Okay, I have planned this for a while and here it is, my analysis of the oscar chances of this year's possible oscar contenders. Obviously, most of what I'll say is based on a mixture of my opinion and the buzz the movies are getting as well as on past oscar history. I will analyze the chances of possible contenders and give my predictions which of course are likely to change in the course of the awards season. In the end, it'll be fun to look back and see where I was right and where I was wrong. Okay, enough with the blabbing, here we go with the analysis:




Eternal Sunshine of the Spoteless Mind:


Kaufman movies have always been very well received by reviewers as well as by audiences. Yet, they have never gotten much recognition from the Academy. Adaptation and Being John Malkovich are excellent examples, especially Adaptation. That movie was released in December 2002 and got excellent reviews. Most reviewers called it one of the best movies of the year. Nonetheless, in the end it failed to garner a Best Picture nomination. However, both movies, Being John Malkovich as well as Adaptation received acting nominees (deservingly so). Adaptation got three (Cage, Streep, Cooper) and Being John Malkovich one (Keener). Now Eternal Sunshine seems to be better received than all previous Kaufman movies. It is already in the TOP 40 on IMDB's TOP 250 Movies list. Furthermore it is his highest grossing movie so far and it is one of the best-reviewed movies of the year with an RT score of over 90%. Still, I doubt that the pattern will change.

Another thing going against this movie is its early release date. I really think a fall release would have been a much smarter move. While the movie was Kaufman's most successful outing to date, it didn't make enough impact at the box-office to remain in people's heads. Surely, every year, there is usually a pre-September movie that gets a Best Picture nom. Last year it was Seabiscuit, 2000 these movies were Gladiator and Erin Brockovich. But let's face it. Those movies all made $100+ million at the box-office and they were pure "oscar-screaming" dramas. Eternal Sunshine of the spotless Mind is way too quirky, way too unusual for the Academy members of which some are, as a critic has once stated, "older than Gandalf". That doesn't mean that an usual movie can't get nominated. But this one didn't make enough of an impact at the box-office and not even the DVD release will help it. The movie is too small and if the Academy wants to nominate a small and well-reviewed movie, they can nominate Sideways. As simple as that. Furthermore, the omission of Eternal Sunshine from the National Board of Review hurt its chances even further. I am willing to bet that if the movie was released in October/November there would be no way the critics wouldn't put it on the NBR.

To put it in a nutshell, there are too many odds against this movie. It failed to garner much buzz, it was released too early, Kaufman doesn't have a great track record with Best Picture noms and the movie is too quirky. Nevertheless, I don't think it is possible that the Academy can ignore this movie completely. As I said earlier, Kaufman's movies might not do well as Best Picture noms, but Kaufman knows how to make his cast act well and it usually pays off. Now we have Jim Carrey and Kate Winset as this movie's leads. Jim Carrey is a great actor, but the Academy doesn't love him unlike the Golden Globes. Carrey didn't get his deserving noms for Man on the Moon and The Truman Show and this year's Best Actor race seems way too tight right now, to consider Jim Carrey a big contender, especially if you take his track record with the Academy into account.

As for Kate Winslet, I think her chances to get nominated are pretty high at the moment. It seems to be her year with a praised supporting role in Finding Neverland and her lead in Eternal Sunshine. Considering that Jim Carrey doesn't have much of a chance to get nominated that on the other hand, though Kaufman movies usually get at least one acting nom, she appears to be the logical choice for Best Actress for this movie. I don't see her winning, but a nom is definitely possible. Kate Winslet has a higher chance than Jim Carrey, in my opinion.

Moreover, I think that a Best Original Screenplay nomination is a given for this movie. I mean this movie was written by Kaufman and it is his writing that makes his movies as good as they are. Therefore, I consider it pretty much impossible that the Screenplay of the movie will be omitted from the nominations list.


