Oz the Great and Powerful opened to adjusted over 100m without the musical’s fan base and on the Oz connection alone.

Not only will it do well in the states, the Wicked Musical is popular around the world. I see minimum 300m OS with potential for more.

Agree. I think $100m is definitely on.

I'm thinking 100m total (in order for me to still have a chance in the draft).

Definitely $100m+ opening.

Nah, Taylor swifts eras was much more hyped and couldn’t do it. Musicals are on the down and grande is popular but that doesn’t mean people will see wicked. Oz looked much more interesting than this and I’m not sure I’m digging the trailers trying to make this look more like a Harry Potter knock off, still should do better than gladiator 2 but Moana will kill it.

Huh? Wasn't Eras a concert tour movie? You can't really compare Wicked to Eras.

I agree, I was more referring to the fact that grande has any pull on this box office wise.

Musicals are very tricky. While some have done extraordinarily well, it's always hard to see how the film will be receieved, and none have ever done over 200 million, but I wouldn't say that's unreachable as of course many have adjusted. Slightly lower than Mama Mia adjusted, which would be about what Wonka made, which isn't as bad as a comparison. But this has much more competition than that, and I think the two part aspect is gonna turn some of the core audience of the musical off. I agree it should be huge overseas.

60-70m

I see Wicked making a play for $300M+ so this could happen but given the 5 day weekend right after feel it's box office will be spread out over its 10 days. Very strong chance to happen though. Every audience I've been in that's seen the trailer has received it well.

I'm torn, the female side of Wickediator should be bigger again, but 80 mil feels more right than 100.

Yeah I'm in for 110m+. Hype is big and women will propel this like Barbie.

Oh and I am in. Ortega has a big fanbase but expect Ariana's to go in full droves here for a big OW. Wouldn't be shocked if it creeps up into a Hunger Games type OW closer to release.

ew, no

No way. MAYBE half of that. Ariana is a popular singer but she's not a cultural phenomenon and totally unproven as a box office draw. Also it's probably going to get mixed reviews because it looks pretty gaudy.

This winter's Frozen. Easy $100m OW.

Wicked is the cultural phenomenon, not Ariana

Broadway success never translates to box office success.

Never lol. Not even once

Is it really? Like it's a popular musical but is it more popular than Les Mis, which did well but wasn't a $100M opener type smash hit?

Obviously No, I’m not saying broadway musicals can’t be big at the movies There have been many hits.I’m saying their success on stage never means anything to the adaptation. Phantom and Cats are about in the same league as wicked in terms of broadway success and both flopped. Grease I think is still the biggest of all time and most hate the actual musical. I’m saying musicals are very tricky to adapt and even some of the best do wildly bad. Its biggest angle is wizard of oz tie in for general audiences.

It can go either way honestly, hardest genre to predict imo.

A big budget Oz film is a much easier sell to general audiences than a period French Revolution movie.