Finally

Thanks Passionhead

I don't think Passion is a great movie. I think it's decent.

I am just not stupid, it will get a nomination.

When did you turn into such a turd loyal?

Passionhead is a compliment. Certainly much better than being called a turd.

It's just that I'm not clueless enough to think The Passion will get nominated.

Much like andaroo, I don't believe that it'll be shut out completely, but I expect no more than 2-3 noms for that.

I am typing the second part right now.

Type faster. :wink:

I think it will get shut out. For the pure fact that the Academy already lost alot of sleep over Bowling for Columbine, and that wasn't nearly so polarizing as this moive was. Its the same reason F9/11 won't see a nod (even if it could). Columbine was, in the end, some guy ruminating on poor kids getting shot in high school. Took a couple easy punches at Heston, but that's about it.

Passion is deeply religious and not necessarily something the Academy wants to directly associate itself with (indirectly is a different thing though, since from now on studios will fight to be the distributers).

There is no way to give Passion a nod, even for costume or sound editing or set design or whatever, without people assuming you are supporting the content (not just the production) of this movie. Way too many people would be pissed. If it gets anything it will be the smaller awards that are given out the day before (hush hush) and barely get mentioned on the big night.

I can't imagine Passion not getting a Cinematography nod. That one is basically a lock. For documentaries such as Bowling for Columbine and F9/11, the only category outside picture they have a chance is Editing, but for Passion, there are quite a few more, so I don't see it getting shut out.

I was going to dedicate a thread to The Passion but I wanted to add to what Dolce said, so I'll just post here.

Assuming The Passion doesn't get nominated for Best Picture, here are the pecentages of former nominees in 5 tech categories who weren't nominated for BP.

38.3% of Editing nominees had no nomination for BP
61.5% of Cinematography nominees had no nomination for BP
66.7% of Art Direction nominees had no nomination for BP
73.1% of Costume nominees had no nomination for BP
74.6% of Makeup nominees had no nomination for BP

Looks like the best chances for The Passion lie in Makeup and Costume, neither being particularly strong for The Passion.

I think the following films could be in competition for some of the tech awards.

The Aviator - Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume
Troy - Costume, Art Direction,
Alexander - Cinematography, Costume
Phantom of the Opera - Art Direction, Costume, makeup
House of Flying Daggers - Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume, Editing
Collateral - Editing, Cinematography
The Terminal - Art Direction
Kill Bill Volume 2 - Editing, Cinematography
Hellboy - Makeup
F 9/11 - Editing :wink:


Harry Potter 3, Spider-man 2, and The Village could also have a showing depending on studio support.

The Time Machine was nominated for Best Make-Up. If that could be nominated then The Passion can be nominated as well.

Makeup is a rare category that doesn't need 5 nominees. Rick Baker is in for his work on Hellboy.

That could leave one single slot, possibly 2. And with several large late season films competing (Flying Dagger, Aviator, Troy, Alexander...), why on earth would the AMPAS bother with such a lightening rod of a film in such a small category.

Like I mentioned before, "wow, that crucifixion looked great, let's nominate them", pretty much goes against the entire voting nature of the AMPAS.

Makeup is one of the most screwed-up categories when come to nominations, along with Sound Effect Editing. Nobody is a lock, considering Planet of the Apes wasn't nominated.

There were 2 eligible films that year!

The other option would have been to...nominate Frida. :wink:

I could easily see Passion shut out. I do think it deserves best cinematography, and best score...and I think its strongest chances ARE probably in those two categories.

Planet of the Apes was snubbed. The makeup was just as good, probably better. The movie was better liked (heh). So Passion could very easily be snubbed. It depends on what films end up being eligible this year.

I do feel confident about a score nomination though.

During the last two years alone, 4 of the 5 Best Score nominees weren't nominated for BP. Historically, 73.4% of Best Score nominees weren't BP nominees.

Interesting...

Come on, The Passion Of The Christ won't be completely shut out. It may miss out on the major categories, but it will get nominated somewhere. I would compare it to My Big Fat Greek Wedding, an independent film that was hugely successful and produced by a major Hollywood star, Tom Hanks along with Rita Wilson. It had mediocre reviews, but Hollywood couldn't ignore it's box office. It was nominated for screenplay.

Come on, Lecter, where is Part 2? :wink: This week is kind of a boring week since no critics group is giving out awards, so I'm basically waiting to read your analysis before all the actions next week.

Next week

Boston Film Critics - Dec. 12 Sunday
Golden Globe Noms - Dec. 13 Monday Morning
NY Film Critics Circle - Dec. 13 Monday Mid Morning
San Francisco Film Critics - Dec. 13 Monday
BFCA Critics' Choice Noms - Dec. 15 Wednesday
Toronto Film Critics - Dec. 15 Wednesday
L.A. Film Critics - Dec. 18 Saturday

Why were there only two eligible films?

Still not up yet, very disappointing but not unexpected either. Hopefully one day.

Yeah, I agree - I'm a little bit disappointed of Dr. Lecter's behaviour! :?

But you already mentioned it: not unexpected... :?