I see following nominations for this one:

Best Actress - Kate Winslet
Best Original Screenplay
Best Editing



Kill Bill Volume 2:


Time has passed and Kill Billis just gaining more and more cult status. Is it gaining more award buzz, though? No, not really. The first movie has been shamelessly snubbed at the Academy Awards last year. Will the Academy make up for that mistake? I highly doubt it. The movie was well-received, but it didn't have nearly as much hype as the original which was basically all over the place when it was released. Also the early release date will hurt it. The movie's omission from the National Board of Review doesn't help it either. The only hope for a major nomination is Uma Thurman who deserved a nomination last year already. Maybe the Academy members will come to their senses and reward the actress for her wonderful performance. However, we have to remain realistic and the fact is that the first movie was released in a better time of the year (regarding oscar chances), had more hype, made more at the box-office and yet didn't get much respect from the Academy. Certainly, the calmer nature of the second Volume might be more appealing to Academy voters, but overall this movie is pretty much dead by now.

I see no nominations for this one. However, following nominations would be most likely:

Best Actress - Uma Thurman
Best Score
Best Editing
Best Sound Editing



The Passion of the Christ:


Well, this one is tricky. On the one hand this movie has not been received too well. The opinions are very very mixed on that one, but the general consensus is not a great one. The movie is controversal to say the least. On the other hand this movie is a great independent achievement and it is hard to ignore a $370 million grosser at the awards. Now Mel Gibson is going a tricky way with this one. He proclaimed that no advertising for the movie will happen because the awards is not what he made this movie for. Obviously, this is reversed psychology advertising in the end. As I said earlier, one pre-September movie usualy gets nominated. But this movie won't be it. I highly doubt that a movie that has 37% at the Cream of the Crop at RT will ever be able to garner a Best Picture nomination. I see it getting a couple of nominations, but no major ones (the only slight chance would be Best Director considering Mel Gibson's achievement and the risk he has taken with this undertaking).

I see following nominations for this one:


Best Cinematography
Best Score
Best Sound
Best Make-Up



Shrek 2:


Well, sure it made $400+ million domestically but I don't see anything beyond a Best Animated Film nomination for this one. The last (and only) animated film to be nominated for an Oscar as Best Picture was The Beauty and the Beast. Since then even much better reviewed animated movies like Toy Story 2 and Finding Nemo failed to get a Best Picture nomination. Shrek 2 won't be much different. The only chance it has is to get a Screenplay nomination since Finding Nemo got one as well as far as I remember. But at the moment, I don't see that happening either, much rather would that go to The Incredibles. Furthermore, a Best Song nomination is possible for this one as usually in a year with big animated movies, these movis get their songs nominated.



Spider-Man 2:


Undoubtfully this movie has been received much better than its predecessor. But how many oscar nominations can a movie based on a comic book get? Hardly any. The only 95% lock is the Best Visual Effects category. The first was nominated in it and the second movie's effects are even much better. Furthermore, this is the most successful movie of the year containing visual effects, therefore a nomination should be prety much a lock.

I see following nominations for this movie:

Best Visual Effects
Best Sound
Best Sound Editing



Troy:


This movie was a let-down financially and quality-wise (I liked it, though). Though it wasn't hated by the reviewers as Alexander was, it is not exactly a frontrunner for the oscars either. However, Alexander's huge failure gives Troy a better shot at more technical noms as Troy is the best-received epic of the year now. There is also a chance at Best Supporting Actor by Peter O'Toole, but considering the overall consensus about this movie, I'd rule it out at the moment.

I see the following nominations for it


Best Sound
Best Set Design
Best Costumes



Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban:


Best movie of the series, but that doesn't say much for the nominations. I see some technical nominees, but that's about it. Even as for Visual Effects it might struggle to get a nom since the competition is pretty strong in this department this year.

I see following possible nominations for this movie:


Best Make-Up
Best Set Design
Best Visual Effects (even though this one is rather unlikely)



Fahrenheit 9/11:


This one is iffy too. It has a lot of controversy surrounding it. The question is if it is too controversal...The Best Documentary nom woud have been a lock, same for the win, but the movie is no longer eligible for that. I also don't think that it will qualify for a Best Picture nomination. In the end, this movie IS a documentary and I doubt we'll see the day on which a Documentary will get nominated for Best Picture. Furthermore, the movie kind of failed to achieve its goal (Bush was re-elected). However, out of all pre-September movies this year, this one belongs to those that have a better chance at a nomination.

