a contender.


Looking back on it, that was a little foolish.

When it comes to award predictions, it's easy for me, because they aren't my favorite types of movies most of the time. I just put on my film snob hat, and look at the movies through those eyes when predicting how a bunch of film snobs are going to vote on a group of movies, actors, etc... You get a sense of the people who are awards darlings and such, and you also have to weigh in the "reward awards", which are many times given for career achievements, as opposed to the individual film that's been nominated. Another reason why I'm not really bias, is because I don't care who wins. The results are meaningless to me when all is said and done. Only my feelings for the movie really count. I'm as wrong as the next person when predicting, but I'm usually wrong for not getting their thought process right, rather than picking my favorite for bias reasons. I was very vocal about my feelings of ROTK, but I still predicted it to win the Oscar, regardless of how I felt about it and Mystic River.