I haven't even seen the Karate Kid trailer, is this going to flop?

Also another mid performing horror in Bring Her Back

I’ve seen a bit of marketing for Karate kid, but can’t tell, is it supposed to be a new movie in the franchise, or is it supposed to just end the cobra Kai show?

It's just using any element attached to Karate Kid in the hope it will produce a hit movie. I don't see it being successful personally.

They needed Jaden fighting the asian kid, but even with that it's been 15 years since that one. Now if you had Jaden AND Will on the other hand you'd have something...

Karate Kid looks bland and they missed by not tying it to Cobra Kai.

However i believe its tracking well enough for at least a $40m ow.

I thought this would be a big deal but doesn't look like anyone really cares. Maybe $30m?

Thinking 56% drop for Lilo and 60% drop for MI.

20-25m OW range for Karate Kid for now.

I hope so cause people are saying it’s a bad movie

Yeah, I've heard that too. It's going to need every dollar OW to have a chance at $100m. I suspect it will fall well short.

Boring weekend. At least Friendship is expanding wider so I'll have something to go see. That didn't open here this past weekend.

I think I was just mistaken about what this movie was. Thought it was Avengers of a the Karate Kod franchise but neither the Cobra Kai people or Jaden are in it? Weak.

Also weak, neither of my close theaters are getting Bring Her Back. Does nobody remember Talk To Me being a hit a few years ago?

Karate Kid looks like missing 20m at this point. Sales are are horrendous and movie is utter crap as well.

Feels as if they had the idea with everyone in it, then Jaden was too busy being a weirdo and Zabka was being protective of his tv ending or something, then instead of scrapping the whole thing they were like, let's just make it anyway. Also I'm picturing if this had been Simu's big non MCU play, could've been the asian kid's dad or Chan's estranged son and former kid martial arts champ or something.

Yeah I just finished Cobra Kai 2 nights ago and would agree with Zabka wanting to end it where they did. It was perfectly wrapped up for all the characters really. Yes they could have continued on with Zabka and Macchio only but I can see why they didnt.

I guess the main hook here is : Kungfu and Karate butting heads and then co-existing I suspect.

At least it has a 45m budget. Would have been nice if it was a hit.

Once again a property going to TV severely waters down the cinematic offerings if and when they return to them. The spark of a reunion/reboot was already achieved with Cobra Kai season one, and the KK universe really found its level when it went to TV. Going back to theatrical always felt weird to me, and I not only think it will disappoint but I hope it does, because it's the only way to keep these greedy dumbass studio execs in check.

Yeah I tend to agree.

The TV show was one big nostalgia trip and it was satisfying. No need for another film. At least not so soon.

Ok. Final day walkups were really great. I am bumping up previews to 2.5m and 25m OW. I think walkups will be great entire weekend.

That's good. I didn't know much about it aside from being a new Karate Kid movie, so my prediction in the May/June contest is ridiculously high. I hope it makes as much as possible.

Yeah, I went to high on the May/June contest too lol so the closer to $30m this can do the better!

Lilo Impossible are -57% bros.

Can we call Karate Kid a flop?

Thunderbolts dream of $200M is probably dead. Sinners still kicking, but I don't think it'll hold theaters long enough to leg out $300M. Would need to still be having $1M+ weekends in July and it'll more likely be on HBO by then.

Lilo being so close to Little Mermaid makes it easy to predict about 450m total.

Based on weekend drops, here is the current final domestic gross trajectory for the major holdovers:

Lilo and Stitch - $391M - but likely to stabilize and gross over $410M
MI: FR - $171M - but likely to stabilize and get over $185M
Final Destination bloodlines - $136M
Sinners - $280M
Thunderbolts* - $191M
Accountant 2 - $66M

Obviously subject to change.

It needs 2.9 multiplier to get to 400, Little Mermaid after the same -57% after Memorial Day had 3.7 which would take L&S to about 450, however Little Mermaid's 2nd weekend was against Spiderverse instead of Karate Kid so Lilo falling 57% is worse performance than it. Little Mermaid had Transformers in 3rd weekend, Flash/Elemental in 4th weekend, and No Hard Feelings in 5th weekend, Lilo and Stitch will have Ballerina this weekend, HTTYD the weekend after, and 28 Years Later/Elio after. Lilo and Stitch's competition is probably worse because of HTTYD. So altogether, I take back my previous post and predict under 450, though I'd imagine it's not in much trouble to be below 400.