This is the only likely nomination Isee for this movie right now:

Best Editing



The Terminal:

Hmm...so far, I can't remember a single Steven Spielberg movie that didn't at least get one oscar nomination. Will the pattern change this time? Most likely, since I do not see this movie getting any nominations. Maybe Best Score and Best Set Design, but I doubt even that. This is also going to be Spielberg's least successful movie since Amistad (in the USA as well as internationally). I think the movie would deserve a Best Set Design nomination. It has a shot at Best Score because John Williams did the score for it and he almost always gets nominated. In the end, it won't be a movie that will make much buzz during the awards, though.



The Ladykillers:


The Coens = good quality movies, but no oscars. It is almost a rule (Fargo is an exception that proves the rule). The movie belongs to Coens' rather average outings. Much better ones ended up getting no noms. The only realistic shot it has is Irma P. Hall for Best Supprting Actress since she won that one at Cannes, but I think it is really doubtful.

No oscar nominations for this one.



Super Size Me & Touching the Void:


At this point these two are locks for Best Documentary nominations and I believe that one of these two will be the winner.



Before Sunset:


Great reviews, but it was released a little to early and it doesn't seem like it could mantain good legs and have a decent gross needed in order to stay to stay in memory of the Academy members. It is another omission of a very well-reviewed movie from the National Board of Review, probably resulting from the fact that it was released at a very early point of the year. Furthermore, even the Independent Spirit Awards didn't nominate it for anything besides its Screenplay. All these signs are not good. However, I don't think that it'll be completely ignored. Either it'll just get a Screenplay nom or it'll turn out as this year's Thirteen. Another contender for that spot is Garden State.

I see following possible nominations for this one:


Best Actress - Julie Delpy (this is rather a long shot, but not out of the race yet...anyone remembers Whale Rider last year?)
Best Original Screenplay



Dogville:


This one will be forgotten by the time of the nominations, no matter how good it is. The movie is controversal, small and Nicole Kidman gave a performance in a simalr small and controversal Birth only that Birth wasn't released too long ago.

No nominations for this one.



The Day After Tomorrow:


Another movie that is close to a shoe-in for a Best Visual Effects nomination, but that's obviously it.


Collateral:


The movie got great buzz upon its release in August, but then it became a bit quiet around this movie. The reviews were good, especially praising the performances of Tom Cruise and Jamie Foxx. The fact that Jamie Foxx is getting buzz for Ray can't hurt the movie either. Moreover, Michael Mann is well-known for quality movies. Nonetheless, it appeared rather unlikely that the Academy would give a Best Picture nomination to a dark and gritty hitman blockbuster. But this week's National Board of Review certainly revived the movie's chances by naming Michael Mann the Best Director of the year and giving Collateral the 9th spot of the best movies of the year. Does it mean that it is a lock for major noms? No, by far not. I wouldn't be too hasty proclaiming this movie a sure candidate. Remember last year's The Last Samurai. That movie was mentioned by NBR as well and the NBR gave its director Best Director of the year. The movie ended up being snubbed by the Academy. Despite that fact, Collateral's chances are better. In contrast to The Last Samurai, Collateral was much better received by the reviwers (80+% at RT vs. 63% at RT) and last year The lLast Samurai had to fight off better reviewed "epics" like Return of the King and Master and Commander. As I said before, a pre-September movie usually gets nominated and by all means, at the moment this appears as the most likely contender. It has great reviews and ongoing appreciation by the audiences and the critics going for it.

