Argylle 19m
The Chosen 4m

Argylle 26m
The Chosen 7m

The market is so empty that this shoooould do 20m but the trailer is just not that appealing. If it gets Kingsman 1 reviews and good reception I could see it barely cracking 20m. Right now I'm thinking 17m.

I was expecting more Argylle marketing as an NFL playoffs commercial type of movie but they may have wisely decided not to pour a bunch of money into a possible lemon.

Marketing is poor for Argylle but I think it can add about $5m due to the empty marketplace.

$20m isn't really that hard to reach. I see it doing that with ease due mainly to the marketplace but also because it's a hip, fun, flashy new release. I didn't see shit for Mean Girls and that racked up over $28m.

It it weren't for Argylle, The Beekeeper would probably be #1 for the weekend since Mean Girls is dropping more heavily.

I just read that it cost $150M-$200M?!!

That doesn't even include the marketing budget. This isn't a lock to pass $20M so something went very wrong here. Would need $300M+ to even break even here. If a studio is spending that much they are going to give it a big push, a good release date. Getting dumped first week of February doesn't make me too encouraged that the quality is there but hoping that's not the case for box office sake.

https://screenrant.com/argylle-box-offi ... omparison/

And it was originally straight to AppleTV right...? Lol

Seems like Godzilla is getting pulled out of theaters Friday? Weird to do that if so.

Maybe there is some stipulation that Toho's Godzilla and Hollywood's Godzilla can't coexist in the same multi-verse.

Something in their agreement ensures they avoid overlap in release dates in the domestic market. Still would seem the $$$ opp of using the Minus One goodwill (and high likelihood of a Godzilla skit during the Oscars the same month of the new Godzilla/Kong movie) would be a great promotional tool.

Argylle: $10M


This cost $200M by the way (lol). I think it will permanently demote Henry Cavill from leading man roles. The marketing has been horrible and reviews are awful.

Curious if ABY ever finds a way to make it into the top 3 over the weekend. Here's the current list of the top grossing movies of all time to NOT make the top 3.

1 The Greatest Showman $174,340,174
2 American Hustle $150,117,807
3 The King's Speech $135,453,143
4 Crouching Tiger $128,078,872
5 Life of Pi $124,987,023
6 Seabiscuit $120,277,854
7 Wolf of Wall Street $116,900,694
8 It's Complicated $112,735,375
9 Epic $107,518,682
10 Black Swan $106,954,678

-Anyone But You is at 48th place but could become only the 11th movie to do $100M+ and not make it to the top 3.

Think they should have copied the Lost City's plot and gave Rockwell's role to Cavill as actor/spy. Making you think it's a trailer for a Cavill-Dua-Cena Red Notice type movie and then going "actually it's this BDH and Rockwell author movie" was kind of a bummer.

Argylle is going to bomb big time. There is no acceleration in presales. Horrible reviews are going to nuke walkups. sub 2m previews and < 15m OW at this point.

It's sad that all Argyll needs is a $6M opening weekend to likely still win the weekend.

I do think it's going to get some walk ups from people who have seen everything else. It looks bad but how many times can moviegoers keep seeing the Christmas movies?

Terrible finish for Argylle. Probably 2m ish or slightly below that for previews and low teens OW. Its going to crash post OW as well.

The cast seem in a parallel universe as well as the team behind the film. They are already speculating about sequels. Something tells me if you open a $200M movie to under $15M, sequel talk stops pretty fast.

https://variety.com/2024/film/global/ar ... 235883439/

Well well well, the market is unpredictable.

It's an Apple production so like Napoleon and Killers they threw $200M at it and consider it a loss leader in their quest to start building a library of content to attract subscribers. They are worth almost $3 trillion so it's nothing to them. They may have told the cast a sequel was likely no matter how well it does.

It's the same proportion of their total assets as if Disney (worth $180 billion) wasted $12 million on a movie. They'd think nothing of it. Their CEO pay alone is like four times as much.

The fact Apple can just start throwing mega budget tentpole numbers at random movies because they have so much cash is just another sign that we're in capitalist dystopia. They're more wealthy than most governments. The only thing they don't have over actual countries is a right to an army/law enforcement (for now).

Napoleon, KOTFM AND Argylle in under 3 months with all meh performances despite $200M cost for each seems eventually they'll need to clamp down their spending. Seeing Meta's stock so rewarded through cost controls makes me think there will be more pressure on Apple to get costs down if these flops keep coming.

Good posts. Agreed. Besides, it's not likely these films will make a dent in subscriber growth for the streaming services. With that said, I'm glad Napoleon and Killers were made but yes, it's not sustainable.

Bob Marley picking Madame Web's weekend instead of any of the empty January/February ones

Dam it’s too bad they nixed the Rick grimes theatrical movie. I think with the well received spinoffs and return of Rick it could have done 50+ OW this month. I’m interested to see if that series can bring back 4million -6 million viewers at least for the premiere

I feel like they shouldn't have come out to deny that Taylor Swift wrote Argylle. Maybe some of her fans would have accidentally showed up.

Argyle definitely benefit ed from Vaughn goodwill, I thought maybe 23, but sure fire miss trying to do too much franchising