I know, I know, we are pretty early in THIS year, yet I decided to create this thread as an early outlook on 2006 which will bring us some of the most anticipated sequels in a while along with one of the longest-planned new adaptation of a comic book - Superman. Among others are films like Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Mission: Impossible 3, X-Men 3, The Da Vinci Code, Pixar's Cars the next Bond film and Ice Age 2. Maybe, even though I don't believe it, we might see another Indiana Jones film in 2006.

Considering all this, I expect big things for 2006's boxoffice.


The Big Guns:


Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Release Date: July 7th):


This is a certain hit. No matter if it'll disappoint some here by grossing less than the original or not, this movie is an assured hit to begin with and a great contender for the 2006 box-office crown. The original cast is returning and that is already a plus point. The first film received immesnly great WoM. I know people who saw it many times in theatres even though they normally go no more than 5 times a year to theatres. The WoM carried this movie to $305 million, a feat that no one has seen for this movie coming. Most of the WoM based on Johnny Depp's performance in this movie. While I agree that it wasn't for Johnny Depp that people stormed into this movie in the beginning, I still think that it was Johnny Depp who was the reason for those great legs. His performance received an Oscar nomination. The movie itself could score 5 noms from the Academy, the biggest being Johhny Depp's Best Actor nom, though. While Johnny Depp lost there, his performance will still be the most remembered performance from 2003 and expect that to be one of the big draws for the sequel.

Pirates of the Carribbean has proven that there is a lack of good adventure flicks out there and National Treasure has proven that again. The demand is there, just not enough supply. Among other things that will assure the success for the second movie. What really helped the first movie, though, was the fact that it was ACTUALLY a good movie that had great WoM. Johnny Depp's performance in it was more or less unique. The sequel can't benefit from that. I know that there are good sequels being made, but for each good sequel there are five bad ones. Pirates of the Caribbean was a unique and unexpected hit and I don't think that the sequel (which has quite a stupid subtitle) can repeat or come anywhere close the original's legs. Surely, it will open big, REALLY BIG, considering that it is opening on a Friday and that it has gained a huge following while it was still in theatres and even more on DVD. It will also certainly receive a lot of marketing paried with a huge 4,000+ theatre count. The first movie benefited from repeat viewings a lot, I doubt the same will happen to Pirates of the Caribbean 2. I expect the film to be big and possibly rule the summer 2006, but not to live up to the original's gross.


My early predictions:

Opening weekend - $96 million

Total gross - $280 million


X-Men 3 (Release Date: May 5th):


Another surefire hit here. While we are experiencing an assault of comic book adaptations recently, only two franchises have been spawned out of them so far and those are X-Men and Spider-Man. We all know that the Spider-Man franchise is one of the biggest if possibly not the biggest moneymaker franchise out there. However, it was X-Men that brought us this wave of Marvel movies. X-Men opened back in 2000 to over $50 million and finished with $157 million resulting in a very decent hit. Two years later, the sequel titles X2: X-Men United surprised everyone with a huge $85+ million opening and finished with around $215 million. It was the 4th biggest opening weekend of all time back then that X2 has achieved.

The movie received great reviews with most of them praising it to be the best superhero film ever made and X2 even spent many months in IMDB's all-time TOP 250 positioned higher than both Spider-Man films has ever made to. Needless to say that X2 is an overall beloved comic book adaptation. The second sequel has claimed the same release date as X2 had, the first weekend of May which is well known for movies getting huge theatres counts and opening really big. Even Van Helsing opened to $50+ million on that weekend despite a darker theme and horrible reviews.

X2's legs weren't great however. That is mostly due to The Matrix Reloaded opening 2 weeks after it. The Matrix Reloaded was undoubtedly a box-office monster during its opening and hurt all movies released before it, most of all X2, though considering that they targeted the same audiences. X-Men 3 will have to fight off The Da Vinci Code which of course will be big, but certainly not as big as The Matrix Reloaded to hurt X-Men 3 that much. One thing that might hurt X-Men 3, though, is that it will be getting a new director. The quality of X-Men movies was mostly due to Bryan Singer, the films' helmer who left the franchise for Superman. It'll be hard for X-Men 3 to live up to the predecessor's quality, especially without the original director. However, one thing is assured for X-Men 3 and that is that it'll open huge. X-Men is an ever-growing franchise with a huge fan-base which extends beyond the comic book fans. The opening weekend is the first weekend of the summer and blockbusters open around that time with virtually no competition to hurt them.