Having said that I still doubt that it will get nominated. This year, I don't see a single pre-September movie being nominated. But as I said, out of all, this one DOES stand the best chance so far. And even if it doesn't snatch a Best Picture nomination, it will certainly get other nominations. Overall this movie reminds of Hanks' Road to Perdition which opened with about the same as Collateral and finished with about the same. Both star Hollywood's biggest box-office magnets playing against the type. Road to Perdition also got good reviews and ended up with six nominations which did not include Best Picture or Best Director, though. Collatral might go a similar path.

I see following possible nominations for this one:

Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Sound
Best Sound Editing
Best Original Screenplay
(Best Picture (if some of the upcoming movies turn out as rather weak) )



Garden State


The movie generated some buzz upon its release, but this buzz died down rather quickly. The movie hasn't made a huge impact at the box-office. In fact it has never got into the TOP 10 on any weekend. On the other hand, the same happened to In The Bedroom which was still nominated for Best Picture and four other Awards. However, In the Bedroom was eleased around the awards season unlike Garden State. Certainly the DVD release of the movie will remind some AMPAS voters of this movie, but it is unlikely that the movie will receive any major nominations. The best major shot it had was Natalie Portman for Best Supporting Actress, but she is probably going to be nominated for Closer. Garden State is another eraly release this year that despite the high acclaim by the critics wasn't included in the National Board of Review. I don't think that it hurt it too much since the movie didn't have many chances to begin with. As I stated above ther is still a chance that Garden State will turn out as this year's Thirteen, but it is unlikely. Garden State's best acting shots, Natalie Portman and Peter Sarsgaard both have more recent and acclaimed movies out now, Closer and Kinsey and these are the ones, they'll probably get nominated for. At the moment, I see Garden State being pretty much snubbed with the exception of Best Original Screenplay.

I see following nominations for this one:

Best Original Screenplay



Sideways:


This movie is definitely the best-reviewed movie of the year. Nonetheless, I don't think that this movie is anywhere near a lock for a Best Picture nomination at the moment. The movie is just too low-profile, just too small right now to have a good shot at a nomination. I think it is comparable to last year's American Splendor. That movie ended up with 95% at RT and became one of the year's best-reviewed movies. Nonetheless, it was pretty much snubbed at the Oscars. Coincidentially, both movies star Paul Giamatti who is the king of indies nowadays.

Sideways is not really a "cast movie" and it's also not this year's "big drama". Payne's last movie also had a lot of critics' appreciation to back it up and it had a bigger star with Jack Nicholson and a bigger box-office gross to boast about and yet it didn't get a Best Picture nomination. There is a chance that this movie will turn out as this year's Lost in Translation, but I only see that happening if some other upcoming oscar contenders turn out weaker than expected and fall out of the race. At this point, I consider a Best Picture nomination for Sideways as rather unlikely. The movie is just too low-profile at the moment, as far as the cast, the box-office gross and the theme of the movie go.

Nonetheless, I am sure that the movie won't be completely snubbed. The definite oscar chances of Sideways are hard to determine at the moment as we still have many contenders to be released, but the inclusion in the National Board of Review as well as the win at the Gotham Awards and multiple noms at the Independent Spirit Awards gave the movie a huge boost that it needed. It is definitely in the TOP 10 of Best Picture contenders right now, but not quite in the TOP 5 yet. However, I think that Alexander Payne will be rewarded for this movie at least with a nomination, especially if the movie itself doesn't get nominated. However, IF the movie gets nominated for Best Picture, Payne might be snubbed like it happened to the rather low-profile In the Bedroom. The movie was nominated, the director snubbed. I doubt that both will be nominated at the same time.

I see it getting following possible noms at the moment:

Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress - Virginia Madsen
Best Supporting Actor - Thomas Haden Church
Best Editing
Best Score
Best Director - Alexander Payne


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This was Part I of my 2004 Oscar Analysis. I'll post the second part in the upcoming days. In the second part I will take a closer look at the oscar chances of many foreign movies released this year like A Very Long Engagement, The Motorcycle Diaries, Bad Education, The Sea Inside, Maria Full of Grace etc. as well as this year's biggest contenders The Aviator and Finding Neverland. Stay tuned


Now, Loyalfromlondon is free to bash my analysis

I think John Williams would first get a nomination for his score on Harry Potter than even being considered for the score of The Terminal, which was rather mediocre.

