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 May 9-11 Predictions 

Thunderbolts second weekend drop?
80%+ 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
75-79% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
70-74% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
65-69% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
60-64% 33%  33%  [ 2 ]
55-59% 17%  17%  [ 1 ]
50-54% 17%  17%  [ 1 ]
45-49% 33%  33%  [ 2 ]
40-44% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
35-39% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
30-34% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Sub 30% 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 6

 May 9-11 Predictions 
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Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Post May 9-11 Predictions
Clown in the Cornfield 6m
Fight or Flight 4m
Shadow Force 1.5m

Thunderbolts -45%
Sinners -33%


Fri May 02, 2025 8:02 am
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
62%

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Fri May 02, 2025 8:24 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Clown in a Cornfield was so fucking awesome! Very fun and funny! I highly recommend it if you're a horror fan.


Fri May 02, 2025 9:23 am
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Sinners will drop like 20% next weekend. This weekend its dropping just over 25%. There is no way it will drop more next weekend without any opener.

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Fri May 02, 2025 11:18 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
It's crazy to me that there's nothing really aimed at moms for Mother's Day weekend. Hopefully the moms that like horror movies decide to fuck with Frendo. :P


Last edited by Magic Mike on Mon May 05, 2025 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri May 02, 2025 11:38 am
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Crap weekend... Sinners might do something crazy again.

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Fri May 02, 2025 12:08 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
I hope zwack is right on Clown. I feel like 6 Million would be incredible for it. I'm hoping it does well for an indie horror flick. It sucks that I only ever had the trailer before The Ugly Stepsister. Sinners would have been awesome exposure for it. Did anyone have the trailer in a theater with anything?


Sat May 03, 2025 10:38 pm
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Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
I hope zwack is right on Clown. I feel like 6 Million would be incredible for it. I'm hoping it does well for an indie horror flick. It sucks that I only ever had the trailer before The Ugly Stepsister. Sinners would have been awesome exposure for it. Did anyone have the trailer in a theater with anything?


I’m just wildly guessing the release seems pretty wide but I’d never heard about it till last week lol


Sat May 03, 2025 10:51 pm
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Apparently, Clown is based on a book. $4-6m is possible.

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Sun May 04, 2025 8:04 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
There are 3 books so far, with a 4th possibly on the way. After seeing the movie, I definitely want to read the books.


Sun May 04, 2025 8:12 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
I'll see it if it plays at either of my close theaters, but doesn't look like it will. So will probably do Until Dawn (finally) and maybe the 50th anniversary of Holy Grail this week.


Mon May 05, 2025 12:58 am
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
55~60% drop


Mon May 05, 2025 8:49 am
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
I think Sinners was filmed completely in the US while Thunderbolts and Minecraft were filmed internationally. Would be interesting to see how box office would get affected if ticket prices for Sinners remain the same while prices for the other two suddenly doubled,


Mon May 05, 2025 12:42 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
I dont think you can just do it. I am not sure if its even legal and nothing has even crossed borders. There is no way to put tariff on a digital goods. That way you need to do it for everything like companies using tech workers world wide and how about CGI workers who are also global. Can of worms it will open will kill everything. Not just movies. Companies would rather move out of US at that point.

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Mon May 05, 2025 12:59 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Won't it just apply to the production company? Like, if it was made by Plan B or Universal then it will be considered "American", and if it's made by, say, Huayi Brothers, it will be considered "foreign". Because getting into the specifics of where it was filmed or where the visual FX team was based is crazy and will open up a can of worms as Keyser said.

And then it would be easier to tariff in a sort of "if you want to screen in US cinemas you need to pay a set fee" type thing.

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Mon May 05, 2025 3:47 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
What are we thinking for the next weekend? Thunderbolts* and Sinners especially.

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Tue May 06, 2025 4:50 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Thunderbolts: 34m
Sinners: 25m


Tue May 06, 2025 6:46 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
34.2m for Thunderbolts, 54% drop.

24.8m for Sinners, 25% drop.


Tue May 06, 2025 9:21 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
2,277 theaters for Clown in a Cornfield.


Thu May 08, 2025 5:48 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
-72% from last Friday seems only ok considering lack of competition.

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Sat May 10, 2025 12:37 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
-55% doesn't seem that bad to me when the standard has been 60% for the good ones, 70% for the not so good ones. Guardians 3 was a special case where the opening should have been like $30-40M higher, but it was deflated by the damage that Quantumania did to the brand.


Sun May 11, 2025 1:48 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
21m is a little disappointing for Sinners with nothing else releasing and a theater increase


Sun May 11, 2025 2:01 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
Still can't complain about an over 20 million 4th weekend.

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Sun May 11, 2025 7:03 pm
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Post Re: May 9-11 Predictions
flip1 wrote:
21m is a little disappointing for Sinners with nothing else releasing and a theater increase


Agreed. The competition only gets tougher from here on out.


Sun May 11, 2025 7:41 pm
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