My early predictions:

Opening weekend - $97 million

Total gross - $245 million



Mission: Impossible 3 (Release Date: Summer 2006):


Well, this is probably my personally most anticipated film for 2006 as I am a big fan of the franchise. This can be considered another surefire hit as I don't see what should prevent it from being just as big as its predecessors. It is the American version of the Bond franchise only that it'll always be bigger than Bond. Both Mission: Impossible movies are the most successful flicks of Cruise's career. Both are placed third in their respective years. The first film made around $181 million back in 1996, the second around $215 million in 2000 becoming the biggest movie of the summer in that year. Cruise is a definite draw, even moreso than Hanks. Even though his films don't always become huge hits they usually cross $100 million despite their dark nature (Collateral) or R-rating mixed with bad WoM (Vanilla Sky). However, the biggest draw he is in Mission: Impossible films. The both films of the franchise couldn't be more different. The first had a good, even though overcomplicated polot with litte actual action while the second had breathtaking action, but a plot that you could write down on a bubble gum wrapping paper. Both succeeded, though. The second movie wasn't exactly loved the the reviewers, but the audiences liked it, giving the film decent legs.

The first two outings of the franchise were directed by John Woo and Brian de Palma. The third is being taken over by J.J. Abrams who has spy experiences with his popular TV show Alias. The film has also a good cast to boot so far with Scarlett Johansson, Kenneth Branagh and Carrie-Anne Moss. The first two movies had 5-day opening weekends, therefore I expect the same for the third. There is a lack of big and decent action flicks out there at the moment and the franchise is very well-known. Also the fans have to wait 6 years between the second and the third movie which just raises the anticipation. That all will help the opening for certain.


My early predictions:

Opening weekend (5-day) - $110 million

Total gross - $256 million



Cars (Release Date: June 9):


I'll keep this short. This is Pixar and Pixar means a definite hit. Besides that it opens in the summer and seems to be the year's biggest CGI animated film. The Incredibles is on track to make $265+ million after a November opening, Finding Nemo made $340 million in the summer. Cars has a rather bad teaser to be honest and I don't think that it'll have Finding Nemo's amazing reviews and the needed mass appeal. But it is summer and summer weekdays paired with Pixar's name (which will receive another boost after The Incredibles winning the Best Animated Picture Oscar) will propell this film to a huge box-office and a very possible pole position (no pun intended ) of the summer.


My early predictions:

Opening weekend - $78 million

Total gross - $308 million



Superman (Release Date: Summer 2006):


Well, each year at least one of the big guns is ought to disappoint and for 2006 I am going with Superman. Sure, the franchise has a lot going for it and the name Superman is very well-known, but something tells me that it will not be a huge success people expect it to be. Bryan Singer might be a great addition to the crew as the director since he made the X-Men franchise what it is right now, everytime I think of an acclaimed director taking on a risky superhero adaptation, I think of Ang Lee...

The movie will do well, certainly, but I don't think it'll challenge the films I have named above for the top spots of the year. I fear that Superman might be hurt by the overload of superhero films coming out. I mean we have Elektra, F4 and Batman Begins this year, we had Spider-Man 2, The Punisher, Blade: Trinity last year etc. There are a bit too many comic book adaptations coming out. X-Men 3 won't be hurt by that because X-Men is an already estabilished franchise. You could say the same about Superman, but then again, think of the last successful Superman film and when it came out...I expect this one to perform like a casual blockbuster and not a box-office phenomenon.

My early predictions:

Opening weekend - $71 million

Total gross - $185 million



Here is the complete 2006 schedule to be found:

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies.php[color=red]

Other Contenders:



Bond 21 (Release Date: November 2006):


The franchise has been rising constantly, but I am not sure how it'll be affected by a new actor playing Bond. It should do fairly well, on the brandname alone, but I doubt it'll reach Die Another Day's heights.


My early predictions:


Opening weekend - $45 million

Total gross - $145 million



Ice Age 2 (Release Date: March 31):


The first film was liked by most people and still holds the March opening weekend record. It went on and made $175+ million in theatres and did very well on VHS and DVD. Since then the sequel has been in planning. While the CGI animation crown 2006 will belong to Cars, I think this one will do pretty well and might break the March record once again.


My early predictions:


Opening weekend - $55 million

Total gross - $200 million


I purposely left out The Da Vinci Code and Indiana Jones 4 out of my analysis because I don't know too much about the former and doubt the completion of the latter by 2006.

Now it's your turn guys.


Here is the complete 2006 schedule to be found:

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies.php

Is Transformers still a 2006 release with Robert Zemeckis on board?

Not as far as I know. Not sure if Zemeckis is on board, but it is not a 2006 release.

Good analysis Lector. I agree with you on that subtitle for Pirates 2. Dead Mans Chest? What were they thinking. Hopefully it will change.

2006 is going to be an amazing year.