Meh, I look over that whole list and feel like the big punches in best film aren't among those. Eternal Sunshine was well received, but long out of memory by now. And the director is an unknown, its not Spike Jonze. So Kaufman might get a script nod, but that's it.

Aviator? I had expected more hoopla around Finding Neverland, but I think the promo and to a lesser extent the movie, fell a little flat. I dunno...this is going to be one of those Secrets and Lies year where a really obscure movie gets snuck in under best picture nom purely because there really aren;t five biggies to even fill the spots. Before Sunset? Maybe too small. So Eternal, despite bad release, might get something. Hmmm.....

I agree, I don't understand this list especially as this is the order of the analysis. Kindof seems all over the place.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spoteless Mind:
Kill Bill Volume 2:
The Passion of the Christ:
Shrek 2:
Spider-Man 2:
Troy:
Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban:
Fahrenheit 9/11:
The Terminal:
The Ladykillers:
Super Size Me & Touching the Void:
Before Sunset:
Dogville:
The Day After Tomorrow:
Collateral:
Garden State
Sideways

i think its an analyses of what's been released up to date. We can't very well talk about how good the movies are and how the critics or audiance received them for movies that have yet to be released. I think we're going to be adding to this list, but I was just commenting on what a lackluster year this has been

Usually I have a couple faves at this point (Decemeber) so that I can at least be *crushed* when they weren't nomineted because of early release dates or something. But I hadn't realized the Docs I saw this year that I loved where out of it, and as far as feature films, Alexander, Troy, Sky Captian, Neverland, LadyKillers, and the Terminal all fell short of my expectations in quality and support. Its just been a seriously piss-poor year for big movies, and I know they aren't going to have Best Film nods to all movies that made under 15 million. Even if they are the best ones this year.

I'm just waiting for the December squeeze, there had better be alot of excellent movies coming out in the next three weeks is all I have to say.

I think you people should read the bottom part of the Analysis. It is the first part of it because the whole thing basically wouldn't fit in one post. And yes, in this part I am basically taking a look at all pre-September releases (with the exception of Sideways).

Great analysis! I can't wait to read part 2.

Come on Lec. 8)

I actually agree with most of your analysis.

The geek in me would love to see Kill Bill Volume 2 get honored for the opus it is with BP and acting noms but it was seemingly released eons ago. Same for Eternal Sunshine.

I would need to see large support by the guilds, Golden Globes, major critic awards, before I declear Collateral in the BP Race. Like you, I can see 5 or 6 tech nominations and maybe even a few wins.

Any chance of noms beyond Best Animated Feature for Shrek 2 disappeared with the release of The Incredibles.

I think The Passion will be shut out completely.

Before Sunset is in the running for a screenplay nomination (adapted I guess because it's based on previous material), as are Garden State, Eternal Sunshine, Sideways, Kill Bill Volume 2, Million Dollar Baby, Aviator, Spider-Man 2, and maybe even The Incredibles.

I was just kidding. It's just fun arguing with you over stuff like that, heh.

As for The Incredibles...for my next analysis I need to know...does it have a good song that might get nominated for Best Original Song?

I love to argue over these films as if I'm up for the award.

An animated film without a song or a flashy Randy Newman score. Yeah, that's The Incredibles.

You've got to be kidding...

It's the highest selling score of the year and it has technical accomplishments up the ying yang that eclipse Troy and Alexander.

I can see someone saying no to Picture, DIrector, Screenplay, maybe some actor awards, but completely shut out? No way.

Think about why it's the highest selling score of the year. If churches brought the Pootie Tang soundtrack by the crate, it would be a best-seller too.

Technical accomplishments? Did we watch the same film?

But see... money and wealth and sales figure MATTER when you are talking about nominees.



