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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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 The Aviator: Does anybody think... ...that any other picture other than The Aviator can possibily win this year (in Picture or Director), even at this early date?
If so, tell us why.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 12:29 am |
 
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kypade
Kypade
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:53 pm
Posts: 7908
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l'm begining to think Aviator isnt gonna win...
maybe Million Dollar Baby...(just a feeling l've had for quite a while now...)
not really sure...and l rarely have solid reasoning for anything l say...soo...lets just say l think it'll be upset... 
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:41 am |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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If its even mildly passable, Aviator will get it. It looks excellent, I'm going opening day for sure.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 2:56 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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I do think it's coming down to The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby, especially if the actings for the latter are as good as the buzz says. Clint Eastwood has the sympathy from last year, and he is doing everything in this movie, so I can definitely see a Picture/Director split between the two.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 3:20 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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To be honest, no I on't think so. f I had to name one that has the best chance to win against The Aviator, I'd say Hotel Rwanda.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:19 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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I don't know how much this changes things but I guess Aviator has been moved from December 17 to December 25, opening on a Saturday!
If you ask me, that is a horribke move on part of Box-office... potentially losing around $30-40 million. But I don't know if it plays any differently towards the awards race!
I don't think anything else will win.... no other movie is even close to its buzz and profile right now.... I'd only say Phantom might get there with buzz and profile, but there are enormous doubts on even its nomination, so I wouldn't bet anything on it.
Tghere might be better movies quality-wise, but they won't have as high a profile....
So, if any movie will take it down, that film's buzz must start immediately and keep building until January/February.
If I would have to name a film, it would be Million Dollar Baby.... but at this point.... no, there isn't a film to rvial it.
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:09 pm |
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Maximus
Hot Fuss
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:46 am
Posts: 8427
Location: floridaaa
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I hope the Aviator wins best picture myself.... and I don't know about other contenders enough, sadly. I kinda hope Phantom has a chance, but I know, unlikely....
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:36 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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The things is...if it weren't a Scorcese film it'd have almost no chance of wining, and even being nominated might be a struggle.
So it depends on that, do they want to give it best picture to reward Scorcese, or go with something else?
I don't think it's a lock at all.
_________________ Best Actress 2008
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:04 pm |
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kypade
Kypade
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:53 pm
Posts: 7908
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Raffiki wrote: So, if any movie will take it down, that film's buzz must start immediately and keep building until January/February.
l think that's exactly what's gonna happen with Million Dollar Baby.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:06 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 18880
Location: San Diego
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Well Gangs of New York was a royal mess and it got nominated, so this will probaly get nominated. I don't think it'll get a win though... Director maybe, that's it.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:42 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Rod wrote: The things is...if it weren't a Scorcese film it'd have almost no chance of wining, and even being nominated might be a struggle.
So it depends on that, do they want to give it best picture to reward Scorcese, or go with something else?
I don't think it's a lock at all. The buzz has been very good. Even if it wasn't directed by Scorsese, I'm sure it will be nominated as well. Scorsese only gives it a frontrunner status very early on, as Gangs of New York got, but by all accounts, the movie is great and much more universally liked than GONY.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:49 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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xiayun wrote: Rod wrote: The things is...if it weren't a Scorcese film it'd have almost no chance of wining, and even being nominated might be a struggle.
So it depends on that, do they want to give it best picture to reward Scorcese, or go with something else?
I don't think it's a lock at all. The buzz has been very good. Even if it wasn't directed by Scorsese, I'm sure it will be nominated as well. Scorsese only gives it a frontrunner status very early on, as Gangs of New York got, but by all accounts, the movie is great and much more universally liked than GONY. Yes, but still (I obviously haven't seen the movie so I can't be sure)..it looks good like Catch Me if You Can was good, the kind of great movie the academy doesn't really go for. Hm... _________________Best Actress 2008
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:53 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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I think it has more drama than Catch me if you can did which was just a lighthearte flick in the end.
By the way, The Aviator stands at 86% at RT right now.
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/aviator/_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:55 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Rod wrote: xiayun wrote: Rod wrote: The things is...if it weren't a Scorcese film it'd have almost no chance of wining, and even being nominated might be a struggle.
So it depends on that, do they want to give it best picture to reward Scorcese, or go with something else?
I don't think it's a lock at all. The buzz has been very good. Even if it wasn't directed by Scorsese, I'm sure it will be nominated as well. Scorsese only gives it a frontrunner status very early on, as Gangs of New York got, but by all accounts, the movie is great and much more universally liked than GONY. Yes, but still (I obviously haven't seen the movie so I can't be sure)..it looks good like Catch Me if You Can was good, the kind of great movie the academy doesn't really go for. Hm... True, but Catch Me if You Can felt light at heart to many people though. It's just a very-well made fun movie like Ocean's 11. The Aviator, on the other hand, seems to have weight in it and could be regarded as an epic. That's probably because it's Scorsese instead of Spielberg, so in that sense, I agree his name definitely has an effect on people's perception about the nature of the movie.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:59 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 05, 2004 12:01 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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The Aviator - 86%
Fresh: 6 Rotten: 1
Average Rating: 7.3/10
The Phantom of the Opera - 83%
Fresh: 5 Rotten: 1
Average Rating: 7.1/10
As long as The Aviator has rave reviews such as these, it will maintain its frontrunner status:
"Scorsese has crafted a rip-roaringly gorgeous-looking, beautifully acted biographical epic that is certain to garner Oscar nominations across the board."
-- Michael Rechtshaffen, HOLLYWOOD REPORTER
"An enormously entertaining slice of biographical drama."
-- Todd McCarthy, VARIETY
"This is Scorsese at his most breathtaking and cinema at its best."
-- Joshua Tyler, CINEMABLEND.COM
"Fantastic! DiCaprio channels Hughes. Scorsese finally breathes life into his muse. "
-- Victoria Alexander, FILMSINREVIEW.COM
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| Sun Dec 05, 2004 12:09 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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The Phantom of the Opera only has like 2-3 real reviews so far. Others are some DVD reviews of other versions that wrongfully got there. I wouldn't take them into account.  _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 05, 2004 12:12 am |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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See what I mean...entertaining...fun, gorgeous-looking, those are words that keep coming up again and again.
And it doesn't tell the whole story. Looking at The Hollywood Reporter's review you'd think it thinks the world of it. Yet take a look at another excerpt from the review"
"Scorsese has crafted a rip-roaringly gorgeous-looking, beautifully acted biographical epic. But while firing on all cylinders, there's something oddly distancing about the picture."
_________________Best Actress 2008
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| Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:19 pm |
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