Pirates of the Caribbean 2 - Opening: $75 million, Total: $300 million
X Men 3 - Opening: $80 million, Total: $240 million
Mission: Impossible 3 - Opening: $120 million (5-day), Total: $240 million
Cars - Opening: $68 million, Total: $272 million
Superman - Opening: $65 million, Total: $182 million
James Bond 21 - Opening: $50 million, Total: $150 million
Ice Age 2 - Opening: $55 million, Total: $192.5 million
The Da Vinci Code - Opening: $35 million, Total: $157 million
Indiana Jones 4 - Opening: $50 million, Total: $175 million
Spy Hunter - Opening: $40 million, Total: $120 million

None of these movies (save for Indy) interest me. :-(

Then cross your fingers for Spielberg to finally get the things going after years of promises.

Pirates 2- 90m opening 310m overall 3.4multiplier
X-men 3-93m opening 238m overall 2.5multiplier
MI3- 125m (5-day) 235m overall
Cars- 63m opening 204m overall 3.2multiplier
Superman 52m opening 146m overall 2.8multiplier
James bond 21- 44m opening 140 overall 3.2multiplier
Ice Age 2- 55m opening 208m overall 3.8multiplier
The Da Vinci Code- 53m opening 138m overall 2.8multiplier
Indiana Jones- 50m opening 145m overall 2.9multilpier

The movie, Behind the Mask, is coming out in the summer 2006.

Synopsis:

Based on the new Hannibal Lecter prequel novel from author Thomas Harris, which will center on how Hannibal watched his young sister get killed and eaten by hungry soldiers in war-ravaged Lithuania during WWII. The movie will take place at three pivotal moments of Hannibal's life. It is the fourth book dealing with the Doctor, who first appeared in "Red Dragon," and subsequently in "The Silence of the Lambs" and "Hannibal".


I think it's going to kill the series

What do you think Lecter (assuming that name is from the movie) have you read the book?

Yeah, I have a bad feeling about this one. It might just ruin the series. They should have left it at Red Dragon. It's probably going to do the least out of all of them, too. Unless it turns out to look good, I predict...

Opening: $23 million, Total: $64.4 million

Anyone else think Ice Age 2 might be like Shrek 2? I thought Shrek was good, but not great, just like Ice Age. I'm not calling $440 million, but maybe over $300 million?

I left it out of my analysis in the end because I thought this would do badly anyway. Seriously, this is a contender for the most unneeded sequel of all time. I mean, Red Dragon didn't do too well and that had a great cast (Norton, Watson, Fiennes, Keitel, Hopkins), good reviews and was coming off Hannibal's success. I just hope that people won't even associate that movie with the Lecter franchise.

As for the novel, I don't think it has been published yet :?

Maybe, but Shrek was in everyway bigger than Ice Age. Ice Age 2 I think will gross higher than the first, but I don't think it will reach 300m. 250m, maybe.

Possible, but unlikely. While I personally liked Ice Age even more than Shrek, Shrek appears to be much more beloved. It made it to IMDB's TOP 250 (sitting somewhere in the top 150, I think) while Ice Age came nowhere close.

But in 2003, looking ahead to 2004, would anyone have guessed Shrek 2 would make $400 million honestly?

No one that's why it was a surprise. If we all predict $300 million for Ice Age 2 now and it really makes it, it wouldn't even be a surprise then.

Maybe it will then make like $500 million, and be a real surprise! :wink:

Or it fails to cross $150 million and become another kind of a surprise

Pirates of the Caribean 2:

Opening in over 4400 theaters and scoring an average of 36,000 per theater

Friday: 62.43m New Reord!!!!

Saturday: 53.06m -15%

Sunday: 4r.24m -20%

Opening Wknd: 158m New Record!!!!!

Domestic Total: 348m

Thats a 2.2 multiplyer

X3:

Friday: 46.42m (was the new record a month before pirates)

Saturday: 45.49m -2%

Sunday: 36.39m -20%

Wknd: 128.4m (Was the record the month before pirates)

Domestic Total: 231m

Multiplyer: 1.8

This is how I think the new blockbusters will perform sometime in the future it may not start in 06 but it will start sometime within this decade or sometime early in the next decade.

What are your thoughts :?:

I think that pirates two is going to have better legs than Im predicting with a 3.0 multiplyer that would put it over 470m which is posible of you think of ther performance of shrek/drek 2.

That would be a 36,000 theatre average not 3,600. :sun:

Anyways, I doubt it would get so high. maybe over 100m but not over 150m

sorry about the average i will edit that :wink: anyway this film will open this massively because the firtst film had the best WOM of 03 and some of the best legs of 03 I expect this one to double the first films five day opening in three days there will be much hipe and much good WOM with will save this film from suffering a multiplyer under 2.0 8) Also I said already this is how I expect each blockbuster to perform from now on with very few ever escaping the large opening bad legs trap 8)

Wow, I thought I saw some high predicting, but that tops it all...$158 million in 3 days? That will eventually happen, but not in 2006. There is inflation, but it is not THAT huge. Also, I expect POTC's mutliplier to be higher than 2.5 and for X2 to be at least around 2.5

Doesn't Jurassic Park IV also come out in 2006?