Make-up? Set design? Costumes? Cinematography? Of the movies that are considered "epic", this has been the best film of the year in that regard. Yes, last year's Lord of the Rings, Master & Cmmander, and Pirates of the C would have moped the floor with Passion, but it's not like it will be competing against Sideways in the Make-up category.

A possible absence of juggernauts still doesn't equal instant gold.

The AMPAS would sooner nominate Hellboy, Harry Potter, and Dawn of the Dead before giving any type of recognition to The Passion for something like make-up.

How do you even show clips for any of the categories?

Wow, that crucifixion looked great. Let's all clap.

And don't forget, Gibson made the film outside the studio system. It's not like any of that wealth came back home.

Great analysis Lecter! I'm looking forward to the rest, since those are more "Oscar bait" films, I guess you could say.

Thanks.

I hope that the second part will be up later today. The whole thing will consist of three parts. The second one will be mostly concentrated on the foreign flicks.

Maybe not instant gold, but an instant nominee.

Maybe Potter, but with the other two you are reaching.


Why, it's perfectly acceptible nominee.

Some categories don't have clips, some have short clips. You have not seen the bloody Jesus on TV? I've seen it before. Yeah they are not going to show the whipping but it's not like it is endlessly gory.

He still used guilded actors, cinematographers, editors, musicians, etc. to produce the film. It's not like these people are expressly tied to the studio system like an artist would be at the Grammy's.

Peter Jackson winning the Oscar for Lord of the Rings makes his Universal funded picture called King Kong a bigger commodity.

So yes, indirectly, it does bring the wealth to other projects.

Pretty good and well thought out analysis....

Although I think David Carradine getting nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Kill Bill is more a likely nod than Uma or Winslet in Lead Actress!

And don't get me started on Potter...

Potter is the best art film of the year.

It deserves to win:

Cinematography
Score - John Williams
Art Direction

And it deserves to also be nominated in:

Best Visual Effects
Make-up
Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay (this one is a little questionable, but it's a weak year!)

But it will probably not get any of those... *sigh*.

Rick Baker has been nominated 10 times and won 6 Oscars. I wouldn't rule out a win for his work on Hellboy.

I'm not sure why you mentioned PJ. The Lord of the Rings weren't made outside the studio system like The Passion.

Your analysis of Sideways, Dr. Lecter, made me think of something...

What happened to the buzz for the 'snubbed' Paul Giamatti?

Once again (and I haven't seen Sideways, so I can't judge entirely), it appears as though Giamatti, a fantastic actor, will once again be overshadowed by the supporting players (last year Hope Davis even got more attention than he did for American Splendor, it seems).

To those of you who have seen Sideways (this is mainly directed at Libs:wink:), what do you think? Does Giamatti deserve a nomination for his role?

Well, I've seen it :wink:
I think he is pretty good. I'd have to wait till I see all the performances of course, but he should be in the running if we're judging quality.... probably right under or above Johnny Depp this year.

- Glad you are going with 3 parts as 2 probably would have been too incomplete.

- Too Bad, you are late on Part 2 as I was curious to see the foreign films part as I don't see as many nowadays. Well hopefully by tommorrow.

- Also on the Oscars, is there only 1 category for 5 films or do foreign films get nominated anywhere else.

Just his deal with Universal, and a recent winning that is going to make an impact in a career. Oscar wins are good for future projects. It is concievable that The Passion of the Christ winning awards for certain technical aspects can be good for other films made out of the traditional Hollywood system.


As I said, Passion was made with full support and under the rules of the guilds by producers who are established Hollywood. There was no studio funding it, but that hasn't hurt many an "independent" feature in the last 20 years from getting nominations.

At this point, I think you are being a fool by declaring it will be completely shut out, but I guess we will see come nomination time. Until then, I don't think there's anything else I need to say to you :?

My only problem with going for Sideways in anything beyond Screenplay is that there seems to be not much else going for it besides *maybe* a supporting nod. That and I don't think many have seen it. There is no love for this film in the public like there was for Lost in Translation towards the December time frame, and there is not a stand out performance.