Well, aside from being sick of all the complaining about "this isn't interesting" here are my thoughts...

With all due respect Mike, I actually think Kate Winslet is the "It Girl" far more than Swank.

And Ziayum, No, Swank will not blow you away, all the performances in that movie are subtle, her's the most showy but still isn't an insatnt pick for the winner.

As far as Best Actress goes, I am expecting Annette Benning to win. Her performance is the perfect choice.
I don't think they will give it to Swank twice in 6 years, everyone has that in their argument, but they seriously won't (the only actress working today that deserves 2 oscar in such a short period is Nicole Kidman for playing so many roles and pulling them all off).
then.... Imelda Satunton will be too small and far too unkown compared to the others for the win.
Kate Winslet... not only is she actually not as good as the three listed above (not downplaying her at all, she still deserves to be in the top 5), I really don't think she'll garner THAT many enough votes over ALL 3 of those women to win.
And of course the unpredicatbility of a 5th nominee already says much about her chances.

That leaves Benning, who alot think is due and this is the perfect movie or her, I mean THE perfect movie for her to win. I have seen it and while it's not near the best of the year, her performance is worthy enough to garner the buzz and Oscar bait.

Now, as for Best Picture....
I, too, now finally realize that Aviator may not actually win. I was actually thinking about it in school that Million Dollar Baby is growing in chances to win.
And wasn't I the first to say that Sideways might actually have a chance to win? Or I posed the question more like it.

:-({|=

- I don't think Swank performance was subtle - the couple of her talks / speeches made it more powerful than a subtle performance.

- And I agree with you on Million Dollar Baby being the slim front-runner, I would think that that would also increase Swank's chances.

- On Benning, I haven't seen the movie yet but is there a chance that her great performance could be overshadowed by the right timing of MDB and Swank. And when did Benning's movie come out.

Being Julia has been out since October, I believe. The quality of a film doesn't hinder the ability to get its star nominated, as Diane Lane showed with Unfaithful, along with other examples. However, the quality of the film is more important when come to help the person actually winning the award, especially when it is the only nomination for the film, such as Charlize Theron for Monster. Being Julia is sitting at 77% in RT with an average score of 6.7. It isn't bad, but given the rave for Million Dollar Baby, I think Swank has a slight edge right now. Million Dollar Baby isn't going home empty-handed, so I think either Swank or Freeman or both will win.

I agree, they need a category to compensate M$B for losing all major categories to Aviator :wink:

I read one argument though against Swank. It's the fact, that it would be her second Oscar, which would put her up to a level with some of the elite actresses of all time. The article said that Oscar voters keep such things in mind and weren't likely to do that though her performance may be the best

I think there are a lot of voters who want Scorsese finally to win and quite frankly he deserves it for this movie. Having two critical darling like M$B and Sideways in the competition IMO might actually help Scorseses cause since they might take votes away from each other while the Scorsese supporters will stay firm with Aviator.

I think that's the only and strongest argument against Swank. Without 1999, Swank will win easily. It isn't just because she won in 1999; it's because she beat Benning that year as well. Beating another actress twice in the same category, especially one as accomplished as Benning, will be a hard barrier for some voters. It's basically down to how strongly people feel about Swank's performance. It's kind of similar to Tom Hanks for Forrest Gump, although Hanks was much more established and popular already then. Voters respected the tradition of not having the same actor winning two consecutive years, but that reason alone wasn't strong enough to convince them not to vote for Hanks's performance.

I wouldn't know why it is Million Dollar Baby posing the threat for The Aviator now. It's not like it's Million Dollar Baby which is winning all the awards now...

Complete voting data:

BEST PICTURE - Winner, Sideways - 41 votes
Runners up: The Aviator - 37 votes / Million Dollar Baby - 20 votes / Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 14 votes / Ray - 14 votes / Finding Neverland - 10 votes / Hotel Rwanda - 10 votes / The Phantom of the Opera - 5 votes / Collateral - 3 votes / Kinsey - 2 votes

BEST ACTOR - Winner, Jamie Foxx - Ray - 80 votes
Runners up: Paul Giamatti - Sideways - 19 votes / Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda - 17 votes / Javier Bardem - The Sea Inside - 14 votes / Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland - 13 votes / Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator - 13 votes

BEST ACTRESS - Winner, Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby - 56 votes
Runners up: Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake - 39 votes / Annette Bening - Being Julia - 20 votes / Uma Thurman - Kill Bill: Volume 2 - 19 votes / Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 15 votes / Catalina Sandino Moreno - Maria Full of Grace - 6 votes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Winner, Thomas Haden Church - Sideways - 57 votes
Runners up: Clive Owen - Closer - 34 votes / Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby - 33 votes / Jamie Foxx - Collateral - 29 votes / Peter Sarsgaard - Kinsey - 3 votes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Winner, Virginia Madsen - Sideways - 55 votes
Runners up: Cate Blanchett - The Aviator - 51 votes / Natalie Portman - Closer - 21 votes / Laura Linney - Kinsey - 19 votes / Kate Winslet - Finding Neverland - 9 votes

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE - Winner, Sideways - 96 votes
Runners up: Closer - 34 votes / The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou - 17 votes / Ocean's Twelve - 7 votes

