Charlie is saying $5.75M+ previews for BB4 including early shows. Initial audience reception seems to be highly positive. He is $45-50M weekend.

I'm still expecting a big walk up increase here and think it could end up $60M+ over the weekend.

Seems unlikely this is dipping below $35M worst case scenario here so seems a huge win for Will Smith and his comeback.

Good enough for Will to be back

The market is perfectly empty for it so that would have helped. Reviews are solid and audience scores are too. The slap is probably far enough away that it make no difference to the target audience. Perhaps some money is left on the table but performance is good.

It helps that the title is "Bad Boys." This is a buddy action comedy that's R rated. The slap would probably impact Smith's ability to have a movie like Pursuit of Happiness do well or Hitch.

He should make a legit good version of ID4 sequel. He's very smart to do a I Am Legend 2 with Michael B. Jordan as his next big movie sequel.

I was about to say the exact same thing. King Richard or Hitch would be hurt by the slap but not Bad Boys.

I think I Am Legend 2 with Jordan would be best. I think the ship has sailed for another ID4 but if Twisters makes big $$$ then it could be on the cards.

Is a return to salvage the MIB franchise a chance? Or has that ship sailed too. It's been 12 years since the third one.

$5.875m. Sounds good to me.

Should do 50m with that but likely below Apes and the third movie.

Same ratio as the third would have put it at 57.7 though I presume the June midnights multiplier is worse

The slap wouldn't matter regardless of what movie Smith was in. It was years ago.

Charlie is saying 14.5m true friday and about 20.5 OD including previews. OW should just squeak past 50m.

https://x.com/mejat32/status/1799231748909502964?s=46

I'm thinking for Bad Boys 4

Thursday Previews $6 million
True Friday $14.5 million
Saturday $13.3 million (8% drop from True Friday like Bad Boys 3)
Sunday $10.5 million (21% drop from Saturday like Bad Boys 3)

6 + 14.5 +13.3 + 10.5 = $44.3 million opening weekend

Charlie Jatinder updated his estimate to $15.5 million for True Friday. So I will recalculate my guess:

Thursday previews $6 million
True Friday $15.5 million
Saturday $14.9 million (4% drop from True Friday just like Bad Boys 2)
Sunday $12.4 million (17% drop from Saturday like Bad Boys 2)

6+15.5+14.9+12.4 = $48.8 million opening weekend

You can't not include previews with your Saturday and Sunday numbers. It's not going to have a 5 million higher Friday than Bad Boys 2 21 years ago and have a smaller weekend.

55-62 based on a 21.3 million. Has a chance to pass the 3rd, seems like it might be a little more backloaded. Very good start.
Bad Boys 2 adjusts to 247, Bad Boys 3 240. Even though the second's opening adjusts to 83 million, the better reviews have made this a pretty consistent series lately, even if this will see a decent drop off.

It's too bad they didn't push to have Axel Foley go theatrical, could have done very well 4th of July weekend considering the marketplace.

I agree it's a shame Beverly Hills Cop 4 didn't get to have a theatrical run

Bad Boys 2 didn't have box office for Thursday previews (according to the Numbers). So $48.8 million > $46.5 million. I'm still predicting that Bad Boys 4 > Bad Boys 2 for its opening weekend.

Edit: oops I didn't see you say BB2 lolol

Good #s for Bad Boys

Furiosa to finish in the 60s... RIP

Charlie is saying Saturday went up 24% minus previews to about 19.5m. He is seeing 56m+ OW. Solid overall for the 4th movie of the franchise.

BB3 had MLK weekened to inflate it's Sunday so 2day total was $45.3M vs BB4's $41.1M. Unadjusted, its' just 9.3% below the last films first two days.

The demographic breakdown is telling. Slightly more female split, broad age range, and spike in Hispanic/Latino offsetting a drop in Caucasian audience from 30% share to 18%. So 82% of this film's audience is non-Caucasian. So the takeaway may be that non-Caucasian audiences didn't care much about the Oscar slap.

BB3 demographics:
-56% male
-58% under 35, 25-34 year 33%.
-42% African American, 30% Caucasian, 18% Hispanic, and 10% Asian/Other.

BB4 demographics:
-53% male
-50% under 35, 44% 18-34, 26% 25-34 and 26% 35-44
-44% African American, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 18% Caucasian and 12% Asian American/other

In all seriousness, I say combine Bad Boys and Fast and Furious franchises for ultimate smash for this type of minority friendly action movie. Or just loan them the Tyrese and Ludacris characters.

Rush Hour 2 today would adjust to $133.5M (was the #4 OW of all time when it was released) so feel like that film and BP show just how mega blockbusters can be driven by other demos.

Resurgence was shit and probably tanked the franchise for good, but I do wonder how a third Independence Day would do if Smith came back. It'd be very easy to write around his death and I feel like after the slap he'd be more open to it to generate more good will. I feel like the only question would be whether Roland Emmerich would have it in him to make a good movie again.

I Am Legend 2 is already going ahead.

MIB4 (maybe the Jump Street crossover gets another consideration)
ID4 3
Bad Boys 5

Sony and Disney desperately need franchises...

I thought it was 3rd at the time?

Lost World at 72, PoTA at 68mil, and then Rush Hour.

What movie am I missing?

Probably the mummy, though phantom menace kind of screws that whole list because it opened on Wednesday and would have easily had the opening weekend record, I don’t even think potter would have passed it at the time

Very good for bad boys.

Expect I Am Legend and Aladdin sequels to be fast tracked.