It's weird in retrospect they once nominated Up and Toy Story 3, it seems impossible in modern day they would even consider CGI films in modern day. Soul came out in shit covid year and I don't think it was even considered in the race.

Inside Out was definitely in the running. But I think that Pixar was the only studio to ever have the kind of clout to get into the BP race, and they squandered it with Cars 2/Monsters U etc.

I do find it odd that Lion King wasn't nominated.

Is there any category locked?

Supporting Actor is it.

Cate won best actress at the BAFTAs and actor went to Butler. Yeoh and Cate its neck and neck but think Butler's pulling ahead here. Looks like another The Wrestler and Mickey Rourke type situation is brewing for Fraser.

I still think Colin Farrell gets the Oscar but the sag will be what seals the deal for the three way horse race

I was searching for a Best Picture winner all year that could at least kind of fit this year's biggest political subject which was Ukraine, and All Quiet is actually not a bad fit. The voters would be a bit confused since you could argue Zelenskyy's position is actually the opposite of Bruhl's character, but nonetheless. You think it could have hit Best Director nomination if it had a chance, though.

A comparison for Zelensky would be Foch, not Daniel Brühl's character. Brühl's character will be Dmitry Peskov or Sergei Shoigu or Dmitry Medvedev later this year or next when Russia will be on the verge of an embarrassing loss.

Early prediction:

Butler will take best actor in 2023's Oscars.

Fraser will take best supporting actor in 2024's Oscars for Killers of the Flower Moon.

Don't think he has enough here to win but goodwill will carry forward as KOTFM is supposed to have a lavish push at Cannes in 2 months. Martin + Leo + DeNiro all together again. DeNiro could be a dark horse if he's in the supporting category since he hasn't won in 43 years by next year.

I'm sure All Quiet on the Western Front won't be as successful at the Oscars as it was at the Baftas.

Random stat:

Only two movies in history have won three acting Oscars:
1) A Streetcar Named Desire” (1951): Vivien Leigh, Karl Malden, Kim Hunter
2) Network” (1976): Peter Finch, Faye Dunaway, Beatrice Straight

If Everything Everywhere does it, will become the third. If it wins the best picture Oscar as well, it will be the winningest actor movie ever out of best picture Oscar winners since Desire and Network lost BP.

Feels like everything is locked for EEAO.

Only two categories are still without a clear frontrunner.
Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. But then again EEAO can't sweep all of the acting categories so I feel either Miclle wins or JLC wins in a "celebratory" oscar win

Bit this SAG win for JLC could mean spliting votes at the oscars with Angela Basset (legacy win) and Hsu (same movie) leading to a Kerry win.

What's #2 behind EEAAO?

I have some type of dream that enough people like TGM that it's consistently top 3 on ballots that it can somehow squeak something out if EEAAO somehow doesn't pull it off.

The Banshees of Inisherin is almost certainly number 2.

2nd would have to be one of the movies that did well at BAFTAs in Banshees or All Quiet

I don't think Actor has a more clear frontrunner than Actress.

Would Andrea Riseborough winning be bigger than a Marissa Tomei My Cousin Vinny moment?

Not likely to happen but the Oscars always seem to now have a WTF moment so let's see what happens.

WGA went to EEOA. Yeah guys wrap this race.

It's been wrapped for awhile. Nothing from the oscar bait crop stood out this year and it was either EEAAO or a Spielberg legacy win.

Final moments of Oscar voting and Yeoh had to post on Instagram mentioning Cate and potentially breaching Academy rules. She has deleted her post but such a dumb move when you have the momentum on your side.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/mich ... 235546912/