BEST DIRECTOR - Winner, Martin Scorsese - The Aviator - 69 votes
Runners up: Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby - 31 votes / Alexander Payne - Sideways - 29 votes / Taylor Hackford - Ray - 17 votes / Marc Forster - Finding Neverland - 9 votes

BEST WRITER - Winner, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor - Sideways - 67 votes
Runners up: Charlie Kaufman - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 50 votes / David Magee - Finding Neverland - 18 votes / John Logan - The Aviator - 13 votes / Bill Condon - Kinsey - 8 votes

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Winner, The Incredibles - 109 votes
Runners up: Shrek 2 - 29 votes / The Polar Express - 18 votes

BEST YOUNG ACTOR - Winner, Freddie Highmore - Finding Neverland - 99 votes
Runners up: Daniel Radcliffe - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 25 votes / Cameron Bright - Birth - 12 votes / William Ullrich - Beyond The Sea - 10 votes / Liam Aiken - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 9 votes

BEST YOUNG ACTRESS - Winner, Emmy Rossum - The Phantom of the Opera - 65 votes
Runners up: Dakota Fanning - Man on Fire - 49 votes / Emma Watson - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 18 votes / Lindsay Lohan - Mean Girls - 14 votes / Emily Browning - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 8 votes

BEST POPULAR MOVIE - Winner, Spider-Man 2 - 55 votes
Runners up: The Passion of the Christ - 31 votes / The Incredibles - 29 votes / The Bourne Supremacy - 20 votes / Napoleon Dynamite - 20 votes

BEST FAMILY FILM (LIVE ACTION) - Winner, Finding Neverland - 69 votes
Runners up: Spider-Man 2 - 32 votes / Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 20 votes / Miracle - 20 votes / Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 13 votes

BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION - Winner, The Life and Death of Peter Sellers - 56 votes
Runners up: The Wool Cap - 27 votes / The Five People You Meet in Heaven - 24 votes / Something the Lord Made - 22 votes

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Winner, Fahrenheit 9/11 - 84 votes
Runners up: Super Size Me - 31 votes / Metallica: Some Kind of Monster - 22 votes / Control Room - 14 votes

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - Winner, The Sea Inside - 40 votes
Runners up: A Very Long Engagement - 34 votes / The Motorcycle Diaries - 32 votes / Maria Full of Grace - 28 votes / House of Flying Daggers - 19 votes

BEST SONG - Winner, "Old Habits Die Hard", Mick Jagger and Dave Stewart - Alfie - 62 votes
Runners up: "Accidentally in Love", Counting Crows - Shrek 2 - 45 votes / "Believe", Josh Groban - The Polar Express - 35 votes

BEST SOUNDTRACK - Winner, Ray - 55 votes
Runners up: De-Lovely - 35 votes / Garden State - 30 votes / Beyond The Sea - 21 votes / Alfie - 12 votes

BEST COMPOSER - Winner, Howard Shore - The Aviator - 69 votes
Runners up: Michael Giacchino - The Incredibles - 42 votes / Rolfe Kent - Sideways

Cate lost by 4 votes. Also I agree the best picture battle is between Sideways and The Aviator. Million Dollar Baby seems to be a distant third.

You know what is surprsing? Javier Bardem actually got more votes than DiCaprio and Depp. Moreover, I am surprised that House of Flying Daggers ended up last votes-wise (Best Foreign Picture).

Jamie Foxx appears to be a certain Best Actor winner this year.

I still think it is between Aviator and Million Dollar Baby, but I do believe more and more that Scorsese is finally a lock as Best Director and Aviator has a clear edge for Picture

I love when they release the numbers. Oscar should do the same. A lot of the numbers here are telling: the margin Scorsese won best director by (the support for him is so much stronger this time around than for GONY); how Leo got so few votes (I'd think he will be second; Foxx has this one in the bag; the support for him is simply unbelivable); how close The Aviator came to win both BP and Supporting Actress, which would've completely changed the headline.

Ahh, these results make total sense.

The Aviator is going to win Best Picture, and Cate Blanchett win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, in my opinion.

PEACE, Mike

I'm going to stick to my claim that The Aviator will be the year's most nominated film, but it won't actually win Best Picture.

I guess we'll see in February.

I dunno, this win for Sideways might actually be the turning point for me. It has a good shot at winning, but I just can't see it actually doing so. Madsen and Church might win too, but their wins aren't assured either with Cate and Freeman/Owen in their respective categories.

Its a shame Scorsese might win for this movie, instead of his other greats. He's fallen off, he doesnt deserve to win, he's one of the reasons this movie fails in my book, he shouldnt be judged on his other movies and because he hasnt one an award yet, he should be judged on this movie alone, too bad that wont happen, they'll take account all his other achievements in his career which is completely lame.

Actually I believe he will win more on merit than anything else this time. It should be judged on this movie alone, and The Aviator is brillant. I have no problem with him winning. His past history sometimes actually hinders him. People believe he shouldn't win because he made such classics as Good Fellas and Taxi Driver. It doesn't mean he doesn't deserve win just because his latest films aren't as great as those. It should be compared with this year's competition, and for me at least, he gave one of the best directing job this year. The public opinion is completely different this time around than for GONY, and I happen to agree in both cases. I was happy he didn't win for GONY, and I'm happy that he will be awarded for The Aviator.