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December 6-8 Predictions
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Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Nov 29, 2024 8:30 pm ]
Post subject:  December 6-8 Predictions
The Order -2m
Y2K not sure how wide this is going?

Moana -61%
Wicked -45%
Gladiator -55%
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Werewolves is in over 1,500 theaters, and I'm surprisingly excited for it. When I saw the trailer, I thought it was going to be bad and didn't think I'd watch it, even though I like werewolf movies. But it's been having advanced screenings, and apparently, it's a blast. It's getting mostly rave reviews on Letterboxd. I'm very curious to see what professional critics will say. Unfortunately, it's almost certain to flop at the box office, but if it's really good, it's destined to find a following eventually.

I can't believe we have at least 5 nationwide releases this weekend, which is notorious for pretty much nothing opening. I think The Order is likely in at least as many theaters as Your Monster got. Both were the mystery movie selection, and both are from Vertical Entertainment. If that's the case, that will be 6.

It's definitely a dumping weekend, which is always the case except for when movies like The Last Samurai and Honey opened in the post-Thanksgiving spot, where they actually did well.


The bigger drop is easily going to be from Moana.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Nov 30, 2024 1:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
I wish Y2K was just a teen comedy with Zegler as love interest on Dec 31 99. It would’ve been great fit in the ABY spot.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Nov 30, 2024 1:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
My local 6 screener originally had Y2K up for presale, but decided to keep Wicked, Moana, Gladiator and Red One on all the screens instead. Probably not a good sign.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Nov 30, 2024 1:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Shack wrote:
I wish Y2K was just a teen comedy with Zegler as love interest on Dec 31 99. It would’ve been great fit in the ABY spot.


It's crazy to me that nobody booked a romantic comedy to release over Christmas after the success Anyone But You saw last year. Personally, I think it was a missed opportunity for Universal not to take advantage of this and release Bridget Jones in theaters over Christmas, instead opting for a Peacock release in February. Would it have done ABY numbers? No, but being the only light, comedic fare for adults would have helped it stand out enough that it could have carved out a solid gross.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Dec 01, 2024 6:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
There's a movie called The Invisible Raptor coming out on Friday that sounds amazing. Hope it goes wide, though I doubt it will. Really would love to see a wave of well-made silly movies though. Loved Hundreds of Beavers.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Dec 01, 2024 8:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Flow expands to several hundred theaters this weekend.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Dec 01, 2024 11:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Shack wrote:
I wish Y2K was just a teen comedy with Zegler as love interest on Dec 31 99. It would’ve been great fit in the ABY spot.


It's crazy to me that nobody booked a romantic comedy to release over Christmas after the success Anyone But You saw last year. Personally, I think it was a missed opportunity for Universal not to take advantage of this and release Bridget Jones in theaters over Christmas, instead opting for a Peacock release in February. Would it have done ABY numbers? No, but being the only light, comedic fare for adults would have helped it stand out enough that it could have carved out a solid gross.


Very true. Missed opportunity indeed.

When rom-coms were still strong - both Two Weeks' Notice and Maid in Manhattan had no issue co-existing and combining to $200m at Christmas 2002
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Empire is saying mid 5 for both Wicked and Moana. Moana should win the weekend but Wicked will take it close and could potentially overtake Moana next weekend.

Other thing this weekend is limited Imax release of Interstellar. Tons of sellouts. Lincoln Square has sold out all 24 shows across 6 days(480 seats). Similar story in many other large imax theaters like Metreon, Universal AMC at LA etc. Should probably do 5m+ across the week. its not going to be that far off 200m domestic. Need another week or 2 of this kind of release.

Domestically it underperformed 10 years ago especially its OW.
Author:  lilmac [ Thu Dec 05, 2024 1:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Eventually there will be 6 films above $500M since Spring 2023. Yea, inflation.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Dec 05, 2024 2:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Empire is saying 5m for wicked and 4.3m for Moana 2 for Wednesday. Moana 2 will still win the weekend but its going to be close and next weekend Wicked should be the favorite. Presales for friday at this point, wicked > moana 2 by more than 2x.
Author:  O [ Thu Dec 05, 2024 3:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
lilmac wrote:
Eventually there will be 6 films above $500M since Spring 2023. Yea, inflation.


Still incredible to me that Spider-Man: No Way Home made $814,866,759 with the pandemic still happening. A number of theaters at the time were closed for significant parts of its first few weeks and many adults not yet heading back to theaters before TGM pulled older audiences back.

So we'll never know for sure but I expect there was at least another $50M-100M in box office revenue it could have gotten in normal times. It would have gotten ever so close to End Game because it felt like that type of pop cultural event.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Dec 05, 2024 3:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
No Way Home was a masterclass in marketing. Everyone and their momma knew what was going to happen, but they never showed any of it in the trailers. You had to pay to see Tobey and Garfield.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Deadline is projecting 60m for Moana this weekend 32m for Wicked.
Author:  Steve [ Thu Dec 05, 2024 9:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
O wrote:
lilmac wrote:
Eventually there will be 6 films above $500M since Spring 2023. Yea, inflation.


Still incredible to me that Spider-Man: No Way Home made $814,866,759 with the pandemic still happening. A number of theaters at the time were closed for significant parts of its first few weeks and many adults not yet heading back to theaters before TGM pulled older audiences back.

So we'll never know for sure but I expect there was at least another $50M-100M in box office revenue it could have gotten in normal times. It would have gotten ever so close to End Game because it felt like that type of pop cultural event.

It’s wild to reflect on the success of No Way Home, still a little hard to fathom. And I love the speculating too, but I’m of the mind that part of the movie’s epic success was paradoxically due to the pandemic.

Culturally, collectively, and indvidually, for a year and a half we were all in various states of lockdown, quarantine, social distancing, and the unprecedented disruption to our modern ways of life, created a pent up demand for an escapist, thrilling, old-meets new adventure superhero story that people actually could see in theaters, was a signifcant factor in how completely it captured the zeitgeist and became a cultural event. It more than doubled both of its predecessors in box office, which I don’t think could have / would have happened with “just” the team-up element being the driving factor. Truly a perfect storm, time and place scenario. (I think Too Gun: Maverick rode a similar wave a little later). My two cents
Author:  Thegun [ Fri Dec 06, 2024 2:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
I think 50-55% is fair for everything
Author:  O [ Fri Dec 06, 2024 4:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Thurs #'s From Empire:

Wicked $4.85M
Moana $4.2M
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Dec 07, 2024 5:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
MadGez wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Shack wrote:
I wish Y2K was just a teen comedy with Zegler as love interest on Dec 31 99. It would’ve been great fit in the ABY spot.


It's crazy to me that nobody booked a romantic comedy to release over Christmas after the success Anyone But You saw last year. Personally, I think it was a missed opportunity for Universal not to take advantage of this and release Bridget Jones in theaters over Christmas, instead opting for a Peacock release in February. Would it have done ABY numbers? No, but being the only light, comedic fare for adults would have helped it stand out enough that it could have carved out a solid gross.


Very true. Missed opportunity indeed.

When rom-coms were still strong - both Two Weeks' Notice and Maid in Manhattan had no issue co-existing and combining to $200m at Christmas 2002


Romantic comedies used to be released quite frequently in December, extending their run through Christmas and beyond. Many of these films achieved significant success. Notable examples include Jerry Maguire, As Good as it Gets, You've Got Mail, It's Complicated (which premiered on Christmas Day), What Women Want, Something's Gotta Give, and the two you mentioned. After the success of Anyone But You, it's time to bring this back. Many look for feel good movies during the holidays.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Dec 07, 2024 5:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December 6-8 Predictions
Steve wrote:
O wrote:
lilmac wrote:
Eventually there will be 6 films above $500M since Spring 2023. Yea, inflation.


Still incredible to me that Spider-Man: No Way Home made $814,866,759 with the pandemic still happening. A number of theaters at the time were closed for significant parts of its first few weeks and many adults not yet heading back to theaters before TGM pulled older audiences back.

So we'll never know for sure but I expect there was at least another $50M-100M in box office revenue it could have gotten in normal times. It would have gotten ever so close to End Game because it felt like that type of pop cultural event.

It’s wild to reflect on the success of No Way Home, still a little hard to fathom. And I love the speculating too, but I’m of the mind that part of the movie’s epic success was paradoxically due to the pandemic.


I agree with that.
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